Weatherdemon

Felt a twinge if hope reviewing models today

Man, I hope so!

OUN sounding indicates cap almost eroded and temps rising. Wind fields indicate linear mode with hail and wind threat per MD 369.

Tulsa NWS said last night we might get a little more. Picked jump almost a half inch here. Roads covered this morning.

It’s 20 here. Some melting happening but not much. Seeing reports that main roads are slick in spots and secondary roads are slick and hazardous.

Our roads are covered. Grass mostly covered. Hard to tell how much since it’s blown around. Maybe an inch. Nice to see though!

All models backing off now...

GFS and v3 hanging tough

Also has the colder air further N at 03z tonight

.1 total QPF

V3 coming in wetter Both it and the GFS have a sharp n/s gradient of snow across Tulsa county. 1-4 and 0-5

LOL! No freaking doubt!!!

Significant QPF differences between US and Euro models for the late weekend system. Over .5 inch.

Models now warming things up too much Sunday with the most precip. Another good snow turning into cold rain, a glaze of ice, and a few flakes of snow.

Tulsa NWS issues WWA N of I44 not including Tulsa for freezing drizzle from midnight - 6PM tomorrow.

Done

It's a lie. IT'S ALL A LIE!!!! LOL... but seriously... cold rain at best should be the expectation.

Tulsa left the WAA up out of concerns for freezing drizzle.

Story of this winter.

This totally blows

Temp 35, TD: 24 Moderate rain. Hoping for some cooling soon.

Heavier precip here now but, it's mixed with rain.

Just got some N of Owasso. Fairly heavy for a few minutes

Mesoscale Discussion 0109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma and Vicinity Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 191807Z - 192200Z SUMMARY...An area of precipitation lifting northward from the Red River will encounter colder air to the north. Both freezing rain and sleet will be possible within the I-44 corridor, including the OKC metro area. Farther northwest, snow will be more likely. Heaviest precipitation should occur between 2-4 pm CST. DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic shows an area of precipitation moving northward out of north Texas and crossing the Red River. Temperatures in the I-44 corridor have risen slightly since this morning to the low 30s with upper 20s to the northwest. A complicating factor in where the highest freezing rain potential will exist is the warmer surface temperatures in northeast Oklahoma leading to modest warm air advection into the discussion area. Dewpoints remain in the low 20s in that region, however, and some decrease in temperature due to precipitation-cooled air is possible as drier air continues to advect in. The 18 UTC OUN sounding shows a pronounced, saturated warm nose of +3-4C centered around 825 mb. This would indicate that freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation in this area, though some sleet is possible within heavier/convective elements. Farther to the northwest, generally colder 850 mb temperatures should keep more of the precipitation as snow. Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur from 2-4 pm CST.

16z HRRR shows a temp of 44 in Tulsa at 21z.