Itstrainingtime

Very true. So...why post dozens of NAM snow maps over the past few days if you know it's so inaccurate?

Honestly...truly...and what I have honesty thought for days now, that looks like a map that I would create for this event. I do think that Cashtown and maybe Bubbler up to Carlisle does a little better than that, but I would not be surprised if that map is close for a lot of us. Including the greater Harrisburg area. Ready to eat crow as needed.

18z Euro - I'm 10 miles away from 1".

58" on 2 separate runs for the 1/22/2016 storm. First run was centered just east of Lancaster and the next run it was up near Allentown. We were having fun with that in our thread. That same storm, one of the NAM runs painted almost 5" of QPF over Carlisle. (They did end up with nearly 40" of snow)

I think the 6" line should maybe be a little NW of where he has it, but on the whole this is actually pretty good I think?

Mark Ellinwood just posted his final call in the MA thread - he moved his contours NW but admitted that he thought about moving them farther NW. (he's pessimistic about his amounts)

Keep your chin up - plenty of snow maps show a lot more than that for you.

Did I just see the low sitting off the Jersey coast next Sunday?

Roundtop is opening up again tomorrow. Their snow making team kills it.

That is true; however, most of those storms were 24+ hour events. The main show for tomorrow is going to be in a 6-9 hour window.

LOL, nope, it was not. But thanks for the insult. It's obvious that being a realist is equivalent to being negative. You have no clue how many times over the years that your pretty snow maps resulted in nothing more than a bunch of puddles in my backyard. As a realist (based off dozens and dozens of prior experiences) I will remain skeptical (not negative) until I have reason to be different otherwise. Those snow maps mean very little to what will actually happen. Funeral...geez, I thought we were having fun. It's not fun any longer though.

It is somewhat interesting that this is the 5th consecutive run that the low was SE of the previous run...

Yesterday's AFD from CTP even mentioned a severe threat with this - I remember a few severe storms in February (had a significant threat/Tornado Warning just in the past 5-6 years) but to have one in early January has to be exceptionally rare.

GFS is also very wet - over 1" of QPF for us. I think that matters a lot for us to win on this one.

Could be a few different takes on this. Either way, I'm betting the under.

Saw a well-respected met share these thoughts in the MA storm thread...interesting (and sobering) "The pattern is missing key features that would generate a solid winter storm not just for the MA but for the Northeast as well. How many arctic intrusions with wind chill headlines and sub zero air masses over the northern Plains and Great Lakes this season. None. Very abnormal to see this over an extended period like we have. Bass boats were being launched on the lakes in Minnesota on 12/27, on a lake where cars normally drive on with thick ice. Something is amiss and yes it would take a larger scale phenomenon to get it to shift. No mechanisms in place to both drive arctic air in and keep it. Pattern is not amplified like needed. No blocking, no ridging out over the western U.S. we get cool passages with modified air. Not going to get it done. El Niño is only one factor. That just guarantees more southern stream energy, drought going away with ample moisture but it does NOT necessarily mean more snow. No cold air to produce. PSU is correct in his assessment. Going to take a more persistent change or else it’s more of the same."

4-8" might end up well NW of Harrisburg.

Another thing I was thinking about yesterday - whatever happened to the winter days where snow flurries and squalls happened several times each winter? I remember so many days when I was younger when the forecast was "mostly cloudy today with on and off snow flurries and squalls....the ground may be whitened from time to time..." We seldom if ever have those days anymore...especially down this way.

It is rapidly becoming more and more likely that my no shoveling streak will continue. 2021 was my last shovel. Just an unprecedented run ongoing. And yes, I'm aware that we've had rough stretches before (I am 58 years old) but nothing in my lifetime matches this futility.

I thought CTP's map yesterday was a kick in the loins...and then they somehow topped it:

MU cautioned last evening that MUCH could change overnight/today. Both good OR bad. He had very low confidence in his snow map for being less than 48 hours out. New map coming later today...

Of all of the bad, highly inaccurate snow maps, that version might be the worst.

If the Euro and some of the Meso's end up correct, PLEASE let this be a reminder that nothing is written in stone 48 hours out. (or more) Some here thought we were immune to major changes on Wednesday night and even yesterday. There have been plenty of storms that 24 hours out, looked like the mix line would set up over Lanco. The reality is that it set up over the northern tier counties and even southern NY state. And that's not an exaggeration. Every storm is different and has nuances...but the idea of the mix line ending up WAY farther NW than modeled happens more often than some people want to remember. We can hope this one is different. I remain skeptical.

Pretty much right back to where we were 24 hours ago.

MU's map is out but can't post on my phone. 1-3" south of turnpike, 3-6" for most everyone else in the LSV. He said significant changes can still occur...