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lakeeffectkid383

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Everything posted by lakeeffectkid383

  1. lakeeffectkid383
    May be just be the site I’m using but looks pretty darn close to the metro to me.
  2. lakeeffectkid383
    12z Euro has a nice band right through the metro for 12 hr +...
  3. lakeeffectkid383
    Euro actually looks okay for some synoptic west of ROC, 3-6”. Absolutely skunks from ROC east though. Really wish we could get a run to make everyone on here happy for X-Mas.
  4. lakeeffectkid383
    Damn BuffaloWeather was right, that run is like 48 hours locked and loaded at Erie County.
  5. lakeeffectkid383
    alot of that is rain from the front lol.
  6. lakeeffectkid383
    That’s a rock in band into BUF, about the only good thing about the storm cutting West. No synoptic snow but I’d trade that in a heart beat for a beast band of lake effect right into the metro.
  7. lakeeffectkid383
    Lake effect does set up nicely right into BUF verbatim but we get virtually no synoptic anywhere in Upstate. Really sucks for people outside the lake effect areas.
  8. lakeeffectkid383
    If this thing cuts west over us or just to our west there is no synoptic snow to speak of lol.
  9. lakeeffectkid383
    That’s expected, low end is 7” at BUF and high end map looks same as expected map with 13” at BUF.
  10. lakeeffectkid383
    BUFs first map. Gonna bust big time. Lmao.
  11. lakeeffectkid383
    Through hour 90, smh
  12. lakeeffectkid383
    06z Euro looks like the GFS, not much in the way of synoptic snow anywhere in Upstate. What a turn of events. We still have time for things to change but not the trends we want to see. Maybe no white X mas after all. So 2020 lol.
  13. lakeeffectkid383
    We shall see what happens lol. Definitely a possibility that it doesn’t work out for us the way we want to.
  14. lakeeffectkid383
    06z GFS and NAM look more of a westerly flow. I wouldn’t be surprised as Wolfie pointed out once the storm gets north of us the storm is further east. Anything is still on the table at this point. In fact 00z GFS run went from 20” at BUF to 8”at 06z.
  15. lakeeffectkid383
  16. lakeeffectkid383
    I don’t think we get WSW criteria from the Synoptic part only. Isn’t it like 7” in 12 hours? Just don’t think this system is going to be around long enough as it’s just a wave developing along the front moving quickly off to the North. Should hopefully be a solid advisory criteria though and be a beautiful sight when we wake up Christmas morning.
  17. lakeeffectkid383
    Yeah best run yet for us. Can only hope it holds. 20” for BUF verbatim.
  18. lakeeffectkid383
    No big deal but the NWS did just change the wording in the WSW to “potential for a foot of more” instead of 9” lol. So naturally the 00z suite will back down and look worse for lake effect
  19. lakeeffectkid383
    Hr 84 of the NAM (haha yes I know) looks quite a bit west of its previous run fwiw. Might back the winds more SW if this thing lands up further NW over Ontario... In fact I don’t think anyone east of Batavia sees snow from it synoptically lol.
  20. lakeeffectkid383
    Damn you guys are quick to beat me to it haha.
  21. lakeeffectkid383
    Record for Christmas Day is 8.4” in 2002. Sad record honestly. A definite chance to break it IMO if the band can set up in the right spot: Since 2003 the snowiest Christmas Day at BUF is a lousy 2.2” in 2017. Out of the last 16 Christmas days 12 have had either a trace or no snowfall.
  22. lakeeffectkid383
    Nothing but liquid. Not even that hard either. Bright banding as the freezing layer is likely only a couple hundred feet of the ground.
  23. lakeeffectkid383
    Yes I’d feel great if I were from Hamburg to OP to WS. South Buffalo id feel okay. Here in the Northtowns I’m a little skeptical. No problem chasing a few miles to see some rippage though just give us a band somewhere over Erie County even if it’s not over me directly and I’ll be happy haha.
  24. lakeeffectkid383
    I think they were just itching to issue something with how slow this winter has been so far especially with regards to lake effect: It’s the earliest I can ever remember a watch being issued. Not saying it won’t end up verifying but why rush to jump to a watch when you could realistically wait 24 hours and still have plenty of time to warn people? I would think they would at least want this thing to get in range of the mesos lol.
  25. lakeeffectkid383
    Yep and just like that there goes BUFs potential verbatim. Storm further east bringing less synoptic and more Westerly winds than SW. I’m really surprised they issued a Winter Storm Watch so early when this things still 72 hr + till start of the lake effect. Obviously nothing saying it’s gonna be right, just goes to show one of the possibilities still on the table.
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