Weatherdemon

18z NAM being generous for NE OK Sat-Sun

It was longer than 5 years ago but, I remember a similar situation. Going 20 on 75 N of downtown in my Durango locked in 4WD. I knew it was stupid slick but I tapped my pedal and all 4 tires spun. My 25 minute drive home took over 2 hours. Cars were off the road everywhere. A school bus got stuck outside my house at like 7:30 that night. I threw down sand and cat litter to help when the school folks could there and my wife was shuttling elementary kids in and out of our bathroom since they had been on the bus for almost 4 hours. .1-.2 of freezing drizzle in the 20’s is a nightmare for drivers.

UGH Snow hole in OK

My hopes for decent precip in NE OK to take advantage of the cold are not high

100 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the higher elevations generally at or above 2000 feet. Below that, 1 to 3 inches are possible. * WHERE...Carroll and Madison Counties. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Not liking the model trends for the weekend snow in OK

Seeing some flurries just S of Collinsville.

Radar more active than I expected this morning.

3rd time it’s snowed here this season. Only accumulated twice but, it’s been nice! Ended up with 2 inches SW of Collinsville.

Just S of Collinsville

Tiny amounts of sleet mixing in with the rain here.

It’s gotta be 32.1 here. my thermometer shows 34 and it’s consistently 2 degrees too warm being on my back porch. Just a cold rain here.

I feel you! I’m a nut hair over 32 here and just rain

We’re at 122nd St N and Garnett back in Country Estates.

Your radar view doesn’t match up with mine.

Norman not real confident... “Still uncertainty about the winter weather (where/what type & how much) over the next couple of days. The forecast will likely change so check for the latest updates.”

For Tulsa as well!

Just saw an NWS report of 2.5 inches around 131st St S and Harvard.

LOL, you live extremely close to me. I'm at work but, my cameras show nada at home

My sis just sent a video from 98th and Memorial. Snow covering the neighborhood roads there.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1019 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020 OKZ057-058-060>067-310000- /O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0010.201230T1619Z-201231T0000Z/ Craig-Ottawa-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee- Wagoner- Including the cities of Vinita, Miami, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, and Wagoner 1019 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Oklahoma. * WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions in heavier snow bands. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Coming down nice at 51st and Sheridan in Tulsa. Pretty fat flakes!

OUN and TSA pretty serious about Monday. OUN AFD for Monday: Model guidance is consistent in showing a very concerning synoptic scale pattern Monday, featuring a powerful upper level jet and significant low level response. 850-mb flow is anomalously strong throughout the day and coincident with moderate to strong instability. Even with extensive warm advection convection early in the day, such a dramatic low-level response can result in rapid recovery and destabilization. The small scale details will determine how expansive and severe the threat is, but some of the more significant severe and tornado events have occurred with similar trough strength/geometry currently indicated in model guidance. Tulsa AFD for Monday... Focus quickly shifts to Monday where significant severe weather is possible including heavy rainfall. Warm front will likely begin to lift north during the day. By late Monday afternoon, moderate to high instability is expected to develop with strong/backed low level winds increasing across northeast Oklahoma as vigorous upper trough swings through New Mexico into the Texas panhandle. NAM forecast point soundings suggest the potential for scattered supercell development over northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon with the threat for a few strong tornadoes. Of course this is still a few days out, however persons still need to be prepared for the potential for significant severe weather Monday night afternoon/evening, especially if this involves outdoor activities

Certainly not good for NE OK. Things are under control right now but could quickly escalate if the expected rainfall is realized over the next 6 days.

SPC mentions strong tornadoes possible: ”Initial storm development will probably be accompanied by a risk for very large hail, with an increasing risk for potential damaging wind gusts in subsequent upscale convective growth. However, in any lingering discrete storm development, the risk for tornadoes could increase by Tuesday evening, with a strong tornado or two possible, before boundary layer instability wanes later Tuesday evening.”