Rd9108

This too. Is what we are seeing a trend or is it the models wobbling back and forth? I think tomorrow's 12z models will be the do or die time.

Looks better than the 18z para atleast.

Lmao. Oh well I'm ready for golf weather anyway. Less to shovel too. I hope this totally busts and we get zero snow.

Seems the NAM does well when it deals with convection. 2016 every model except the NAM had that storm further east. The NAM ended up being correct with the storm hugging the coast a lot more. I believe I don't remember the year a big blizzard was supposed to hit NYC. The NAM had a run where it said no way and the storm whiffed big time. People were pissed that they shut down the city but we are talking about 50 miles being the difference between 2 ft and 4 inches. There's a reason why Mets don't really use the NAM as much as the Euro and GFS.

100%. Usually its way too far NW and we get suckered in to thinking we are going to get crushed by a coastal. Doesn't mean its not right this time.

Well let's see if the other models pick up on this trend. If they do I think its safe to say game over on a heavy snowfall.

Indeed. Once the WTOD shows up its game over.

The NAM looks weird before it had the low going to the coast now its showing up ramming up into our area and dry slotting us. Pretty big change.

Euro holding the line

I called the Youngstown special thats my call but I will say let's settle down when it comes to 18z models. If 0z looks as bad or worse than yes the trend isn't our friend.

I can imagine our area is probably a nightmare to forecast for the NWS.

So close to that 8-12. Gonna be close.

Nice. Hopefully we max out and get a foot.

I'm curious to see what the SREF plumes are gonna start showing. Its getting close to their useful range.

Looks like euro ticked south east from 0z. Good trends so far today. Need another few for some breathing room. Looking good for atleast a high end advisory event.

This. Hopefully its just the models overcorrecting NW and this ticks back southeast to give us some breathing room.

I'm tired and can't go to sleep until the truck is back from the fire but it looks like the Euro did improve from the 12z. We still flip on the euro but not as fast. Baby steps I guess.

We are definitely walking a tight rope with this whole set up. We need the euro to tick back east so we can have some breathing room.

Good start to the 0z suite

Idk something in my gut tells me this is the type of storm that jackpots Youngstown. We haven't seen one of those this season yet. We still maybe get a few sloppy inches but the euro isn't backing down.

Start time tomorrow right?

The NAM HP strength is like 7mb difference from the GFS. Idk how true that is gonna be.

Not bad not great. Still time.