Weatherdemon

18z GFS similiar...

Another storm to crush our hopes by Monday.

20 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

It’s snowing in Bentonville per the radar yet absolutely nothing is happening outside.  Dry air I guess???

It took about 30 minutes for the lower levels to saturate enough to get snow to the ground here.

18 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Oh I know, I am actually in shock still from that 1"er the other day. The inner child in me and snow lover is still craving a good 8" snow storm though man! So what happened, did you even get anything up there from that lil snow? Someone we know in bentonville said they did not get squat so who knows, maybe was just luck of the draw here that time lol

It fell fast enough to make my neighborhood road mostly white from a pic my wife sent. Made some elevated surfaces white in downtown Tulsa. Was fun walking back from lunch with some snow!

3 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Well that was pretty much a non event bust last night lol, shocker. Had a little tiny bit of sleet off and on and some flurries here and there today but was nothing bad at all.

Yep. They extended the WWA a couple of hours and expanded it then cancelled it about 30 minutes early.

Models don't show anything as far out as I can see.

Since forecast events dies off within a couple of days of occurrence, can we not get a modeled non-event to turn into a surprise 3-4 inches?

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Surprised there isn't more talk about tonight. Looks to be a "decent" snow/ice event, considering how little talk there has been on here.

WWA for NE OK until 10PM for a glaze of ice, a little sleet, and maybe a touch of snow.

2 hours ago, garfan said:

A zoomed in look at NOAA's latest snow cover depth map. Notice the I-44 corridor is bare. 

Very frustrating.

2 hours ago, mbkemp said:

We lived in Owasso the last three years and south east kansas for 10 or so before that. I remember lots of snow especially in northern oklahoma before we moved down there.


.

Is that what happened here?

You’re so moving back! 

Another cold rain.

At least there is some lightning, thunder, and wind though.

HRRR shows a decent thunderstorm in Tulsa tonight but has backed off on snow

12z HRRR not too far off the 6z RGEM

34 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Hmmmm. Nam entertaining the idea of some snow after all up here. 1-2 inches with a very narrow band of 6 inches. If the low closes off, someone in NE OK/NW AR may get a surprise out of this. Not holding onto my breath though.

 

HRRR liking some snow in E OK.

Just now, MUWX said:

I wouldn't jump ship based on the 18z nam, but I would also stop getting my hopes up 5+ days in advance of the storm.

Haven't had my hopes up about anything with this storm.

One run doesn't kill it but, this is about the time frame that the models had begun to kill off the previous storms.

On queue, the NAM kills the snow in NE OK.

4 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

If I'm not mistaken the Euro lead the way on last weekend's system. 

Big shift N from previous run.

Thanks for the trend images.

I would love to see 3-5 around here but, based on recent trends, I expect the models to start moving the system too far N or dry slot us. I do like where the NAM is placing the L in SW OK at the end of its run but expect that to change or for the L to weaken as it turns NE.

For Tulsa county, running H/L averages using GFS, v3, CMC, ICON, GEM, GEFS1-20, Euro1-50, C, M:

Low end average of 1.4 - high end average 2.5 with an overall average of 1.9.

Not super exciting at this point.

Buddy of mine just told me he was stuck in Sapulpa for several days after the GHD storm.

bring it!!!

2 minutes ago, ouamber said:

ICON is a model, and Groundhog Day storm from 2011. 

Thanks. I’ve never heard of ICON

1 hour ago, ouamber said:

hmmmm..wondering how much the weekend storm can dig and how low is the HP above it going to be? 18Z ICON looks similar to the GHD storm of 2011. 

I don’t get lost very often but, what is the ICON and GHD storm?

3 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

So for some of our Missouri and Kansas friends... this is an amazing storm. Highest total I have seen officially I believe is 14.5" in Columbia. They should get another 3-6" more before the system wraps up (maybe a bit more). Over 20"! WOW. 

That’s crazy!!!

GoT’s lies!

Winter is not coming! LOL!

At least here anyway... 39 and cold rain all day...

Another system tracking just far enough in one direction to keep us with cold rain.

I think we're N, S, S, N on the too far directions so far.

Tulsa NWS thoughts...

It’s a long way off but, the CFS shows a prolonged period of below freezing temps and four waves moving through between 1/23-1/30 for OK.

Most favorable pattern I’ve seen so far for winter weather chances this season.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Rain and freezing rain. Ice accumulations up to one tenth 
of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Osage, Washington OK, Pawnee and Tulsa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will impact travel 
conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.