NEOH

2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Feels amazing out!   Depth down to 6-8".   Tomorrow will be a mess.   Looks like some models trying to give us backside scraps on Fri.

Just a few advisories out. Don't see this very often. 

Nice to walk outside this morning and feel the mild temps. Burke is at 50 while its 40 IMBY... that area really torches with a south wind. Going to a mess out there after the rain and snow melt. 

Looks like the big meltdown begins tomorrow. Not sure how much, if any snow will be left after 2 days in the 50's and rain. Still quite a bit of spread with the models... won't take much a south shift for the northern counties to see snow. 

9 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Got another inch or so overnight, event total 3.8" (have 3.6" on the deck, but the few tenths from Saturday night partially melted yesterday afternoon). Not too bad. Very fluffy and with a calm wind snow is still sitting on the trees. 

It is definitely a picturesque snowfall... very fluffy. Over 4" IMBY. Great call on this snowfall. 

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Just woke up and looked outside and at the radar myself…just a dusting down here last night but it did snow. Fascinating radar and will be a fun evolution to watch today with a mesolow forming over Lorain County over the last couple hours. Convergence is setting up west and south of this feature. Best guess is this feature edges east through this afternoon and weakens a bit, but still focuses snow west and south of it. Already good moderate snow out west and instability, moisture and synoptic support improve markedly this afternoon and evening. I think parts of Lorain, Cuyahoga, Medina and Summit Counties get dumped on through tonight but also think that as far west as eastern Erie County and as far east as Lake, Geauga and Portage can get at least a chunk of accumulation too at times. I’d have at least advisories out for all of those counties outlined at the least and feel pretty good about parts of the first four I mentioned getting warning criteria amounts through tonight. 

I can’t recall a radar representation like this. Highly unusual for sure. As you mentioned, some areas are going to see a lot of fluff today. That band in Lorain county is intense.

19 hours ago, OHweather said:

Just had a quick shower of light mixed stuff with the front earlier today...still not cold enough for a lake response yet and there was a drier wedge of air right behind the front, but it should get cold enough for minor lake effect to develop this afternoon into tonight into the primary snowbelt with a largely west flow. Think a dusting to locally 2" is possible later this afternoon through this evening, focusing on the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt.

I'm still rather intrigued by Sunday afternoon and evening...getting a few glimpses at the central basin through the clouds this morning and it's more open than the above image. Actually looks like little ice east of the islands in the central basin. With plenty of synoptic support Sunday afternoon and evening and a light W/SW flow initially turning more NW Sunday evening, expect lake effect to develop over the lake and near the central lakeshore and then push inland Sunday evening. I still think the amount of instability and synoptic support may support decent accumulations, perhaps enough to warrant an advisory or even close to warning somewhere on either side of Cuyahoga County. The RGEM and Euro are picking up on this somewhat...the NAM is getting closer. Most hi-res models still aren't properly handling temperatures over the lake though (colder than the surrounding land). My main question is where it sets up with a rather light flow, but expecting it to focus on the largest area of open water in the central basin and then push southeast Sunday evening as the flow goes more NW, before focusing back up the eastern lakeshore into Monday as the flow turns westerly. 

Good call on the snow last night. Picked up around 2 inches. Unusual look to the radar this morning with the light flow. West side should be picking up decent snow under the heavier returns.

12 hours ago, OHweather said:

Suspect this weekend will be sneakily snowy downwind of Lake Erie...cold front moves through early Saturday with some snow showers. Suspect that mainly light but also very fluffy lake effect flares up Saturday into Saturday evening as 850mb temperatures drop below -15C, with enough lingering synoptic moisture to help the situation. Seems like any lake effect Saturday - Saturday evening will be pretty low-topped, but temperature profiles will favor very good snow growth by the afternoon and evening. With a fairly light WNW flow, could see a few bands from Cuyahoga County into the primary Snowbelt. Feel like a general 1-3" is likely between the front and lake effect late Friday night through Saturday night, could locally be a bit more if some organized bands develop.

Sunday afternoon through early Monday would probably be a honking lake effect set-up if the lake were wide open with a very nice upper level trough moving right overhead. Even as it is, there's really good synoptic support for a time late Sunday into Sunday night with a light west-northwest flow and 850mb temperatures near -20C. Inversion heights look to rise to 8-10k feet with some synoptic moisture and perhaps some upstream connections. The light flow may favor mesolow formation over the lake and may also suggest the heaviest snow falling closer to the shoreline than normal, with temperature profiles again suggesting very fluffy snow. 

I suspect models are underdoing moisture flux and hence QPF as there's plenty of wide open water east of the islands and off of Cleveland, with the rest of the lake mainly ice covered but with plenty of cracks. The strong southerly winds through Friday will help push that ice around some more. The synoptic set-up would scream warning criteria snow Sunday afternoon through Monday morning in the Cleveland area and parts of the Snowbelt with a completely open lake. Even as it is, I suspect someone may get a surprising amount of fluffy snow out of it.

 

Oh c'mon... I was just getting into Spring mode. But seriously... there should be plenty of open water to work with especially after the strong winds today. I'm sure the models are underestimating that. 

Pic from the weekend after the lake effect. Quite the snow pack out there. 

The lake effect last night was very scenic this morning. Definitely unexpected. Was in bentleyville early this morning and it was dumping snow with at 3-4” of fresh snow. Very localized. Took some measurements around the yard today… Anywhere from 16” to 22” on the ground. 

17 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

There's still some good returns heading NE...may be able to tack on an additional inch or so. 

Yeah, heavy snow in Chagrin right now within that thin band. 

30 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Yep same range I am coming up with.  Definitely some deep drifts out there!

Looks like CLE reported 8" as of midnight with a depth of 2" . With the windy conditions this is a storm they will come in with a low measurement. 

This was a tough snow to measure... I'll go with 10-12" storm total. The snow was dense and tightly compacted by the wind. Great long duration event. 

Still snowing hard out there. Flake size has gotten better so I’d imagine lake enhancement is kicking in. Winds are strong its tough to measure. Great to see this is going to last until tomorrow morning. Will try to get a measurment in the am.

Just awesome out there. Consistent mod/heavy snow with gusty winds. Visibility is really limited at times and plows can't keep up. 

18z HRRR and RAP. Still a lot more to come.

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

It's snowing decent but small flakes in Stow. My girlfriend in North Royalton says it's a whiteout.

If it picks up the pace and continues until tomorrow morning, we should pick up some good accumulation. It does seem to be lacking that "storm" feeling though. 

Snow has picked up intensity and flake size as the better returns move in. I think this will be the nature of the storm -- we will have periods of heavier snow but not constant 1"+ rates. This is definitely a long duration storm.

3 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

That hole is weird.  Wonder what the models are seeing or did they ingest something weird from a common dataset??

It is strange. No idea what would cause that. I could see something like that from down sloping but with a North/Northeast wind its all upslope in our area. 

12z GFS, NAM and RDPS - they can't all be wrong 

4 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Snow is moderate here.  So far, looks like there are 2-3 inches of new snow on my deck.

Steady moderate snow with occasional heavier bursts. Heavier snow should be moving in from the SW soon and last quite awhile. Eyeballing 3" or so already. The 12z models show a lot of snow to come. 

6 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

The flake size and intensity hasn't been efficient yet, but seems to be improving.  I just measured 2" as of 9am.

It picked up quite a bit and flake size has improved. Check out the 12z NAM -- snows until tomorrow morning. 

Picked up an inch or so last night. Look forward to seeing what today brings. Wondering if the heaviest snow now falls just southeast of here. Hopefully a more amped NW solution works out...  Models are probably struggling with the waves riding along the front.

The one wildcard is how much lake enhancement occurs. I'm guessing the ice shifted around quite a but so we should get some moisture off of the lake. 

19 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

Changed over about an hour ago and we are approaching 1 inch already.  It has begun.

Nice. Good to hear. Should flip here shortly on the east side.

Looks like the cold front is finally starting to sag southeast. Definitely moving slowly. The rain is doing some damage to the snowpack. 

Looks like the cold front is out near the Islands. 

2 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

Wish I knew what he was looking at lmao 

 

 

He's definitely the king of TV weather weenies. Wouldn't complain if he is right 

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Everything still seems on track.  Looks like a slight drying trend with the qpf if anything, but should still be a great storm.  

No significant changes as far as I can tell. Dropped down to 37 IMBY last night so not too much snow melt with DP in the mid 20's. Hoping for an earlier changeover today. The cold front looks to be near Huron OH right now. With an icy lake fronts tend to slip south of lakeshore more easily.