PhineasC
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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion
PhineasC replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
As has been case for the last few winters, we need to wait for the atmosphere to start shuffling in March and then hope for 30 days of winter before we enter chilly mud season. -
This winter is so lame. Hope spring comes early, but I’m sure the super blocking and negative NAO will show up in April just in time to make spring miserable.
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The snow gods are real.
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He’s the kind of guy that said flying machines would never happen and the first time one crashed he shook his cane towards the wreckage and said, “I told you so!!” A new dinosaur for our era.
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The Canadian models run warm because it’s always so cold in Canada being off by a few degrees doesn’t matter.
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Past history has tended to show that when the Euro remains stubborn, the other models eventually cave to it. Not scientific, just a gut feel thing around here.
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Seems like the rare times we do have 18 degree snow, the flake size sucks and it's basically pixie dust, so I agree people have the wrong impression about this. We almost always overestimate ratios here. They seem to usually end up 10:1 or below on average. Only things more overhyped are ice storms and inches-per-hour expectations.
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Seems like a good thing if the cold high is slowing it down and pushing it south.
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Why look at a storm 11 days away when the models are jumping all over the place on this first one? There is very little chance they have the second storm even close to right yet.
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LOL Kirk Cousins is such a dope.
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I’m ok with super deep cold and dry versus this mild weather like we have upcoming.
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Prime climo for snow for this region is now the month of March. It hardly ever snows December and January any more.
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Great job with your model reading lately, keep up the good guessing.
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Don't worry, the snow will all be gone soon and then you can disappear again.
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Look great to me!
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I would describe this snow as more like the tar from an emphysemic smoker's lungs after a three pack a day habit for 40 years... but yeah still awesome.
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Models often overdo the "second phase" of these events. and the HRRR/RAP at range are really suspect. Based on radar, things are winding down, could be some bursts here and there, sure. Great event. So often things are boom or bust around here. Always nice to get a "standard" 4-6 inch snowstorm for the area. Like your grandpa used to frequently enjoy from DEC 1 to MAR 1 before our climate was apparently screwed up. LOL
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SREFs have burned us many times. They can appear to be very stubborn which makes it seem that they have caught on to some trend ahead of the other models, but then it turns out they are just crap and were way off the whole time. People also forget to take out the outliers (high and low) to produce the mean. There are some real garbage members in there (various ARW - Always Really Wet and NMM - Never Much Moisture runs) that always mess up the mean.
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What's the HUUURRR saying?
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Figures Chuck would be hugging the RAP. Fits the mental profile.
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You always do well. Snow starts early and ends late.
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LOL 4 inches coming soon.
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The true jackpot king right here.
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The forecast of 8-12 for DCA is a joke. They MIGHT record 5 or 6. Of course, just outside the airport could definitely verify those numbers.
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Of course you start snowing before many other people. Just as predicted. It won't stop snowing there until Monday. Fringe city!
