Rd9108

So I guess it all depends on where that Arctic high is. If it pushes the ridge up then we rain and mix and maybe some snow. If it stays further north and rides above us then the heights are lower and the boundary is lower. I think we see a few inches from the backside but I don't think we jackpot. Still time to change.

Euro and EPS are south and EPS is way south, gfs is way north. Time for some fun tracking.

Just give me like half a day of 40 degrees. That's all I ask and then we can track another nice 8-12 event.

Am I the only one who wants a quick warm up so I can wash my car off?

gfs and euro are worlds apart right now.

Some thoughts from a PGH met on another forum I would be very cautious with the current GFS solution for a couple reasons: 1) It is more than a day faster with this follow up wave compared to all other guidance, which fits into its bias of being way too progressive with disturbances. 2) It does not do a good job at all with handling the impact of low-level cold.

You see that 1043 HP that should help push the boundary down

good thing we are like 5 days out.

They are spoiled because they live on the coast. The sooner you realize that we are 400 miles away from the ocean and struggle to get 12+ the happier you will be. We get big storms but just not as often as other places and sometimes other places need to get 3 or 4 ft for us to get 2ft. It's just what it is.

GEFS is basically a toss up of what could happen.

Maybe some snow on the backside??

NYC is about to feel our pain once again as it looks like this is ticking east. Also read in awe this forecast for Boston

my God I can't help but track the next storm and the NAM just absolutely NAMd NYC and NE. 20+ inches of snow with 60 mph gusts. That's a KU NESIS 5 if it happens.

I'd guess that besides the white out arctic fronts that come through I'd say that's the last time we had blizzard warning/conditions. I bet within the next 5 years we get our 12+ storm. I feel like we are due.

Honestly if I knew somebody who lived in Boston I'd be very tempted to go visit them this weekend. Only problem is how long would it take to get back home.

It may be another 20+ years before we ever see blizzard conditions.

Haha I'm only 30 so I didn't get to experience 1993 or 1994 or 1950 for that matter. 2010 was our last huge storm and it was awesome since it dropped 21 inches but we didn't have the wind. 2010 was the storm that got me interested in this bloody hobby.

1993 and 1950. We can get the heavy snow 2010, 93, 94 but to get high winds is incredibly difficult.

Man I'm jealous of you guys. We've only seen two storms in the past 75 years that had blizzard conditions and I was either not born or too young to remember them. Very difficult to get blizzard conditions in western PA. Enjoy it and hopefully you get crushed.

yeah looks like maybe an inch or two at most with the northern energy. Maybe just a refreshener before we torch next week.

Yeah I mean there's about a negative 1 trillion percent chance that we bullseye, but we've seen these strong coastals do some weird things. 2016 NAM was the furthest west and even though it fringed us hard it still got precip further west than any other model. Juno literally was gonna be a blizzard in NYC and once again the NAM said nope going east and and it did exactly that. It almost seems like the NAM does well with strong systems even if it's wrong 99.9999% of the time. That's what makes weather fascinating, mother nature does what it wants sometimes. It wasn't 2016 I'm not sure what year it was.

I appreciate your analysis and wisdom but you crush weenies hearts lol.

hey wouldn't be mad at a 4-6 event even if out east got crushed..

Even Pittsburgh would be happy with 4-6 even if out east they get 12+