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NEOH

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    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

    Same here.  Interested to see when more short range models get into better range. The fv3 looks interesting, but it's only one model.  

    Euro attempts to throw us a bone. A low east of Lake Ontario is usually a good spot. But everything is elongated from west to east which keeps the winds southwesterly on the backside. Probably very little chance of the orientation changing. 

     

     

    prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

    What's the trend for NE Ohio? Less snow? More snow? If those winds are gusting as strong as they say, the wind chills are going to be brutal.

    Ha. Who knows at this point. What a tough storm to forecast. Sounds like the models will have full sampling later today. Hopefully the eastern trends continue. I think the trajectory of the low as it passes by will have a big impact on lake enhancement snowfall behind the low. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    I'm setting my local expectations to rain changing to a couple-few inches of wrap-around snow, with 50-60mph wind gusts and a dramatic temperature drop. I feel like that's a safe floor and is still quite a storm, though with fairly modest snow amounts. There's some potential it trends a bit less wrapped-up and east which could up the snowfall some, but given current depictions I would keep snowfall expectations somewhat in check unless we start seeing a solid east trend. My guess is the lake effect quickly becomes a southwest NY thing, as with a very deep low just to our NNE I feel winds would quickly go rather southwesterly as it pulls away. 

    Hey, I was hoping for better news from you :lol:!  What a LES season for WNY... really couldn't draw it up and better for that area this year. Its going to be a little frustrating when we will finally get a favorable set-up and a NW wind direction when the lake has ice. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

    Lol let's hope not. 

    Seems 12z runs bringing things a bit back east.   Let's hope the trend continues with more sampling.  

    Going to be windy, that's for sure!

    The CMC was a small step in the right direction. A tightly wound low due North would not be good. We need the low to move more easterly to bring the winds around to a more favorable direction. 

     

    Let’s talk weather!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

    Forgive my ignorance, but this means an Apps runner?  Even I know that means heavy snow here.

    The solution he was forecasting is likely not even close to being correct... 

    That would be the 18z GFS series, which develops a surface low pressure over the Carolinas and takes the impulse straight north into the QC Eastern Townships, then into the Laurentian Shield.

    As you can tell by the packed isobar configuration on all of the mapped depictions, high winds and piercing chill factors are a given in association with this storm. The freezing air at one point may reach central Mexico. But rain and snow boundaries, and intensities, are not as easy to outline. Because of the lack of surety in the trajectory, even parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England could see substantial snow. Accumulations of snowfall, along with icing, could reach farther south due to the broad upper low and mesoscale impulses rotating around the core. The 954MB pressure forecast on Saturday morning in QC is probably correct; this system has the word "bombogenesis" written all over it!

    Let’s talk weather!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Tough model trends for those of us in Ohio. Everyone's favorite met LC thinks this goes south and east... :blink:

    There are two influencing factors that most of the numerical forecast models are missing. That would be the strong Baffin Island ridging and the energy-laden subtropical jet stream. The lower latitude feature is a boundary that a developing low pressure could realign with. And the Rex signature that is drifting westward from the mouth of the Davis Strait blocks the "into Quebec" route that predictive guidance is suggesting. Plain and simple, it makes sense to go with the scheme that shows a farther south and east track. 

     

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said:

    well model trends no so good. congrats michigan and indiana  typical 40s and rain then 10 degrees and no snow

    Typical model windshield wiper effect this far out. Didn't the 00z GFS you posted have 15"+ across Northern Ohio ;)?  We always ride a fine line in OH with storms so this is no different. The lake enhanced snow on the backside should be great regardless. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    6 hours ago, OHweather said:

    Most models had light QPF last night and soundings suggested some convective snow showers with the trough passage, but for some reason it wasn't forecast particularly well. Close to an inch here, and the snow showers last evening were decent. It seems like a rain to wrap around snow/wind/cold situation and the end of the week...just something to get a good plowable snow in the whole area would be nice. 

    Well the worries of a late phase are gone :lol:. Just a WAG but a track from PIT to ROC wouldn’t surprise me… less amped than was is currently shown.

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    While it's been cold with good lake effect at times, this has quickly turned into a frustrating start to winter if you're not up the I-90 corridor east of Lake County, with another decent lake effect event this weekend largely aimed up the eastern lakeshore. BUF already has warnings out and we'll need something for Erie and perhaps Ashtabula Counties. That said, big cold is coming next week and I think it'll be hard to avoid a light synoptic snow/snow showers along the arctic front, followed by lake effect, later next week. Hopefully the wrapped up solutions come to fruition and we get a larger synoptic snow out of it...potential is there but I do worry it struggles to wrap up quickly enough. Plenty of time to watch trends. 

    Definitely a frustrating  start with these WSW'erly lake effect set-ups. Just a couple of cold snaps and there will be ice on the lake ;). At the very least the lake effect set-up looks good next week. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Speedskater said:

    Off Topic:

    Great Lake Erie visibility 2PM Wednesday. I don't remember better visibility from Lakewood Park!

    The steam from the Perry nuke plant was bright (39 miles). The Timberlake/Eastlake smoke stacks looked like they were in downtown Cleveland (22 miles). The water crib antenna tower was very clear (4.3 miles). And the Avon Lake smoke stacks were bright( 13 miles).

    And an optical illusion of seeing the Canadian shoreline. Other walkers commented to me on this (I had noticed it on arriving at the park). But at 50 plus miles I don't think that it was real.

     

    Not sure about the visibility... maybe because it has been cloudy and dreary for weeks it seemed more clear :)? But seriously, we had dry air with a due easterly wind direction yesterday. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

    Yep agreed, definitely liking the way things are starting to look as we get closer to Christmas. 

    Anything but a WSW'erly lake effect event and I will be pleased. A low spinning to the Northeast of us with a WNW wind  and plenty of moisture would be nice for a change. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Trends aren't good for any LES this coming weekend unless there are significant changes. With the low spinning near Western lake superior winds will not be in favorable direction... another congrats Western New York event. Shame to waste more of the lake warmth on a bad wind direction. Tough start to the season. 

    • Sad 1

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, OHweather said:

    Still looks like a very intense burst of snow pushes onshore into most of the primary snowbelt late this evening with the cold frontal passage. However, winds come around quickly so the burst will be transient, with WNW flow bands setting up behind it. Still a short duration event, with ridging building in midday Sunday and beyond, significantly weakening bands and shifting them back northeast again quickly through the afternoon.

    Between the synoptic moisture/support with the cold front, apparent connection to southern Lake Michigan, and crazy instability, parameters are very favorable for heavy snow late this evening through early Sunday. Conditions quickly decline on Sunday, though bands can probably still produce localized moderate to heavy rates through the morning before losing more punch by the afternoon. It will also be windy and the snow will be very fluffy, so it'll blow around. 

    In terms of accums and the warnings, given the short duration of the event and transient bands I do worry that many areas will struggle to quite get to the forecast snow amounts. I do think where those WNW flow bands set-up for several hours later tonight into Sunday morning can get to the forecast, as rates of 1-2" per hour are likely through early Sunday under more organized bands, however those bands will not impact the whole area so those higher totals will be localized...otherwise, probably a general spray of light to moderate accums from the burst along the front followed by the lingering snow showers outside any bands. There is good model consensus that one band with a Lake Michigan connection sets up from somewhere in northern or northeastern Cuyahoga County into Geauga and perhaps far southern Lake, and that may be where some of the heaviest totals occur. Otherwise, we often see a couple other bands set-up in this type of flow from parts of Ashtabula County east across Erie County.

    Here is a very rough representation of the totals I'm loosely thinking of:

    1661217629_accumsketch.thumb.jpg.2a7571076cf34e2ab99b80b5bfa5c8bf.jpg

    A big question mark is where that westernmost band sets up...winds briefly come around to 285 or 290 for a few hours early Sunday, which could get it into a good portion of Cuyahoga and even northern Summit/Portage, but it will have an upstream connection to Lake Michigan and we've seen those types of bands get stuck up closer to Euclid or Mayfield before. Otherwise, I think the rest of the inland core snowbelt gets marginal warning criteria amounts with locally heavier amounts under a couple of persistent bands, with advisory amounts surrounding that. I think the warnings as they are were probably all needed, though I could quibble about the Ashtabula and Erie lakeshore zones maybe being more advisory-worthy I suppose. Cuyahoga has some bust potential, but that western band may be the most dominant and the vast majority of indications are it at least gets into the eastern suburbs, so I think there wasn't much choice but to warn Cuyahoga. 

    I was talked into going up to Detroit later today through the game tomorrow, so I will not be home for this...I guess I'll see if there's any snow on the ground when I get back tomorrow evening. 

    Your forecast looks good. Really hoping for the ridging to take its time moving in. Enjoy the game... that's a long way to go to watch the Browns :)

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