Physicsteve

This is one of those cases that will keep us up in the future when the GFS is on an island giving false hope. This time it seems to be real, and it’s been awesome watching everything trend towards it instead of the other way around. Being a Philly sports fan and knowing weather will do what it wants, Im still weary and keeping an eye out for signs of a rug pull, but that’s more reflex than conscious thought.

Gefs?

Is there a way to infer/determine ratios from soundings? Trying to “self” teach reading these info-laden graphs gotta imagine itll be pretty pasty stuff if it does snow

Yes, intriguing but have to remain skeptic. Models have been all over the place with this one. @Heisy never gave up and also highlighted the small but important details that will make or break this event.

Monmouth/ocean jack. This year is a throwback and hopefully indicative our stretch of ratters and disappointments is changing.

Gotta like that globals and now at least the nam have modeled a sharper NS dive and interaction with the southern energy with a well-timed 50/50ish low. Today will be quite interesting.

I still had snow otg from the 6” I got the weekend before, 1/17-18, so getting close to a full month here. It’s been a very picturesque wintery month. eta dogs and small children are still able to walk on top of the snow without falling in as well for the most part.

The clean up definitely had to be attacked in stages, and even then it was a lot. High schooler across the street is building a fort out of blocks of the stuff, which was what I experienced digging the cars out. Great for igloo making.

Storm signal is there across guidance, but gfs camp keeps troughs and energy too neutral or neg too late, whereas euro products (ai included, notably) all go neg at the perfect time for us, now 2 runs in a row. I know which camp I’d like to be in at this range.

Sleet started around noon towards the end of the snowblow with a few fun raindrops mixed in and it’s since been steady sleet with some flurries occasionally trying to mix in. Measured 7.5” but was a bit after the mixing started, so going with 8” snow. Hard to measure sleet but maybe 1/4”-1/3”?

4.25” as of 945

Heavier echoes inbound about 10 minutes from now, and cc radar looks clean. Let’s thump.

Don't remember if that’s when they were just hoping or actually progged, but I remember that time being bandied about

Yeah that top ‘experimental’ one has me in the helpful 3-9” range. No difference in impacts there… Needs to go back into the lab.

Mod snow and like an inch and a half currently. Think Im going to snowblow at like 5-6” which should be easy peasy and *hopefully* have there be a few inches of snow as a buffer between the sleet and surface for round 2 later. Im anticipating flipping around 1-2, so maybe around 11ish? Seems like a ‘responsible’ time for that Snowy Night as well.

Took about 2.5 hours for an unofficial 1” (I don't own a snowboard..yet…). Safe to say rates have increased now eta: flake size remains on the smaller, finer side, but larger than pixie dust

Just started having some heavier fatties mixing in to the finer stuff that’s been falling.

Solid coating here with mod snow. Got up at 415 and it had already started so not sure how much virga there was to start. Most 6 hr precip panels i saw had me start at/after 7, so Im considering this a bonus and a good omen. Just heard some distant plowing too, oddly. Asphalt driveway has caved but cant imagine there’s anything worth plowing anywhere yet. Maybe just testing things out.

The fact it’s still going up the coast on its way to hit Boston may prove Agnes right. This is a large, long duration system for all involved and not something just scooting ots or caught in a super fast flow. Not saying we’ll cash in on the back end but maybe we can pad some stats.

It is, would recommend, and therefore the last one that Ive been saving for just such an occasion. 8%er so a Sleety Nap may be in order afterwards.

On a more serious meteorological note, when should I drink this “Snowy Night” stout? Tonight, seeing as the snow starts overnight? Or do I have it early in the day tomorrow in the hopes of delaying the flip and having a snowy night on Sunday? Remember, the fate of the storm hinges on this decision.

Yeah it sucks but I think they’re trying to hammer home to the public not to expect 18” of snow like apple weather and similarly shallow apps have been espousing. I do have a feeling we can over-perform during the thump based on seasonal flavor and the bitter cold of this antecedent airmass. Combined with some favorable dynamics and the few recent runs mentioned by others that show a slightly delayed flip, perhaps we can achieve the higher end ranges after all prior to dreading heavier echoes.

Im not so sure it’s against Mt. Holly, I think we are all just hedging and mentally preparing for the low-end snow totals to verify and recent climo and short-range models suggest the warm nose will not be denied. Eta: most or all of us know it’s not often wise to go against mt. Holly. Just reading the afd’s shows they’re some of the best and brightest who we’re lucky to have. (guy who doesnt like change here prefers the old afd format and laments the need to change messaging to meet the public )

Yes the very heavy rates before the flip will be bittersweet. Gotta max out our thump.

Since we already have cold above and below, this one’s gotta ‘make its own cold air’ by mixing rather than evaporative cooling. Is that in the handbook?