Physicsteve

Mod snow and like an inch and a half currently. Think Im going to snowblow at like 5-6” which should be easy peasy and *hopefully* have there be a few inches of snow as a buffer between the sleet and surface for round 2 later. Im anticipating flipping around 1-2, so maybe around 11ish? Seems like a ‘responsible’ time for that Snowy Night as well.

Took about 2.5 hours for an unofficial 1” (I don't own a snowboard..yet…). Safe to say rates have increased now eta: flake size remains on the smaller, finer side, but larger than pixie dust

Just started having some heavier fatties mixing in to the finer stuff that’s been falling.

Solid coating here with mod snow. Got up at 415 and it had already started so not sure how much virga there was to start. Most 6 hr precip panels i saw had me start at/after 7, so Im considering this a bonus and a good omen. Just heard some distant plowing too, oddly. Asphalt driveway has caved but cant imagine there’s anything worth plowing anywhere yet. Maybe just testing things out.

The fact it’s still going up the coast on its way to hit Boston may prove Agnes right. This is a large, long duration system for all involved and not something just scooting ots or caught in a super fast flow. Not saying we’ll cash in on the back end but maybe we can pad some stats.

It is, would recommend, and therefore the last one that Ive been saving for just such an occasion. 8%er so a Sleety Nap may be in order afterwards.

On a more serious meteorological note, when should I drink this “Snowy Night” stout? Tonight, seeing as the snow starts overnight? Or do I have it early in the day tomorrow in the hopes of delaying the flip and having a snowy night on Sunday? Remember, the fate of the storm hinges on this decision.

Yeah it sucks but I think they’re trying to hammer home to the public not to expect 18” of snow like apple weather and similarly shallow apps have been espousing. I do have a feeling we can over-perform during the thump based on seasonal flavor and the bitter cold of this antecedent airmass. Combined with some favorable dynamics and the few recent runs mentioned by others that show a slightly delayed flip, perhaps we can achieve the higher end ranges after all prior to dreading heavier echoes.

Im not so sure it’s against Mt. Holly, I think we are all just hedging and mentally preparing for the low-end snow totals to verify and recent climo and short-range models suggest the warm nose will not be denied. Eta: most or all of us know it’s not often wise to go against mt. Holly. Just reading the afd’s shows they’re some of the best and brightest who we’re lucky to have. (guy who doesnt like change here prefers the old afd format and laments the need to change messaging to meet the public )

Yes the very heavy rates before the flip will be bittersweet. Gotta max out our thump.

Since we already have cold above and below, this one’s gotta ‘make its own cold air’ by mixing rather than evaporative cooling. Is that in the handbook?

Too much stj involvement after being quiet all winter? Fetch off the gulf torching the mid levels? It’s plenty cold down here as advertised.

The CGI (canadian goose index) just rocketed off the charts here. Must have had 300 or so just go overhead and i hear more coming. Couldnt ask them in time if they thought the warm nose was being over-modeled though. Still have to wait and see.

EE rule ftL still, 9 hours of snow followed by 11 hours of sleet will still be impressive and impactful. *note to self: wait until 850-700mb layers can be accurately modeled

Based on the map Paul just posted, which i had to double and triple check all the time stamps, maybe the real mets are also thinking the models are overdoing the non-snow. Paging @MGorse, as if he’s not busy or anything. ETA: Does that map *include sleet* as snow like some other models? Also off topic and apologize if bantery, but how does the NBM account for some including sleet as 3:1 snow and not others?

Even being kuchera, that’s a whoa from Euro. Haven’t been many maps looking like that that aren’t of the full 300+ hour run. This time the fantasy storm is only 120 hours out and the whole region gets the goods.

Whether a full lull occurs and how long will tell the tale of accumulations (duh). Higher end mesos had snow showers lingering all day until the coastal gets going and passes.

Same report as all of you to my west. Closing in on ~1.5” with snow and 29 degrees.

Yeah, western snow shield seems more expansive than was modeled. Not mad about the location of low pressures for some coastal action.

2” near washington crossing

The heading of the graphic is cut off. Could it be a minimum expected amount map? One of those stupid “best case” (weenie worst case) scenario deals.

NAM is usually frustratingly accurate with the sneaky warm noses too. Stupid high resolution can really ruin a good time.

From your keyboard to god’s ears. @Hurricane Agnes the area was also hrrr’d at 12z this is the start of prime climo, so let’s add to our december cushion

Snow/sleet combo quickly whitening everything here on the eastern tip of precip.

If we could not change the current depiction that'd be great. 6z gfs op has me getting like 15” in 6 hrs. The only problem is it’s hours 306-312.