Weatherdemon

4 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

NWS delaying onset of precip thus delays wetbulbing,

Hopefully we cool quickly

Actually, looking out my window downtown, things are getting wet. Freezing drizzle shown on radar.

NWS delaying onset of precip thus delays wetbulbing,

Hopefully we cool quickly

2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Local met Mike Collier in Tulsa not even remotely biting on this thing.

Temps concern me as well. All models show it warming above freezing as the event goes on. Are they overdoing the LLJ or under-doing the shallow cold air? I don't know...

3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Beat me to the punch on the GFS!

 

For better or worse, I'm definitely not hearing much about this storm from local news outlets, and we're 24 hours out. I feel like this has the potential to drop 2-3 inches of snow/sleet in the Tulsa metro. But there's a BIG difference between 2 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet.

Agreed. It's seems exceptionally quiet being this close to the event.

And, yea, 2-3 inches of snow is no biggie whereas even an inch of sleet would be rough. 2 inches = shutdown T-Town, LOL.

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

When I saw that map I just laughed...what a cluster....lol.

Like I said earlier, 1/2 inch of sleet is more than enough to turn the roads into havoc; I'm especially worried about the evening rush hour in the Tulsa metro.

 

Here is the 06Z GFS, still aligning with last night's 0Z GFS and then here is the 12Z NAM. Definitely some agreement in these two

 

 

Not much change on 12z v3 and GFS.

8 hours ago, StormChazer said:

The latest gfs bringing the heat on snow/sleet just south of Tulsa. The heavier precipitation is in eastern OK/western AR, if the cold air is stubborn enough and doesn’t recede(as these shallow systems tend to be resistant to the warm air winning out like the models depict) then I think there’s a real possibility of a small swath of moderate snow or sleet combo in said area. I’m concerned on how much of this falls as sleet. I need to check the soundings. 

Several years ago when I lived in Dallas(Denton to be exact) we got FIVE inches of sleet....it shut the city down for about 4 days straight because the sheer amount of ice on the roadways was insane. They called it the cobblestone ice event. When cars would travel on the thick sleet that first day, it carved out inconsistent tracks in the road, and then it refroze each night to this extremely pot hole, bumpy, slick, HARD sheet of ice that made driving literally impossible. Crazy times.

 

All that to say, is half an inch of sleet is enough to turn the roads into an ice skating rink, so I’m curious to see if that’s going to pose a threat in this or not.

 

Tulsa NWS seems like its going with the GF/v3 on QPF and they seem to like more sleet than snow.

NAM/3K/Euro show lower QPF but, Euro shows more snow. I'm thinking the Euro snow amounts include sleet and don't have the right ratios even with the lower QPF.

Anyone who thinks forecasting is easy should look at this NWS map, LOL.

1 hour ago, lokee said:

Yeap and Jonathan Conder from KOCO 

They have to. Especially the OKC guys with the higher potential in their area.

8 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

That advisory will probly push further south, and bust number 6 will take place lol. Ground is just way too warm again, it will probly be another 33-34 degree cold a** rain like every other crappy storm has been this season haha.

You were right! They expanded it south one county.

Its 2-3 degrees colder than expected too.

Bartlesville schools closed. Sleet mixed in as far S as Owasso. Sleet in Owasso is very light and very small though.

Elevates surfaces glazed here too.

At 29-30 degrees right now, we’re close to roads icing. 2-3 degree drop and it would be ugly.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

Benton-Carroll-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, 
Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, and Sapulpa
226 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

* WHAT...A mixture of freezing rain and sleet is expected
beginning late tonight through the day Friday. Total sleet
accumulations of a few tenths of an inch, and ice accumulations
of a light glaze to near a tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
generally along and north of a line from Tulsa Oklahoma to
Bentonville Arkansas.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
during the morning commute on Friday across northeast Oklahoma.
Bridges and overpasses will be the first to be impacted by any
slick surfaces. 

Friday morning looks interesting in N OK.

NAM shows .34 in total liquid precip but has most of that as freezing rain or sleet. Tulsa NWS says NAM temps may be too warm as it warms above freezing after noon.

3K has .14 liquid equivalent and all of it freezing rain or sleet and keeps temps dropping all day.

GFS at .11 with all of it freezing rain or sleet N of I244. It doesn’t have the cold air as far S. GFS showed this system I think on Monday as all snow then dropped it.

V3 keeps measurable precip east of HWY 69 with trace amounts of freezing rain. It is further N with cold air than the GFS too.

1 hour ago, garfan said:

I see the 12Z Euro has moved the higher frozen precipitation amounts mainly along and north of Highway 54 in Missouri. 

00z control dumps on OK.

Got some lightning and thunder in the meantime

1 minute ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Amber....for whatever reason you cant see the snow coming down but its snowing really good currently. Is starting to finally stick now! Looky

Yea! Sticking a little here too!

Enough ice to freeze windshields and car doors.

Enough flurries to put a very light dusting of snow down.

What a waste of another system.

N of here got .25 or more of ice.

Interesting radar earlier tonight N of OKC.

Looks like a chance of freezing drizzle Tuesday night/Wed morning.

Worse kind of precip at the worse time in terms of roads.

V3 coming in with ice for SE OK.

I’m kind of liking having one N and one S.

maybe they’ll meet in the middle!

10 minutes ago, lokee said:

2-2 18z run of GFS

Looks like 3 potential systems Thurs-Sun on this run.

Shallow cold air going to make things interesting. Knowing this season, we’ll be 33 and get 2 inches of rain, LOL.

V3 does except it puts some some decent snow N of I44. 

Hammers NE TX with ice though.

00z GFS siding towards Euro

46 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Based on NWS Tulsa’s disco this afternoon those maps are errors.  They are going with the Euro.  

Fair statements considering their performance this year. They pulled their chiclet snow totals down to 1/3 inch of snow.

“Still some significant differences in the operational models concerning strong upper level storm system that will impact the region Thursday into Friday. Generally trended toward the more compact and progressive ECMWF solution that sweeps strong cold front through the area on Thursday. With this scenario, overall winter weather potential would remain limited as showers/thunderstorms move east before the colder air moves in behind front.”

Interesting.

Sleet should be closer to 3.

Good to know on that model. Thanks!

41 minutes ago, ouamber said:

....and how much of that is actual snow? Cause...if that's ice....

2.5 inches of liquid so I would say mostly snow. 

Freezing rain-->Sleet-->then Snow

18 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Tulsa gets about 3-4 inches of sleet and 1/2 of freezing rain on the GFS 12Z

That would pretty much shut everything down.

Not sure I want that but, I certainly freaking want something exciting this winter!

00z GFS more progressive with ice NW and S of NE OK.

00z V3 with enough ice to cause issues.

06z slower with significant ice.

06z V3 looking close to 00z. 

Euro brings system through fast with moisture gone before air makes in through.

GFS and V3 images below. 06z GFS, 00z then 06z V3.