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NEOH

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    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    9 hours ago, OHweather said:

    We got about an inch of fluff out here in Reminderville this evening on top of half an inch to an inch while I was at work. Very much feels like a Cleveland winter the last couple of weeks with a big synoptic snow plus a few LES events that have been tough to forecast but have kept us on our toes. Drove out to the Independence / Seven Hills area around 7 PM and drove through the same band that was still extending from Lake Huron down the 271 corridor into the Garfield Hts / Mayfield Hts area (and actually started snowing as far east as 91 and 422 in Solon). It was absolutely dumping near the 271/480/422 interchange. May have been 2" per hour rates. 1/8th mile visibility and just pouring dendrites. Highways were in rough shape. Got a good inch or so in the Seven Hills / Independence area of fluff in the few hours I was there, looks like what was left of that band drifted into that area. 

    A cold front followed by some LES and perhaps a weak clipper look on tap Saturday night through Sunday night...could be a few inches where LES occurs with a W-ish wind. Another clipper Monday or Monday night is possible (GFS still has some southern stream interaction and the timing would be more like Tuesday, but today's Canadian and Euro just have the clipper Monday evening-ish which is what I leaned towards a bit in the forecast today) followed by more cold weather and some (likely modest) lake effect with a NW flow off the icy lake through Wednesday next week. 

    Don't see any significant snows out of all of this but it will be cold with flakes in the air at times over the next several days. 

    This area was just east of the good stuff yesterday. It was interesting to watch the bands coming south off the lake then shift west and hug the 271 corridor. I had to drive up to Kirtland yesterday evening and it was dumping snow under the heavier returns. Definitely looks and feels like Winter out there. I'd image the lake will be mostly ice covered over the next couple of days. 

    • Like 1

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    The snow band has been hanging out around the 271 corridor for awhile now. Probably a narrow corridor that gets a few inches. Noticed that CLE put out a snowfall map for 4-6" this morning. Tough to forecast with such narrow bands. Looks like we will potentially be out the game this far east. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

    Surprised to see the WWA.   Looks like the Huron band is pivoting this way. 

    Just noticed the WWA. The Huron band is meandering back west. Looks it might be stalling out a bit in western geauga/eastern cuyahoga. Pretty much what the RGEM was showing. That model seems to have the hot hand with LES. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    11 hours ago, OHweather said:

    Not an impressive lake effect set-up, but it will be in the air later tonight and Thursday. With a light flow and fluffy snow, any Lake Huron band will drop some accumulations, but unless it stalls for a time (which could result in a fluffy few inches for a small area) it'll be light stuff. 

    Getting a few decent bursts of snow off of the lake. These dry  arctic air masses are never good for LES. Been awhile since we've had a lake huron connection this far west so that will help. Looks like the lake huron band is currently coming through Ashtabula county and headed west. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

    What a storm!  We traveled home yesterday from VA so got to experience the snow down there as well.  

    I'll get a measurement shortly, I see there's a 19" measurement from South Russell, with most between 12-15".  Still moderate snow falling.  

    Its still coming down nicely but definitely starting to lighten up on radar. I measured  just over 14" at 6am. No idea how much has come down since then but 19" probably isn't too far off. 

    • Like 4

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    Yeah there’s a silly amount of snow out there, eyeballing close to a foot. Not snowing as hard as when I went to bed but it’s still coming down. Wow. 

    I measured just over 14” at 6am. Looking at the radar we could push 18-20”.  Awesome storm with the winds picking up.

    • Like 2

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    8 hours ago, OHweather said:

    Well, models aren't shifting east or if anything, have edged west a bit. Feel like we'll probably see the watch expanded a row of counties west overnight tonight given these trends. Will be another day of interesting runs on Saturday! It'll be a sharp cut-off from warning criteria snow to just an inch or two, so small shifts can make a big difference for the Cleveland area. 

    Nice to see no major changes in the models. Watch out now for 8+ in Geauga county. Definitely a sharp cut off to the west. Another bump west today would certainly ease any concerns. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Latest AFD - hopefully OHWeather didn't author this. Let's hope the northern stream is faster and stronger. 

    If the northern stream shortwave is a bit faster coming out of the Mississippi 
Valley Saturday night and/or the associated upper trough is slightlymore 
negatively tilted, then a farther west track is still possible. At this time, 
brought chance PoPs for snow into southern and eastern areas Sunday afternoon
 followed by likely PoPs east of I-71 Sunday night. My gut feeling is that this 
will be an advisory level snowfall, and if warning amounts are reached, they 
will occur from about Youngstown to Erie, PA.

    “Let’s Talk Winter”

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    Looks like euro went east some, but still decent for eastern half of Ohio.  Biggest change I noticed was the southern vort moving much quicker and taking the turn north a little further east.   Ironically still ends up over DC.   

    Overall pretty much everything stayed the course today.   Someone said new data comes in later today?    Maybe we'll start to see a swing one way or the other by tomorrow.   

     

    I believe the new sampling was incorporated in the 12z model runs. Saw that on one of the other regional discussions. If this can go negative west or along the Mississippi river you would think Central OH on east would be in good shape. 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

    I like where we sit to the NW side. The bleeding to the E seems to have halted.  Ukie came west, and Cmc and GFS still give a good storm.  We're very close to being big storm, just need a slight bump W.  

    Yep, feel much better on the NW side not sweating p-type issues. Sharp cut off on the NW side though so hopefully we can get a bit of a NW trend with this. Still a long way to go... A 50-75 mile shift either way makes a big difference. 

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