NEOH

1 hour ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Had about 2" in Chesterland, but when I arrived at work, in Solon, I saw at least 6" on the picnic tables!

Wow. There were some very localized jackpot zones with the squalls. 

Picked up close to 2" from the squalls last night. There were just some remaining snow piles around so good have the ground white again. Seems like we can't get a break from the WSW flow LES events. PA/WNY have cleaned up the past couple of years. Might actually start to see some ice form on the western basin soon with temps dropping into the teens. So much for the record breaking lake temps... we've lost a lot that quickly. 

11.5" total IMBY. Great event and fairly high impact with the strong winds. 

15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Had a little over 3” this morning. After a few hours of not much happening snow is starting to pick up a bit again. 

Snowing quite hard again after the morning lull. Roads are back to being covered. Radar is looking great.

Legit blizzard conditions out there this morning. Hard to measure with the winds but 5 - 6" has fallen already... most of which fell between 4am and 8am. Roads are absolutely terrible. 

49 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Interesting system incoming. It will be nice to get snow a lot farther inland with this event! Outside of a Lake Huron connection into NW PA I am skeptical of huggggge totals, but with the wind, falling temps, and occasional squalls it will be quite wintry for a larger area. I do not see how we avoid an all-out blizzard in Erie County PA tomorrow. 

The one thing I'm concerned about are the strong winds limiting residence time and preventing band organization. Not sure how NW'erly the winds are forecast to come around but anywhere from 285 - 300 would be ideal for maximizing fetch. 

Nice to finally see a snow map based on a WNW wind direction. 

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

So far, so good from Lake Erie. I wonder how this event compares to significant lake effect snows in November 1996 & December 2017.

I remember Nov '96 very well. That event was earlier in the season and Chardon had 70+" of snow. There was a ton of thunder snow, and the snow was wet/heavy so there was a lot of tree damage. Also, the snow hit a much broader area than this event. This event was one of the more impressive but Nov '96 was unique. 

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Unfortunately you may be correct here. Will be curious to see the morning snowfall reports. Snow finally pushed south overnight but activity weakened significantly just as quickly as it did that. Some signs now that it's trying to re-flare a bit, but it may also be trying to shift back north. I FINALLY have a forecast shift for this storm today and will have some annoying decisions to make with the Cuyahoga warning. Honestly all the OH warnings may be an annoying predicament by the end of the day shift (will need to try to figure out if it's worth keeping the warnings going for "impact" with some additional snow continuing through at least early tomorrow, or if it's better to downgrade to signal the worst is over if no one is getting more than another 4" tonight into tomorrow). 

Thought I would wake up to more snow this morning. Only an inch or so. Interesting that the snow weakened so much as the fetch was still long over the lake. We'll see what happens today but expectations are low. 

The snow band looks great over the lake. Seems to be moving south a bit. There are going to some huge totals in lake county today. Not sure it will make it this far south. 

Wheatcent must be buried by now. Crazy how much snow parts of Lake and Ashtabula counties have had. Bummed to miss out on the good stuff this far south but we'll have shot tomorrow as winds come around to the WNW. 

3 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

What do you think the snow potential is for Northern Geauga county is for Sunday night and Monday?

Check out the hrrr. Targets the 322 corridor. It’s on its own compared to other models and shows less troughing over the lake. Hopefully a trend. 

Woke to a coating of snow. Figured it would stay all rain but it changed over at some point. 
 

Surprised CLE issued a lake effect snow warning in this area for 6-14” between now and Saturday. Maybe they just have to include the entire county. The heavy snow should be well north of here.

Not much change with the 12z runs today. Amazing how they have locked in to a wind direction for days now. Just a 10 degree difference would be a game changer.  Still looks good Sunday night through Tuesday but definitely in a weaker state. 

15 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Another pretty good run, thru next Tues.  Looks like several potential chances over the next week. 

 

The lake effect set-up is coming into better focus. Looks like a Rt. 6 North special to start before transitioning to the primary snowbelt Sunday night into Tuesday. Would really like to see the flow come around to 280 or 290, but there appears to be troughing over the lake keeping the fetch more westerly. Still a few days away so things may change. 

32 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Last several days of GFS and euro runs have been really good for neoh lake effect next week.   Canadian looks to keep the heaviest to the north, but other models seem to spread the wealth a little more.   Been a few years since we have had a prolonged multi day early season event.  

Looking really good for an extended LES event. The models do show a trough over the lake which would likely keep winds more westerly and the heaviest snow north of here. Hoping that changes as we get closer. A solid WNW event is possible. 

28 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Measured about 2.3” here before I went to bed, already about half melted. A nice event for some with an interesting looking pattern starting next weekend. 

Certainly was an unusual event and snowfall distribution. Hopefully we'll get more NW flow LES events this season. 

The heavy band never made it this far southeast. Everything was covered but nothing like North of here. A fried near Mulberry and Caves road had 5 inches. Overall the models did pretty well with showing the heaviest snow closer to the lake near metro CLE and the immediate east side. 

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" 

Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet
stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December.
This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s
relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis
over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure
develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50-
50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and
northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8
to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week,
with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively
cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the
snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS. 

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Still quite a bit of uncertainty, but with the 0z Euro and NAM spitting out very strong solutions for Wednesday night into Thursday with both models suggesting potential for accumulating wet snow and strong winds only 72-84 hours out, I think it's fair to say that later this week is finally somewhat interesting around here. Even at a bare minimum, the GFS solution would suggest wind-blown flakes flying Thursday around here. 

We've had such a nice Fall but I'm ready to move on to snow season. This will be an interesting storm to track. Good thing the leaves are down should the heavy/wet snow solution happen. 

This would make for an interesting Browns/Steelers Thursday night game in CLE. 

42 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

What an incredible stretch of late October weather.  Couldn't ask for better weather for leaf clean up...dry and mild. 

It has been an amazing stretch. Leaves seem to be past peak at this point. Lots of leaves coming down with the breeze today.  I thought the dry Summer might mute colors but they are vibrant. 

39 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

After a rather warm and dry early fall, It's been a fast jump to late fall weather early this week with Low 40s and Le rain.  Looks like a pleasant end to the week though, don't want to cool off the lake too fast.  

Hopefully we can get a similar set-up when its cold enough for snow. Perfect wind direction. Looking forward to the mild temps again later this week. 

Lake effect season is here. Rainy and cold couple of days upcoming. Already close to 1.5" since the weekend.