Itstrainingtime

And a lot of snow maps showing 10-16" over the southern tier.

Admittedly...I'm fighting negativity hard right now for this very reason. It has been brutal the past several years along the southern tier. I haven't shoveled in nearly 4 years. (Last year I did have a decent event but even that didn't amount to anything on paved surfaces)

This is what I was saying yesterday. It's going to be brutal and it's going to be close to us.

We need the Euro to make another step north. My fear is something else...

RGEM and the ICON to an extent imply snow showers.

RGEM is mostly a 1-2" deal east of the river.

I completely understand why no one commented on the ICON and the RGEM.

Precip shield shrunk on the NE fringe perhaps?

Let's hope that's true for all of us.

I post much less on weekends as we're usually on the go. Weekends are follow the leader, and to be clear, I'm not the one in front. Weekends are "yes, dear" days. Chief reason why we've made it this far. I know my role.

Going to be a wild ride the next 48 or so hours. I just don't buy the Euro's 150-200 mile wide band of 1-3". I think the gradient ends up much tighter.

Are you sure that map you shared was what they were forecasting, or was that one model simulation? I saw something similar on a different station but the met stressed that what they showed was NOT their prediction. They were showing different potential scenarios.

THAT cutoff looks realistic to me. Would not be surprised to see it play out like that...but where will it set up???

I approve for sure.

So far I like what I'm seeing...

Temp is 29.4 with light snow - what your wife reported came through here a short time ago and bolstered my total to 0.7". "Good snows" lasted about 15 minutes.

A very rare time when I have slightly more than you. (and not much at that )

First flakes started 90 minutes ago - probably been about 45 minutes now for steady light snow.

Blasphemy! I thought 100% sure last night I was in line for 15.5"! BTW - it is a truly beautiful scene here right now. A nice snowfall that is now coating all surfaces and 31 degrees. Time for a walk.

PSU Hoffman shared his thoughts on this subject within the past half hour in the MA thread. Said it better than I did here but the same message.

This dude predicted a light to moderate snowstorm during the 10 days surrounding New Year's 63 days ago. And while climo says that probabilities are high during that time, this is still a pretty good take in what was forecast by many to be a dud winter. Of course, it hasn't happened yet.

Sizzling off the presses: (you want to be south of the turnpike) https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

We worded things differently but what you said is exactly what I was trying to say. This isn't the storm that you want to be in the blues going in. That sounds weird but I totally believe that it's true.

On the contrary to my somewhat optimistic post above - The concerning thing to me with regard to the Euro is that the warning level snows are about 50 miles south of the M/D line and that puts a lot of the LSV at 100 miles or so away. That's a pretty significant distance at this time frame. And also, I'm not sure that I buy how big of an area is in the blues. I think in the past when storms encountered confluence of this magnitude there was a razor sharp edge to the snowfall that the Euro simply isn't portraying today. Feb 2010 saw a 75 mile difference between 0" and 24"+.

Flurries and 33 in Maytown. Most important thing I saw from the Euro is it didn't move further south.