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Stovepipe

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  1. Stovepipe
    My takeaway is NAM is leaning 2-4, 3k NAM is about 3, HRRR is 4-7, for Knox as a baseline for central valley, adjusting the gradient west to east. Edit: So basically inline with what MRX is forecasting. Almost at radar and HRRR watching phase. Edit 2: RAP coming in with a colder temp drop faster, if that matters.
  2. Stovepipe
    Not seeing that, what do you mean?
  3. Stovepipe
  4. Stovepipe
    Thanks to @Holston_River_Rambler I'm just chillin out to some old school stuff. Mrs. Pipe doesn't care for the music though. (I love it)
  5. Stovepipe
    Nice, what is your preferred blend of models or human logic that drove you to this prediction if you don't mind me asking?
  6. Stovepipe
    Assuming the input data keeps flowing, at the pace we are seeing, AI and machine learning will absolutely crack the weather code to the point that humans won't need to interpret much and the forecasts will be as optimal as possible, and soon-ish. As far as who cashes in on it, I don't know. The data is certainly extremely valuable. Anyway, back to snow in Tennessee! Sorry for the diversion.
  7. Stovepipe
    As a GIS nerd I'm gonna give away for free a multi-million dollar idea, super simple. Track verification scores of all weather models. For any given setup, query a set of historical analogs. Assess which weather models verified best in those analog lead-ups. Weight current models accordingly for current situation NBM. There, not perfect but grounded in science and a helluva better blend than what we are seeing today! I'd like 5% of the revenue from the startup that cashes in on that idea please.
  8. Stovepipe
    The idea of the NBM is brilliant; letting smart humans weight the logical computer guidance based on the current situation. But the execution is total s*it. Must be the funding cuts.
  9. Stovepipe
    Not a fair comparison due to the temporal resolution, but timing for Knox relative to RGEM and RAP: Euro has half an inch laid down by 7pm Friday and is winding down by 1pm Saturday. RGEM 7pm-7pm, RAP 8pm-8am. 2 inch difference with the gradient west to east, 3 to 5 inches 10:1. Can't see Kuchera on free Pivotal but looks like maybe 5 to 7 based on Reb's image.
  10. Stovepipe
  11. Stovepipe
    Big timing difference between current 03z RAP and 0z RGEM (for Knox) - RGEM snow 7pm Fri to 7pm Sat, RAP 8pm Fri to 8am Sat with similar totals. Would lean towards RGEM at this time but still interesting.
  12. Stovepipe
    The RAP is comin' in hot.
  13. Stovepipe
    So 0z RGEM for Knox verbatim starts snowing at 7pm Friday and stops 7pm Saturday - 4 to 6 inch snow gradient across the county west to east.
  14. Stovepipe
  15. Stovepipe
    Will feel more confident tomorrow, but as of now I'm feeling a 1 to 4 inch feast or famine event across Knox county for this one.
  16. Stovepipe
    I got the thing maximized on a 55 inch TV I'm using as a third monitor with the music playing. Very very cool, thanks @Holston_River_Rambler!
  17. Stovepipe
    MRX mentioning the potential for some high ratio snow next weekend and close to record breaking cold. By Friday, troughing to the northwest will deepen and become more broad with the Arctic high reaching 1045mb or greater as it progresses into the Great Plains. There will also be focus in the Gulf and Atlantic where a strong system is expected to develop and track up the coast through the weekend. Based on the latest data, this track continues to keep impacts well to our east. However, as the Arctic high expands into the area, moisture may be sufficient for light snow Friday into Saturday. QPF totals currently looks to be light, but the extent of cold air suggests snow ratios would be high. Regardless, the more significant impact will be another expansion of bitterly cold air, potentially worse than we are currently seeing. Ensemble data suggests 850mb temperatures to drop below -15 Celsius, possibly even near -20 Celsius. Values this low are nearing record values and certainly not seen with regularity. Highs on Saturday may struggle to get out of the teens for many with single digits for some a couple of nights. Saturday and Sunday will likely be below freezing area-wide, at a minimum. So any snow that does fall could be here for a few days.
  18. Stovepipe
    Never got to see the good flakes in north Knox, but ground got frosty at 24 degrees with all the frozen mist and mix. Bracing for the cold week ahead, can't complain too much in east TN, could be worse.
  19. Stovepipe
    Dropped below freezing and the drizzle-mist turned into a light frozen mix; 31.6 and dropping.
  20. Stovepipe
    32 degrees and absolutely pouring rain right now in Halls. This could have been beautiful, but you playing mother nature.
  21. Stovepipe
    Knoxville's sister city is Atlanta holding steady at 32!
  22. Stovepipe
    I should have clarified that I'm only observing the roads in my neighborhood; haven't driven around.
  23. Stovepipe
    Latest RAP has some areas in east TN peaking at 52 degrees.
  24. Stovepipe
    Rain and 29 degrees in Halls. Very minor icing on vehicles and driveway, roads are just wet. I doubt we have any real problems here unless the surface temps move in the opposite direction from the models.
  25. Stovepipe
    Latest RAP has most of east TN surface temps going above freezing around midnight then climbing into the lower to mid 40s.
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