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Rd9108

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    Pittsburgh/Western PA Banter & Complaint Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    What an epic fail, both short-term and long-term on the models. What once looked like an epic pattern has now just turned to absolute c***. It's gonna take basically a miracle at this point for us to even come close to our seasonal average. All the epic blocking that was showing up on the models has disappeared. Now it looks like even Even in February that we might warm up at the end of the month.

    We were supposed to be going into the mjo 8,1,2 And now we don't even know if that's gonna come to fruition.

    At this point we're just chasing A 2018 style storm. I mean, it is what it is. We're running out of time, long-range doesn't look good and even when it does, it just breaks down  Good thing I enjoy warm weather and actually take advantage of it.

    Rant over

     

     

     

     

    Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, TimB said:

    Probably. Also, we will be hitting the middle of the month with 0.01” of precip so far at PIT, which is a record for the first half of February. Previous record for that time period was 0.07”.

    So much for that super Nino. 

    Also I know we've had some terrible luck but I wouldn't give up on this weekend yet. 

    Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, jwilson said:

    Yep, really a function in the change of the confluence up north. 

    This is from 0Z Saturday when it looked like the storm could have driven north of us.  Here you can see the northern stream is pretty flat and not particularly intense (area across Northern Michigan and Wisconsin), while our s/w of relevance is relatively spread and unaffected.

    2-14_ecmwf_z500_vort_us_29.thumb.png.0c2c566baae7eab1d582415e2c542abc.png

     

    And then this is 12Z today.  Suddenly you have a bit of a notch developing in the wavelengths (stronger confluence), and it's also pressing down more with less of a West to East, flat orientation.  It's exerting more influence, overall.

    Our area of relevance is more compressed, too, because of those NS changes.  Most of the energy is confined to a SE quadrant.  Precip shield cannot extend further to the NW away from that vorticity.

    2-14_ecmwf_z500_vort_us_9.thumb.png.ec52f8be52c7400a7037e9069b3706b6.png

     

    Manipulating a system like this creates your intense and compact deformation bands, but it limits the AOI of the storm.  Enough to generate those crazy gradients.

    I think part of the problem lately is that NS moving so fast anymore and with it constantly dropping s/w after s/w, we're having more trouble timing things properly.  It feels like our only hope is to get the NS to phase in and give us something bigger while hoping we have some kind of block in place to prevent a storm from progressing north unimpeded.  It seems we can't just run a developed southern stream event without interference.  This is something more akin to Nina behavior, too.

    Interesting thanks for the analysis. Always appreciate those who are smarter than me chiming in and breaking things down.

     

    With that being said we have to be honest with ourselves about this storm. This was never gonna be a "big dog" for us. We have a marginal air mass and nothing to slow it down. It sucks but it's not like we are missing out on 12+. On to the next one.

    Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, north pgh said:

    This storm is moving so fast we probably wouldn't even see a flake fall unless you were awake at 4:00 am. I'll drive to my meeting tomorrow morning with a few flakes in the air and bare wet ground and take it. On to the next week. No biggie. 

    HECS or bust at this point. Not really interested in a 3-6 storm that melts by midday. I should have no excuses for my golf game with this weather.

    Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, TimB said:

    Imagine a scenario where you and your wife haven’t, well, you know, for two years. You elaborately prepare a fancy date night, buy her a beautiful bouquet of flowers, take her out to a nice restaurant, order and drink a bottle of the finest wine on the menu, then come home and hit the sack. All of a sudden, just as you’re getting ready to do the deed, your drunken neighbor barges through the front door thinking he’s at his house but he’s at yours. That’s what happened with this storm.

    Look on the bright side if the Euro is right then that drunken neighbor is really going to ruin your night. The euro is like the drunken neighbor coming into your house and then shooting you thinking you are trespassing.

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

    Boy if we see this all the way through with where things are at currently this would be one of the biggest shifts south in the short term I’ve seen for around here anytime lately. Some of that high res guidance suggests several of those northern most warned counties don’t even see a flake of snow and folks like atomix and 2001kx are right on the edge. 

    Pretty amazing I went from worrying about this thing cutting to Cleveland to now this whole storm evolution changing and missing to the south. I think a lot of Mets are baffled by this big of a change. 

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