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Itstrainingtime

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Posts posted by Itstrainingtime

  1. 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    The 3K has some fairly severe looking cells later today.  My problem with the above...both forecasts are models, who is to say the MJO forecast was better than the ground truth?  This past winter the MJO forecasts moved drastically day to day especially late in the season.  If the MJO was fact then yea, this would be a more valid point but, IN MY OPINION, picking one or the other to believe has a component of guessing. 

     

    Can't argue that at all. 

    • Like 1
  2. Just now, Bubbler86 said:

    I am very much hoping we all get rain tomorrow. 

     

    Same - especially with this waiting in the wing: (good meteorology lesson here from MU)

     

    (1/3) Forecasting 101: How to use the MJO to beat computer models. 4-5 days ago, the models were suggesting an abrupt shift to an unseasonably cold pattern in the East from April 8-18. Some even showed a major, late-season snowstorm in PA on April 9/10!

     

    (2/3) At the same time, they were forecasting the MJO to become active in phases 6/7.. and still are. In an ENSO-neutral April, MJO phases 6/7 favor a #JETSTREAM ridge in the East, & the correlation is strong. Thus, I didn’t bite on the cold & snow, & it’s a good thing I didn’t..

     

    (3/3) Fast forward to today, and the models have caught on to the MJO’s influence on the pattern and now show a sprawling ridge in the East next week. So, after a cooldown #EasterWeekend, expect this week’s unseasonable warmth to come roaring back by the middle of next week!

    • Like 2
  3. Just now, Bubbler86 said:

    No doubt, just hope that uber ridge does not set up both for temps and precip.  Warm is one thing, one to two weeks of a constant "high pressure" is another.  I was not ready for my AC bill to jump yet.   Noticed a little tropical like storm spinning around off the coast of Florida. 

     

    That ridge has been there is some fashion for months. 

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