NEOH

As we bask in fall like temps just before Christmas... the euro has a nice fanstasy storm next week. Just another 7 days away.

The amount of rain progged to fall with the storm keeps getting slashed as well. Some models just showing a few tenths now.

All in all, CLE won't be running a snowfall deficit until New Years (assuming no snow falls til then) so it's not like this winter is necessarily off to a bad start when you look at Nov and Dec combined, even though December was/is a disaster.

The one plus is that we have a wide open lake so lake effect chances are extended.

Yeah, pretty amazing that we have a positive snowfall departure considering how December has been. Had the pattern held through December the lake would likely have a lot of ice by now. Let's hope for a rockin January.

Don S had a nice disco on the upcoming pattern... not quite as good as OHWeather's .  He references the winter of 91/92. Not sure on the details for individual months but CLE recorded 67.5" that winter. Certainly not a disaster.

I'll be out getting some yard work done the next couple of days.

Looks rather toasty. Not sure about 60 but it will be very mild all the back to lake michigan.

At this point, we'd need a Christmas miracle to get snow. Nonetheless it's been interesting to watch the completely different solutions unfold with each run.

 

Also, 2 things to continue to watch out for:

 

CLE needs to end the month with less than 2.8" of snow to make the bottom 10 snowiest Decembers. Sadly, this looks completely doable.

 

And CLE needs to get another 0.93" of liquid equivalent to crack another top 10 wettest year. Rain chances look pretty high on Tues and Weds, but will it be enough? This one will come down to the wire.

 

This December has been truly abysmal weather wise, endless clouds, no snow, drizzle every couple days, and useless temperatures.

It has been an odd December... We were spoiled in November. There is still snow on the ground here and temps haven't made it above freezing for a few days... So there has been a wintry feel at least. We'll probably break the futility record. The endless clouds I can do without. Hopefully the pattern reshuffles in our favor. The upcoming storm is over for here outside of snowshowers behind the front. The early calls like "it's coming west" have been nauseating.

Anyone still following the storm? What a mess on the models. If anything our prospects for snow showers on Christmas look to have improved.

At least there weren't many solutions that showed a decent hit for here. LES potential looks grim now as the westward trend continues, setting up a SW flow in its wake.

 

WHICHEVER MODEL YOU BELIEVE FORECAST IS STILL THE SAME. RAIN ON

WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN

TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THE 850MB TEMPS

PLUNGE TO -9C AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE BEGINS. BUT WITH A

SOUTHWEST FLOW BUFFALO WILL GET THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

Yeah, it's probably time to put a fork in this one... I'll give until tomorrow's 12z runs before waiving the towel. From what I understand there still isn't full sampling at this point. Just hoping for a little wrap around entertainment on Christmas. At least the cutter behind the storm looks to have gone away. What a stark contrast between November and December.

12z euro is closer to a decent solution for OH... at least with wrap around potential. A tick or two east would be ideal for backside snow. Lot's of model runs to go but at least the euro didn't jump on the western bandwagon. 

Temps aren't really cold enough for lake effect behind this storm.

Yeah, that's what I mentioned. Lake enhanced snow would the scenario... not a pure LES event.

Picked up another .2 last night. Looks like an inch or two fell just north of Rt 87.

Trent brings up a good point. If this storm bombs anywhere west of Lake Huron seems like we would be stuck in a SW flow until the storm moves to the NE. 850 temps aren't impressive but the deep cyclonic flow and moisture would do the trick. However, wouldn't the strong winds disrupt the banding? Probably a "green blob" scenario over inland areas.  

It's been snowing very lightly essentially non-stop for a little over 24 hours here now...have racked up a whopping 0.2" in that timeframe.

I've managed the same whopping total. No where to go but up. No comment on next weeks storm potential until Sunday.

Nice to see some snow in the air this morning... with a little more to come tonight. I think a top 10 precip finish is almost a lock. Let's hope the frozen variety pushes us over. Regardless of what happens next week, that is one heck of a storm. If it's windy rainer, we would probably see decent backside snows. Still a long ways out.

What a great fantasy land storm on the euro for Christmas. If only...

Just gotta get through the next week or so then hopefully back to winter. The perpetual cloudy/foggy weather with drizzle has been awful.

We should have synoptic storms to track over the last 10 days of the month, whether they actually hit us with snow vs miss to the east or cut too far to the west remain to be seen. The GFS and Euro ensembles are showing a chilly look after Christmas, so we'll see if that can get the LES machine cranking. I'm hoping for an active next 4 weeks either way.

Long range does look interesting... and this afternoon's euro agrees for later next week. Something to watch at least. The one thing I would like to see this winter is a favorable LES set-up/wind direction when the cold comes back. Seems that the fetch is always WSW following arctic frontal passages.