Itstrainingtime

Well...Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz was discussing this live on TV at 4...

For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals.

As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology"

@Festus Here is Mark Ellinwood's map - I always thought he did a tremendous job with snowfall predictions:

I know...nothing easy about PA snows in a Nina. We have to scratch and claw our way to victory.

Euro, NAM, and Icon all look similar now. (except for the NAM's second max up into true CPA)

CTP just hoisted warnings from Perry County down to Franklin and SE of there it looks like. Edit: Fulton County on east. Edit (2): That includes the Skook as well!

@Mshaffer526 I think CTP had a map this morning with 9" "Expected" for LNS.

They cut it by 1/3. LNS was 9" on the previous map...

I say they update between 3:30 -4:00. They want to take a good look at the king first. (NAM)

I'll bite on point #3 - we've been lacking a large temperature gradient for much of the winter that has hampered the development of large storms. This is an overexaggerated example - as we roll into March, I'd anticipate a bigger range (gradient) and the opportunity for larger storms to present itself.

That is 100% correct! Para was a biggy snowstorm north and south of the Rt. 30 corridor...Euro filled the center of the sandwich and removed the buns.

Yes - this run as depicted helped those who traditionally mix at the expense of those who don't.

For us...it might actually be better. For those north, obviously not. We might get a little more white gold at the expense of mixing.

I hate my instincts... I woke up today with a bad feeling. Don't know why.

Pretty sure Brian is working right now. I have the inside scoop.

It's fascinating how we allow thoughts to cloud our perspective - there hasn't been a dramatic shift in guidance and I was never expecting anything more than what guidance suggests today. I said early on that 3-6" was my first call and I'm sticking with it. I think sometimes seeing map after map that shows amounts that double that..."distract" me, or influence my judgement, I really need to tune those out even more. To me, this is a 3-6" snowfall for Lanco with significant ice to follow and I'm sticking with it.

I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today... Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm. My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie.

I'm every bit as ugly in person as my pic suggests. This has been talked about before, we really should do this.

I'm 5 miles south of Elizabethtown - I can't tell you how many times the landscape has been whiter in Bear country and then down here in the land of the Tribe. In these situations - latitude, and to some extent longitude absolutely matter.

I want as much QPF as possible as early as possible - let's get it cranking and take our chances.

Yes, he's not afraid to go against ALL guidance...and he's usually spot on OR even he underplays the advancement of the warmth aloft. Sterling is going 6-8" in Harford and Cecil counties, hence my post that someone is going to bust.

Yes. Can't agree more - can't get good amounts of snow without the QPF to produce it.

Someone's going to bust hard in Lanco - Horst going for 2-5" south of Rt. 30 and 4-8" north...and once again, believes that a changeover will occur long before models say it will...

I shared your sentiment with my wife. Her eyes got really big and all she said was "if only." (She was thinking we're getting 1-3" of SNOW so this surprised her)