“With the AO currently serving as the "king" of the Northern Hemisphere pattern, weakening of the AO domain blocking, could provide the first tangible evidence that a pattern change toward milder weather is imminent. For now, even as a milder than normal December appears more likely than not, the timing of the necessary pattern change remains uncertain.”
To be fair, at the beginning of November you wrote chances of an above normal November were likely (70 percent if I recall) was strong consensus of warmth to possibly really warm in the second half of this month.