CapturedNature

8 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Wouldn’t surprise me if this pattern persists for the long haul. The pacific is big heater and it needs to cool off, and I don’t know what mechanism would do that anytime soon.  I think that little snowy epoch we had for about 15 years blew itself out finally.  It’s the mid west’s turn in the barrel.

15 years?  It was longer than that.  Growing up in the 70s and 80s there was a market change after 1992 so that's almost 30 years.  We had winters like this year after year for decades before that save for a few great years/storms. 

People here sound like spoiled brats throwing temper tantrums because they don't like the weather.  My worst winter was 2002 when my largest "storm" left 3" of snow.  It still remains my mildest winter as well.  The funny thing was that in late April we had a heat wave but a few weeks later in May it snowed.  That remained my latest snow for years and that was my lousiest winter.  So special things can happen even in the crappiest of winter.

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This week in a nutshell.

 

More like 3 hours and 43 minutes of paint drying and looping it...  

2 hours ago, met_fan said:

I drove for three weeks around Europe this summer and I saw about 20 pickup trucks that weren’t clearly company vehicles.

This isn't Europe.  It's America.  We live differently & there's nothing wrong with that.  That's why they come here to see America, not a mirror copy of them.

Pickups are handy utilitarian vehicles with lots of room to haul things to and from stores for yard work, home projects, trash, helping neighbors, etc.  With crew cabs you also get a vehicle that has more room than a phone booth on wheels and a better view of the road.  There are not the best for urban areas but as someone mentioned, they are good for home owners and there aren't too many single family homes in cities.

23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Do people (especially those here on the board) still watch the news for weather forecasts?

For me, I don't watch or listen to anyone specifically for a forecast because I make my own forecasts but I will watch different newscasts to see how a system is playing out in the media.  One nice thing these days is being able to watch news on-demand from different markets online and through channels on smart devices like Roku's.

In the general public, I think there is a large segment that relies on TV, radio & online print sources for their weather, particularly in the morning.

Almost an inch here in less than 4 hours.  I'd call that heavy rain.

41 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Average temp bottomed out here on Jan. 21, but the midpoint for snowfall is about Feb. 1.

Average temp peak for me is the 22nd & 23rd.  I don't have normals for daily snowfall, just monthly but if I take the monthly numbers and divide them out on a daily basis it looks like the half way mark for me is 1/28.  Nice to know I'm not even half way...

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sitting at +6.0F for the month with 1 week left.

+4.8° here & 7th warmest January since 1985.

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well I can tell you that the bodies of water I pass daily, I would not venture out on to.  None are frozen over completely.

Oh sure.  I don't disagree.  I just think that there are shallow, sheltered places that are probably fine though after this week but better safe than sorry!

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you have to be very careful about where on the ice you are. There was a pretty large pond/lake near me growing up that always had a bit of a cove section that would be iced over really early and had no running water near it....that part would be safe for skating even in the garbage winters....other parts of the lake you definitely could not be on unless it had been frigid for at least a week to 10 days....so in those bad winters, you may never be safe out there. There was also some areas that had little streams and such flowing into them and those parts were also less safe. Local knowledge makes a difference for sure.

Yeah, I think that you have to know where you are going.  Some of the stories of people going out on rivers or on larger bodies of water without knowing for sure are just sad...no need for those accidents.

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Look for yourself.  I don't think so.

https://boston.cbslocal.com/video/4413300-man-and-dog-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-into-sterling-pond/

https://www.wcvb.com/article/2-teenagers-rescued-from-taunton-river-after-falling-through-ice/30648071

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/teen-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-westborough/613/

https://www.necn.com/news/local/young-child-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-in-maine/2212389/

https://whdh.com/news/elderly-man-rescued-after-falling-through-ice-in-westborough-swamp/

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/01/16/metro/dog-owner-rescued-bolton-pond-after-falling-through-ice/

https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2020/01/03/schools-id-boys-who-died-after-falling-through-ice

To be fair, many of those are from before this past week.  Also, one was someone on a river and another was someone walking through a swamp.  You need really cold conditions for a long while to freeze a swamp and even then I've felt soft ground.

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

People have been dropping thru shady ice left and right this past week.

Must be larger lakes?  I saw people out ice fishing back in December and this week has been colder with temps in the single numbers almost every night.  I haven't been by those places since then but I would have thought that the ice would be OK after this week.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The old saying with persistence forecasting is that you will get a high percentage of your days correct, but when you bust, you bust spectacularly, so persistence scores are generally terrible because the magnitude of the busts are really high.

I agree.  I just remember professors talking about persistence when I was in school and saying that unless you reason it was best to go with persistence.  Granted that was back in the 80s but I would think it still would have some value.  I would never say that you should call for the same events over and over because you're right, it's going to change at some point but worth taking into consideration unless there is other evidence IMHO.

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Have CT ponds held safe ice much this season?  Saw FB video of foxes on thin black ice at the NNJ pond where I ice-fished (open water too, of course) hundreds of times.  3rd time that place has iced over, and I don't think it's been thick enough to be safe more than a few days.  Ice fishing season there was Jan. 1 thru mid Feb, and except for one winter (64-65) when post-Christmas 60s wrecked things, there was always safe ice on Jan. 1 and usually thru the Feb. closure date.

Yesterday I was hearing forecasts of a foot or more for the foothills.  This morning GYX thinks 4-7" of low-ratio stuff for the mts and mix'n'mess for MBY.  Slight change, eh?

At one point they were in December.  I know I saw people ice fishing at one point last month.  I haven't been by too many places lately since it's been colder but I would think people are out there now again.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We say this every winter,  but eventually something works out. Persistence isn’t always the best way to forecast. 

Yes, but until there is clear evidence/signs, why ignore persistence?  It's not the better way to forecast but it's also hard to ignore persistence sometimes.  

Having said that, next weeks system does appear to have some differences so we'll have to see how things pan out.

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol...there you go.  The Pope has spoken!

Just now, dryslot said:

That's not Pope Benedict.

28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1978.   My street was cleared by the National Guard.  Heavy equipment, mega sized front end loaders because the town equipment couldn’t do it. 

Yeah, I remember hearing stories like that.  Not around here, but certainly in eastern areas.  If that happened today I'm sure it would be covered very differently.

It's impossible to speak of the whole of something when we don't know the whole story.  Shouldn't posts that claim that they know the whole story be in the panic thread so we can keep this one focused on actually pattern analysis?

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was the first storm over 8 or 9" I saw since moving back to ORH in 1988 when I was 7. I experienced 4 consecutive winters without a double digit snowfall....ORH previously had not ever had even 3 consecutive winters without a double digit snowfall before that....or since. I timed it perfectly!

But that storm was a true drought buster for me.

 

 

Here's a pic of me (and my grandfather) on top of a snow pile in the driveway at my grandfathers house the day after it ended. We had about 35 inches there in Holden, MA.

That's awesome.  Even for me it was a real chapter turner for me too.  Before that we would have occasional events but winters were nothing like they were after that (save for a couple).  Heck, the cold of December 1989 was a big event!  You can just feel my brother and I's excitement in the video in chasing down reports of the snow in Worcester and waves in Hull.  I had never seen so much snow fall at once and so close to my house!  After that I could compare storms to that one like some of you do for the Blizzard of 78 which wasn't that big for me.

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The looks you get from people will be awesome

Back in the 90s or early 2000s I was down in south Florida in early January and a cold front had come through.  Temps were in the 50s or 60s but I still wore my shorts.  I remember seeing guys with heavy jackets, hats and gloves.  Then there was me in shorts & a t-shirt.  I was going to go for a swim at the beach (the water temp was still in the 70s) but honestly, with the wind blowing as stiff as it was and Dp's in the 30s it actually too chilly so I bailed on that plan.  Just walking around and looking at how people were dressed was enough for me.

This would be amazing to see around here.  I can't imagine the media frenzy a storm like this would generate here.

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh America...getting left behind.

I thought that the GFS moved to better hardware as part of an upgrade a couple of years ago?

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-kicks-off-2018-with-massive-supercomputer-upgrade

If only they could improve the physics too...

4° here.

9 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I got 6 inches of mashed potatoes and slush in the Sixteen Acres section of Springfield at that time living at about 220 feet elevation.   Looking up in the sky I could see it dumping 500 feet higher and on the horizon on hilltops just east and west of the valley the whole storm where it was 2-4 feet.  

I don't think anyone had it worse than I did.  I was living in Somers at the time and where I was I had about 3" of snow but within a mile or two from my house there (by JMH) there was well over a foot.

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I hadn’t seen this thread until I Googled the storm. Lol.  Great video 

Thanks...seems like such a long time ago.