Itstrainingtime

I want that every bit as much as you do, trust me. The only upside to many smaller events is you obviously tend to have snow cover longer. But there's nothing like the excitement leading up to, and during a crippling snowstorm. Best of times for me right there.

This is 100% truth - and because of this, I think odds favor "surprise" events that suddenly trend in our favor in the near term, and I think we'll also lose potentially good looks the same way. Watching something 7-10 days out right now I think should be for entertainment purposes only.

I was going to address this with you - I know you're looking for the grand slam right now, but I think we're much more likely to see storms depicted as big dogs in advance, only to see them trend weaker in time. Doesn't mean we won't/can't get significant amounts of snow - but right now I don't see signs of what you want. (for now)

That...is perfectly said. Word for word.

The NAM has some SERIOUS limitations. That's indisputable. One thing that I love about it is this - if guidance is showing a storm missing south and the NAM is further north and amped, a lot of times the rest of guidance will follow it. Not always, but my first "sign" to get excited is when the NAM is north of everything else. That's a double edged sword as well - there are times when the NAM is north of what we would want and other guidance nails us. We'll often fail while areas north of I 80 get smoked. It's wonky, it's jumpy, and yes, it can throw out absurd QPF amounts. It sounds like you use it similar to what I do - I just look for the positives that it can contribute, which there are some.

I highly doubt next Tuesday's storm cuts. I'd bet money it goes underneath...question is, how far underneath...

Red tagger just made this post in the thread to our south - this really resonates with me. I bolded what I've been saying for some time. I particularly like the last statement. During La Niña, models tend to over amplify weather systems several days out from onset. Overamped, too much moisture, only to see it correct toward the onset time. This latest event is a prime example as across the board guidance was giving a 6-10” area wide event and more like 10”+ on the euro, only to cave to a minor system...even by I-70 standards. Last storm very similar with the euro giving 25-30” at day 4/5 only to be cut back. For the hobbyist, it might be a sting to the gut, but for those working in the field, the inconsistency and wild swings have made forecast ops and communication to high level partners even up into high tier Gov partners a nightmare! Briefings for these “major” events that crop up at day 3-5 in NWP gain attention quickly then to have the rug pulled after you’ve messaged people is tough. One factor, could be minor, but it is a factor in such inconsistent data is the lack of domestic air travel in the U.S. we know the euro model in particular relies on aircraft data which air travel is 1/10th of what it was. Same with other guidance. Perhaps other factors we don’t know about. Niña years are tough as it is. Two conclusions I can draw from this season is... 1) the euro is not what the euro was, and 2) the NAM is useful outside its perceived “wheelhouse”. NAM is great at depicting changes, details in the pattern evolution that is not seen in the globals. It’s done well this season in that regard, overdone with front end waa snow. 3) it’s guidance only! Not verbatim. Know your patterns and climo vs model chasing.

This is probably the only thing we disagree on buddy. I do like the NAM a lot more than you do - in no way do I think it's great but I think it's better than what most give it credit for. It absolutely nailed the January 2016 storm, and as I recall it did well with some of the biggies back in '09-'10. Honestly, this winter, I'm not trusting any model.

Well done...it seemed out of character for you.

I hope for once the GFS is right. It has been AWFUL this winter - I mean, on the 0z run last night it was still showing 6" for me overnight. I ended up with less than 2". For the 2 big storms we did get this year it was the last to the party. I'm more trusting of the NAM these days than the GFS. Hopefully the Para is better.

You did better than you thought you would. Unless you were being sarcastic last night with your 1-2" call.

1.8" here. Season total stands at 27.2".

@Mshaffer526 What's happening over near the Gap Town Clock?

40 years ago, me. Today? Not a chance.

Very light snow started here about 30 minutes ago. Car topper so far.

@losetoa6 Welcome to our thread and please keep posting here as you wish - you and @Blizzard of 93 are the board's eternal optimists, so you both might as well post in the same thread.

Welcome! You are close to me - I live just outside of Maytown on the Mount Joy side very close to the air strip.

It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong.

Horst: Wednesday Update: A weak system will slide by to our south tonight w/ intermittent snow btwn 8pm - 8am. Temps aloft are good for making dendrites, so it may do well, despite other limitations. 2 - 4" is a good bet along the Rt-30 corridor...perhaps up to 5" on some SoLanco hills.

In between Zwyts and Deck Pic he was "Westminster Deathband" which I loved as well.

You have the best name on the entire board - hands down. Resume weather talk...

I mean...the Route 30 bypass opened when I was 5...so I guess...

By default, sure. I've been in Lanco for 56 years, so I've seen enough to blame me for anything.

Interesting. I wonder if I changed to rain being further south? The only memorable weather event for me between 1979 and 1993 was the 2/12/1983 blizzard. We had a nice snowstorm in 1987 but it was a heavy snow with no wind that melted in 2 days. 1983...I had 5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm at the height of the storm with multiple lightning flashes and loud thunder. It was a fairly progressive storm that I still got 24.5" from. Man, if we only would have had a block...

I was born in 1965 - so I basically grew up in the 70s. Parents would often tell me during my childhood as a snow lover how much things changed shortly after I was born. The 70s were not kind - I watched with despair as the Virginas and Carolinas kept getting smoked while I was looking south through filtered sun.