CapturedNature

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not us 

Never said it was.

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Most us were hoping you were going to go on another self imposed exile.

I blocked the guy and it makes reading a lot better.  The only time I see his comments are when someone quotes them and I realize I'm not missing anything.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It actually did look slightly colder....if you maybe held a microscope to it. We're talking like 5 miles south with the 0C lines at 850 and 925.

lol...that can make all the difference to the people in that 5 miles.

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

It could be 5-6 years.  That’s a long time if you’re in your 70s...

I only started keeping records in 1985 but the longest I've gone with rat/BN snowfall years was 4 straight so hopefully we are not two years into a stretch like that.  Even then we'd squeak out a decent event/year every once and a while.

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The odd thing is having Rutland be one of the indicators of winter in VT... and they don’t do any snow measurements there.  So not sure how they are calculating it then?  There’s no snowfall or snowpack data from KRUT, yet that’s the station they choose?

“At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season.”

You'd have to ask them where they get the data but it must include the snow data because it contains points for it.  Perhaps they use a nearby station?  Who knows, you'd have to ask them.  I just find it a useful comparison tool instead of subjective "this winter was better or worse than this winter" type comments.  Then again apparently we are not in winter...lol

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

This is right now #2 for THE KING for Worst Winter of All-Time.  Beating even 2006-2007.  2011-2012 will never be matched because not only did we get Little Snow, OR that half the snow fell in October, but for God's sake we had MORE Tree damage from that than Every Hurricane in my lifetime.  So I couldn't even enjoy the 1 storm, plus it melted so quickly since it was October, AND there were sticks and branches and trees all over it.  That winter will Always be #1, unless we get a winter with a Total of Less than 10" with less than 3 storms.  

It's #3 for me, at least on my record.  It would probably be #4 in my life beyond 2012, 2002 and 1980.  I never want to repeat 2012 again.  I lost so much money that year it took me years to recover.  Not good yet many would wish us to go through that again....

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

C'mon...we all know what he means and that it isn't literal. There's no need to put lipstick on a pig. For many in SNE it's been below normal snow and well above normal temps. IOW, a non-existent winter for your standards.

Pig or no pig, it's still winter.  Mild or not they are still winter months.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe he’s sugar high on maple syrup. It’s been non existent with record warmth and near record low snows since mid December. But hey it’s still winter! 

I don't know how many times I and others can point out how crappy the weather has been been with the absence of long term cold and all the cutters but it's still happening this winter.  That's the very reason that many are upset is because we're having all this crappy weather during winter.  If this time period is not winter, why would people be upset by the lack of snowy, cold weather?  And what else would you call it?

This is why I brought up the WSI because it lets you empirically compare one winter to another and one site to another.  Your numbers up in NNE are actually within an average percentile and mild down here.

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One of the more miserable events to clear. My snowblower looked like a hose and a Slushie machine

Those are the worst.  I have some push shovels that I use for those if it's not too deep but once you get more than a few inches you really need power.

40 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Amazing how warm it's been at night this winter. Since about mid-December it's truly been a toaster bath.

Even worse the last 30 days. What a crap, non-existent winter.

Not sure how you can say that.  Met winter is December, January and February regardless of the weather.  What else would you call it?  Sure it's a crappy winter but it's still winter.  Also, despite that map, locations in NNE haven't done half bad snowfall wise either.

I've mentioned this before but it's a tool that I really like because it lets you objectively compare one winter/location with another and that's the winter severity index.  It takes temperatures, snowfall and snow depth and length of season into account.  It starts the first day and ends the last day of measurable snow or a daily max temp of 32 or less.  It assigns points for max temps, min temps, snowfall and snow depth.  You add them up and get the total number of points for a winter and then you can look at the percentile that the winter lines up and determine empirically if it was a mild, average or extreme winter for that location.  What's cool about that is that you can compare one location to another, not on points but on percentile of the total.

Take a look at this map and you can see how different locations are lining up.  It also explains the data a little more.

https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Bottom line, you can't assess the complete winter until all the data is in and then it's not based on just one data point.  Even if it's the mildest winter, it's still a winter.

FWIW, I'm currently at 377 points, well within the mild category and #32 out of 35.

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decided to look up the worst (least snowiest) Jan 1st to Feb 10th periods in ORH on record....first column is the snow they had in that period....the 2nd column is how much they got the rest of the season:

1980: 0.8"....16.2"

1955: 4.0"....10.0"

1944: 4.5"....20.9"

1919: 5.0"....16.6"

1989: 5.0"....17.7"

2020: 5.7"....?????

2007: 5.9"....42.1"

1913: 6.0"....6.7"

1992: 6.4"....19.2"

1937: 6.9"....12.0"

1947: 7.2"....19.1"

1933: 7.6"....56.2"

1962: 7.9"....45.6"

1997: 9.0"....49.3"

 

 

January 1913 popped up again (we discussed that month during the 70F torch last month)....epic weenie suicides that year hanging themselves by their knickers. That was the worst season for post-Feb 10th snowfall on the list too. You can see that 2020 is pretty bad for Jan 1-Feb 10 snowfall....just outside the top 5.

We had some bad winters growing up but some reason that 1980 season sticks out to me.  I just remember how dry it was and the lack of snow didn't help.  I didn't know any better though.  I remember stories before the Olympics in Lake Placid how they were trucking snow in but then it started snowing up there just in time.  I think BDL wound up with less than 10" of snow that year?  Perhaps living through all that is why I'm just a take what you get when you get it kind of guy.

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There are two ways to look at it. 1) aren't done, as in it will probably snow again  2) Not worth wasting time with a crap pattern.

I am option 2. There are really no good things at all going forward. I've moved on from the winter, it clearly just isn't working out..and not worth the time. For those who do...I salute you. You can convince me all you want until you turn blue in the face, but eventually....you stop fooling yourself in these types of winters. 

 

There's a third option and that's just keep moving forward and take whatever weather comes.  Sometime in April/May you look back and sum up the winter with empirical data and close the books.  Until then winter weather still happens.  There isn't a single poster on here (except for perhaps the passive aggressive ones) who is fooling themselves.  We're all just looking to see what the weather will be like in the future.  If there's nothing to see, there's nothing to see.

I get that there is nothing big to track but it's silly to think that you're not going to look at any guidance from now on.  If that's true, anyone who says it's a waste of time to look at anything has no right in posting opinions about upcoming weather because they have publicly stated that they are "not wasting any time on looking at guidance".  The fact that people continue to post just shows what a lie it is to say that.

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Crushed. 5.25”  makes it my biggest storm since December 2-3rd. 

 Moderate snow continues. 

That's awesome!  I love events like that.  It's such a boost to the psyche when you get bonus snow!!

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damn and Kev got skunked at 996

Really?  I'm surprised.  Well, he did say that it won't snow again so I guess it's true for him.  It's also March there because he uses a different calendar.  It's still February in Stafford.

55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not all of Ct is a rainer. Goshen Ct

Even in the NE Hills the ground was whitened.  Not as much, but as I passed over the 1000' level in Stafford it was solid white.  Big difference between 800' and 900'  I barely had a trace my elevation but saw the difference with elevation.  I wish I had time to go over to 1200' in Union.

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just look at the ensembles. Maybe we get some March scraps.

It's still winter whether it snows or not till 3/1.  Temp wise it's not like it's going to be 70 every day.  Looks seasonable to me:

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like winter is pretty much done on the ensembles. At least down here. 

How can winter be done when met winter doesn't end until 3/1?  Is it suddenly 3/1?

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

From my daughter in upstate NY near the Canadian border 

Deep winter up there...so close and yet so far for us.  Having snow pack helps the maple season and this cold is helping producers down here.

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS def got worse today in the 11-15. But it’s also true they’ve been pretty bad in that timeframe this season. 

So we’ll take it a day at a time and see what it looks like once we get inside d10. 

I don't understand the concept of tossing a storm/pattern at the 384hr yet we're supposed to take it verbatim in that time frame when it looks like crap?  I agree with waiting till it's inside a more reasonable range.  What that is this winter is anyone's guess.

I'll take a wager that we're not done with snow.  I do think that later this month and March can produce.  Met winter ends on 3/1 and then it's on to Spring.  It still snows in Spring but until 3/1 winter is not over over.

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its fickle to say the least, Could have a long season, Could have a short one, But like he said, Can't make up for what time you lose once the sap changes in the tree.

Yep...I know I'm going against time.

4 hours ago, dryslot said:

Everyone shakes there head about how bad this winter has been and rightfully so, But when you have guys boiling sweet water to make maple syrup in early Feb, You know temps have been above normal.

Yeah and I should have tapped a couple of weeks ago.  Most large producers start tapping in January because they have so many to tap and modern technology allows the tap hole to last longer than it ever did so it's not like you have to tap at a certain time.  I wish I was ready earlier and could have but as it is I'm tapping now.  Hopefully things hold out.

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The 10 years I lived in Fort Kent my work area was mainly bounded by Nine Mile Bridge (on the St. John); St.-Pamphile, PQ; Estcourt, PQ; and Allagash village, with an occasional trip to the forest north and south of Eagle (the NE Aroostook version.)  Nowadays I occasionally get to our Round Pond (on the Allagash) and Telos (abuts the NW corner of Baxter) tracts.  And crossing from Jackman or into St.-Pamphile is the same forest-to-farm experience.  The latter is a mill town; 2 spruce-fir mills and a cedar mill process about a half million cords per year, 90%+ from Maine.

I've taken various trips to the North Maine Woods.  One of them in the 90s I naively thought we could just cross into Canada and that it wasn't just for commercial traffic on those remote logging roads.  After a week of camping we crossed at St Pamphile I believe and following the signs we stopped on the U.S. side and found out that we were not supposed to cross.  We had hotel reservations in Quebec and it was the afternoon so after some back and forth the lady said something like she couldn't stop us.  We took that as a hint and went to Canadian customs to see what they would say and after getting the third degree and our car FULLY searched they let us through.  It's amazing driving out of the forest and into the farmland as you say.  I imagine that most of New England looked that 150 years ago.

In September we went to Escourt Station (via Canada) and it was neat to visit the northern tip of New England like that.

7 hours ago, mreaves said:

I have a friend who goes riding up in the Saguenay and he says it’s beautiful. I’ve done so little exploring in PQ other than Montreal. I’ve really have to do more

 

We went up there in September and it's an awesome place.  The higher elevations south of Sanguenay are the southern reaches of the Taiga forest.  North of that it's the treeline.  It's amazing seeing miles and miles of conifer trees.  That corridor sees so much snow too.  I always look at the NOHRSC map and it has some of the deepest snow in the east.  Throw in a couple of Canadian National Parks and it's a unique place to visit not too far from many of us.  If it weren't for my maple business, I'd go up there some spring when they are have 80-100" of snow on the ground (not this year!).

I've also drove north to Labrador in the 90s and it was amazing.  You could tell the trees were stunted versions of themselves.  There's also a road that goes to James Bay (the southern part of Hudson Bay) and the Trans Taiga Road which at the end is the remotest place you can drive to in North America.  I think it's the furthest you can get from a town in North America.  Remote is just a relative term...

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This winter could go down as #2 all-time behind 01-02 if we don't receive any more snow or minimal snow. Still have plenty of time to go though so well see.

At least something to rooooot! for.

That's a pretty bold claim considering the age of the planet.  How about "on record"?

There's an index called the Winter Severity Index which factors in temperatures, snowfall, snow depth etc.  What's nice about it is that you can compare one stations "severity" vs. another and previous years.  This year for me is already ahead of 2002's 250 points with 353 points and it's only the end of January.  1991 is next at 363 points.  I only need 521 points to break out of the top 10.

You can see how stations are doing here:

https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can tell people about the 1979-1992 stretch (with a special highlight on 1988-1992) and they won't really believe you unless they experienced it. It goes in one ear and out the other.

If they remember 1997-1999 then they might have gotten a little preview...that was kind of cruddy stretch...esp down in CT ad towards NYC.

 

I think what I get a kick out of the most these days though is how often people "cancel" winter or throw in the towel in January....you would have thought they learned from 2013 or 2015 but I guess not. Logic or reason never got in the way of a good temper tantrum, lol. Maybe this year they will be right...but when you do it every time, it kind of loses its meaning. Kind of like how JB never missed a KU, right? If you forecast a KU all the time, you can always claim you forecasted it when a real one hits.

I was born in late '68 so I really didn't know any other kind of winter.  Half the reason I wanted to go to Lyndon was to experience a "real" winter..lol.

We live in a "cancel" culture these days and it's funny how people just want to say that word as if these months don't exist or acknowledge that it's just a different type of winter.  

I'm just seeing what will come for the rest of the season and hope that I can eek out a decent maple season.  As it is I should have probably tapped by now...

21 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I could go with 93 to 2015.  My first storm memory was 77. The next one is 93. Lol.  

December 1992 doesn't count?