EastonSN+

EPS weeklies or just GEFS?

I mean in a sense of expectations. Last year we once we hit the end of December the guidance showed garbage. This year guidance had blocking SSW bug early season snowstorm etc

I think we have a great shot at an average snowfall year. We scored big in December, and if this 3 week period produces a few hits (say 1 6 to 12, 1 3 to 6 and 1 1 to 3) we should be good. March is ALWAYS a wildcard no matter the enso. So many great years like 13/14 with a March shutout or bad years like 18/19 or 91/92 with great Marches. I will say this - if we do not reach average snowfall this year with the December we had as well as the blocking, it would be the most disappointing year I can remember.

In another thread they mentioned another SSWE is likely to occur. Probably would put us in where we are now with blocking and Pacific air.

Curious to know what the upper Pacific SSTs looked like in 2011. Also we had 2 accumulating snowfalls past January. 2.5 before changing to a lot of rain and 4.5 before changing to ice. 7 inches after going into NINA mode in 2011 is hardly a shut out. If we can get a couple heavy snowstorms before NINA flip then mimick Feb March 2011 we will be in great shape considering the storm we had in December

You bring up a good question. I NEVER clear, I only report snow measurement to NWS on snow depth for current storm. I always wondered if all these 30 plus measurements lately are people who clear.

Was great in Western half of CT too. 27 in SW CT

Thanks Don, I think it was Allsnow who showed evidence that the weeklies automatically default to a Nina base state weeks 5 and 6. Basically showed that look weeks 5 and 6 for weeks never to materialize. I know this is too far out to speculate, however would a reshuffle to the recent December look be as likely as a reshuffle to a Nina base state? I never really understood why Nina's have cold Decembers.

95/96 was a true wire to wire winter. First accumulation in November last in April. There was a 2 week lull late Jan. December rocked.

Like 1978 left hook Miller a right hook Miller b knock out.

Is the weenie bun for pegging someone as an optimistic snow lover, or is it an FU? Maybe I have used it wrong which would be negligent in my part.

I want January February AND March to rock! Then 80s in April. Thanks

Please elaborate on the differences

I did not care for that EURO run to be honest.

Thanks. Will look at the long range in 5 days.

March 2018 same thing happened and we all had a historic month with the March sun angle and all. We may be disappointed in the end but I would roll the dice with a March 2018 in January any day.

Don't have day 15 eps however below are GEFS and GEPS. Like the GEPS better as looks like GEFS has SER.

Out of curiosity what went wrong with the LR from couple days ago? Did blocking disappear? Did the improving pac look disappear?

Think it's always been a race between improving pac and how long blocking stays. Thought that was 15th through Feb 1 as the sweet timeframe.

From what I have been reading it seems like the Para is a scoring higher than GFS.

Would be ironic if we finally get great blocking AND a sswe and we rain. I think with that look though we can snow with a good track. We lose CAD swfe ability but gain KU potential.

I would be po'd to the extreme if it went down like that

So confused my shades are now tangled.

Yeah looks that way on GEFS and GEPS (don't have EPS). Obviously out in fantasy land so may never verify but this is an improvement.

It's amazing third winter in a row that we had good early season snowfall that rolled into a crappy pattern. All different reasons.