gymengineer

I didn’t look carefully until writing the post, but once I looked deeper, Hugo and Fran stood out as truly anomalous beast storms. First, once AOML resolved Hazel’s landfall intensity at 115 knots, it left Hugo as the sole strongest landfall (120 kt) north of Florida on the east coast dating back to the 1850’s! https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html Fran’s landfall was near the top intensity for NC northward. The damage video surveys following Fran are reminiscent more of the major GOM landfalls than a typical east coast hurricane. The videos show rows of homes that were completely swept away Opal and Ivan style by a 12-ft storm surge/violent wave action on North Topsail Beach. Future research for me would include why it’s not so hard to get a Category 2 landfall in NC, but crossing that threshold into major territory takes a special alignment with half-centuries in between.

@WxWatcher007 I’m kind of fascinated at your thoughts about a major hurricane landfall this season, but potentially on the East coast instead of in the gulf. As you pointed out in different words, all the 2005-2024 major landfalls were in the gulf. Are you thinking a higher chance for the Florida east coast like Jeanne (2004) or north of there like Fran (1996)? Or is that too specific? I think few/none of us knew back in 1996 how rare a north of Florida major landfall would be….especially because Fran came in the midst of the extraordinary cluster of NC landfalls from 1996-1999 (Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd), when it seemed like any year could result in a Fran. The 50’s were so anomalous with Carol (‘54), Hazel (‘54), and Gracie (‘59). But since then, it’s only been Hugo (‘89) and Fran (‘96) as major landfalls north of Florida. (Gloria still being on one of the lists is puzzling, but I think we all assume that will end with reanalysis.) It would be quite an extraordinary hurricane to add to that list.

Not very often a still designated as tropical system produces TS wind gusts simultaneously in Nantucket and Bermuda- from 2 am: tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 370 miles (595 km). A wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) was recently reported at the L. F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda, and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was measured at the airport on Nantucket, Massachusetts.

Always a bit jarring to see what is allowed to be posted politically in the main threads (in this case, the Erin thread). I do appreciate the moderation in this subforum.

Pages 3&4: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/34048/noaa_34048_DS1.pdf Edited to add: In case you can’t/not convenient to open the pdf, 1933 would have been an incredible season to track. 2 major hurricane landfalls a day apart- FL Treasure Coast, and Brownsville, TX. An eye-catching part of the paper is that a repeat of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane could cause $30-38 billion in damages today, accounting for population growth, development, etc.

They also have access to HCCA and FSSE, which often are the top performers and even sometimes outperform the official forecast track. There was the whole reveal this past fall of the 2020 contract between NOAA and RenaissanceRe that keeps the HCCA forecasts, with proprietary techniques from the insurance risk firm, from the public for 5 years.

I just don't remember- what were the models showing during the "gone" period for the two January snowstorms last year that came back in under 48-hours? Did they send the snow to our north or to our south in the medium term?

Yup, I have the Philly weather book by his former coworker which describes in detail the fiasco, including the TV crawl he put out way too early to hype up the storm.

I feel like we'd all avoid the peaks and valleys of modeling at range if we adopted the mindset of a NWS meteorologist doing their job. Like no watches issued day 3 and beyond. Snow maps only to 72 hours. Only the range of possibilities discussed in the medium range. Use of probabilities.

At least there was a trend in the medium term and the bust was not literally the day of, which we do regularly.

That’s why I was puzzled when someone brought up 2/89 as an analog as if it were a good thing.

I counted 7 that were 4”+ for parts of this sub forum- what I think you’re referring to as the DMV jackpots. 3 had 10”+ amounts (I didn’t count the 1/19 date because it was too far in date from 1/12-13/19). But only one, 2/06, was a megalopolis storm. That storm as most of us know was very significant, though, as it reached NESIS Category 3.

6.0”

1/1940- 21” at Richmond, 9.5” in DC, 12” in southeast DC, 24” into PG county.

That was the measurement issue I was referring to. It was the 1/2016 blizzard. Here's the service assessment report where they acknowledged the snowboard issue but refused to change the result (see page 20): https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/2016_blizzard_snowfall_evaluation.pdf