Itstrainingtime

Today is a new day. I had a very rough day personally yesterday but in a better frame of mind this morning. Hopefully one of the many pieces of energy rotating east can get us over the next couple of weeks.

How did you have access to model runs back then?

Yet another kick in the nuts for Lanco.

Razor sharp western cutoff that was modeled to be 50-75 miles too far west. I filed that away for future reference - that was not the first time that happened in Lanco...I think it was March 2001 (?) we were forecast to receive up to 2 feet of snow...ended up with 2' of partly cloudy.

Ukie also has the Monday/Tuesday storm - looking at the maps for the Ukie, the first thing that comes to mind is the Boxing Day debacle about 10-12 years ago when I saw flurries, Philly received 8", and most of NJ had between 20-30". (forecast for Lanco for that storm was for 6-12" and we were under a Winter Storm Warning the morning of the storm...but I saw nothing but a few scattered flakes)

CTP vs. Elliott - the showdown is hours away!

(1/4) For snow-lovers in south-central PA, tomorrow's storm isn't it. There are just too many things "wrong" with the setup. First, surface temps tomorrow afternoon are going to be in the mid 30s N/W of I-81 to low 40s along the MD Line.. too high for much if any snow to stick.. (2/4) Next, a rain/snow mix will overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast between ~7-11 AM before changing over to rain from south-to-north after midday. Here's the problem: precip prior to midday should generally be on the light side.. (3/4) Any AM light snow will struggle to overcome the strong March sun and high ground temps, making accumulation difficult if not impossible. Finally, the upper-level low (ULL) will track just to our north, and colder air/steadier precip are found north/east of a ULL's center.. (4/4) To sum it up, roadways will just be wet tomorrow.. great news for motorists! Areas S/E of I-76/Rt 15 will struggle to receive a coating of snow on non-paved surfaces, & 1-2" amounts farther N/W should be confined to higher terrain above 750 ft. Even that isn't a guarantee..

Kinda bold...here's Elliott: Due to the milder trends with tomorrow's storm & my expectation for no snow accumulation on paved surfaces, I've deemed a snow map unnecessary for this event. Any winter-weather road concerns & meaningful snow amounts should be confined to areas along/north of I-80

Here's CTP's updated (noon today) snowfall forecast - everyone gets something except for... you guessed it! Lancaster!

Dumb question - what is the difference between a zone forecast and point and click? I picked downtown Harrisburg and the forecast on P&C is for less than a half inch.

Just saw that - it will change many times but as depicted on THIS run we're on both the western and southern edge of decent snowfall. I'd love to see a thread-coverage win...at least for the entire LSV who has done nothing short of abysmal this year.

Welp... A 995 low pressure off of OBX and this is my result: A rainstorm. Sigh.

My train is moving due east about 75 miles west of East Palestine Ohio...

Dear God - local NWS office out west in their morning package/AFD mentioned snow accumulations for the impending storm beginning this afternoon of 90 - 120". Then another 3-4' early next week.

Part of me wants to laugh but mostly that makes me want to cry.

I'll sign now for that.

Ouch for most of Lancaster/York...

I'm not sure that the Euro is right with this, but let's play along and say that it is - given the location, track, and intensity, it's really hard to believe we wouldn't have gotten more snow out of that solution.

That was taken yesterday in town - in advance of the 5-7' coming starting tomorrow... Ski area is now making plans on possibly being the first U.S. ski resort to not close during a calendar year.

Okay...time to fess up and come clean...I was NOT in meetings this morning. A friend took this pic of me out on my morning walk:

Euro actually deepens the low right off the NC coast and moves slowly up the coast. Verbatim it's really close to a much bigger outcome, especially for eastern PA.

Map in question: (maybe more falls after this @paweather)

Definitely NOT 3-4" across the LSV from what I see on Pivotal...many areas yes, but again to say "all of the LSV" is just not accurate.

Read as you desire and have time: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

So...my period of interest is bringing everyone snow but me? That ain't supposed to be the drill here! LOL