CapturedNature

On 2/26/2020 at 5:00 PM, LibertyBell said:

what frustrates me is that we've been talking about controllable fusion since the 80s....we've had so many technological advances in so many fields since then, why is it taking so long to develop viable fusion reactors?

There's more options than just fusion:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-next-for-the-energy-grid-11581645094

If someone has checked out and considers March snow a stat padder, do they get to include that snow in their seasonal totals?

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Full on lake effect blizzard in Vermont.

3,000ft at 10:45am was checking in with 26" storm total stack (not multiple measurements, a 26" stack).

Here's 1,500ft at the office.

If it's from a lake, I've heard it's fake.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

What about the next few frames/periods?  How about that trough off the west coast & the one off the east coast?    You're calling for an outright torch weeks 2 & 3, right?  Hopefully there are no cool downs to interrupt that but  your heat doesn't look like it's sustained.

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If this verified.. if.. that’s easily 75-80 SNE

 

If someone posted a 360hr map of a snowstorm (in any other winter) what are chances of it coming to fruition verbatim?  Besides, looks pretty zonal over NE.

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What? We’ve been saying it’s the sister especially weeks 2-3

It's 2012, it's not 2012 it's the sister of 2012...ok.

We say it's going to 2020 and we won;t know the whole story until it is in the books.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a cooler version of that. You were discussing on our chat yesterday 

So you're saying it's not 2012?

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Snowing here in Mass right now.  In Feb. 

Imagine that...didn't know that was still a thing.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than warmth . Sister 2012

lol...yeah, next few days are definitely warm.

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve told them the same since early Feb any gotten the sane responses. Persistence won this year, A few folks always hang on no matter how it looks and end up sad. That’s their choice 

What do you mean by "a few folks hang on"?  Hang on to what?  Observing the weather?

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

You, maybe not.  But in my neck of the woods, yes.

That's a pretty bold call.  Even the crappiest of winters have had snow in March here.  My worst March only had a trace but then we had measurable in April.  Good luck with that call...

58 minutes ago, tamarack said:

How long is their record?  (No time to look atm)  Longest I'd found elsewhere was NYC, back thru 1869 though snow depth wasn't consistently reported until 40-50 years later.

Looks like it goes back to 1885:

http://bluehill.org/observatory/2020/02/announcing-blue-hill-observatorys-2020-summer-workshop-launch-your-weather-career-2/

33 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I just come here for the bickering. 
 

Maybe we can have 100+ pages before the month even starts like last month and all of them be non-weather related about a virus?  Better than anything I guess...

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Right??  That's only 13-14 days out...what could go wrong?  

I think it only goes out 15-16 days so it's at the end of the range and we don't know exactly what lies beyond that.  If you look at a meteogram the trend has been for a few days of cool/colder weather, a few days of warmer weather and rinse and repeat.  That pattern started last week.  For someone who has been touting persistence forecasting (which I don't think is a bad thing), who's to say that warmer period isn't followed by another cooler period after that?

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS going right to 2012 after the 10th. Scoots will confirm 

How many days does it have after the 10th?  Looks to be part of the yo-yo ride that started this week...up and down, up and down.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

when something shows something that goes against snow/cold it ruffles feathers 

I don't think it's that.  I know it's shown BN temps and AN precip in the winter and it's not worked out.  I think the angst has more to do with being able to predict something so far out.  I do agree that there are biased people but that's on both sides of the spectrum.

Does anyone have any numbers on accurate the CPC's calls are in different time frames?

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wait a minute. Where are you getting normal to BN? I’m going to pray, pray that you’re not using the FV3es for that 

Ensembles. And yes, I include the GEFS when I'm looking at guidance.  It'll probably wind up about normal  but right now it looks like half of the days are BN and half are AN between 3/1 and 3/10.  Given that it's 6 days out though, a lot can change either way.  Let's just see how it plays out.

57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sorry to present facts when posters post fantasy thoughts without checking reality.

If this was April he would be calling it a drought and saying we need the rain.  Having spent some time in the woods the past couple of weeks the ground is dry, not muddy.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Violently disagree. The EPS which folks use, is waaay AN.  It will be cooler than 2012, but not that far off of that General idea especially the middle 2-3 weeks 

Right now the first third of the month looks normal to BN so for it to "waaay AN" week 2 and three are going to have to be extreme.  Either way, the month is still almost a week out.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Heh...if I had no pack maybe even I’d hit 70° here.

Doesn't last long though.  I wonder if we yo-yo through the month like that...

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m skiing in Utah next week, we’ll hopefully still be open and skiing here when I return .

Alta/Snowbird?

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

At least it will be spring.

Yes!  And this crappy winter will be in the books and behind us.  I hope next year is a better year and not a three-peat like 89, 90 & 91 were.  That three year period was such crap.  At least we had that period in early December down here but there's still time for something this spring.

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See I disagree... we have plenty of posters who post things just to get a response.  Like when the Euro shows 0.25” of QPF as snow and someone says “Euro now onboard for 6+ back to NY state!”  We give a lot more latitude if it’s the weather we want.

He occasionally does have a sound post and at least he’s consistent in warmth posts year round, doesn’t flip flop with seasons.

Yeah, I know what you're talking about and know those other posters.  While they throw in troll posts and people react to them (myself included) there are enough sound posts to tip the balance to being valuable.  It's a different story when 95% of your posts are trolling for reaction and 50%.  The 50% makes it more valuable and readable.

57 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m surprised how many of you get tweaked by the guy, lol.  He just cracks me up more than anything.  Nice to have a warm ying to the forum’s cold yang.  

Folks posting H5 progs weeks out that looks cold, fine, but he posts one looking warm and everyone loses their shit .

But I guess in a terrible winter no one wants to hear it down there.  

Yeah, I have no problem if someone did that and for a while I just mentally ignore his posts because they were almost all troll or bait posts designed to elicit a reaction and not for their objective value.  We have plenty of people that prefer warm weather that don't troll and I would do it for someone that prefers cold weather as well.  A troll is a troll...

For all those folk calling for a March 1989, 2002 or 2012 to roll through the door and are saying we are done with snow, remember that even those months had 5-7" of snow.

At this point it looks to be fairly seasonable.