NEOH

Been snowing pretty good this morning. Nice band set up out to the west side. Hard to measure with the wind, but I'd guess 2" unofficially.

2" seems about right. Nice band is starting to take shape. Looks like it will be sliding just north of us though.

Looking at the 12z NAM and recent RAP runs, they now bring the winds around to a solid WNW direction tonight. Granted, moisture depth and inversion heights are very marginal. The 0z ARW and NMM again spit out a quarter to half inch of QPF under any banding across the Snowbelt, but that may be a bit high. There could be an ok burst this evening with the wrap around snow showers that drops up to an inch, and then we see where any bands set up. I could see locations like 422 doing OK if the latest NAM and RAP are right about the winds. Moisture depth and inversion heights are pretty marginal (inversions around 7k feet and moisture up to 4-5k feet) so you'd have to get under a band for a little while to see more than an inch or two.

Good to hear. Anything that falls before the clipper is a bonus. Although the clipper is looking more and more like a 30 corridor on south event. Radar looks good to our west so hopefully we can all wake up to an inch or two or snow tomorrow.

Temp spiked up to 56 IMBY last night. Impressive warmth. Almost an inch or rain as well. Temps and rain have even softened the frozen ground. GFS has come around to the NAM for a more westerly flow tonight/tomorrow it seems. 280 or so looks to be the direction. Hopefully we can maintain open water for the LES following the clipper.

Looking at their forecast graphics, they have temps quickly rising into the lower 50's tonight, but have lower 40's right about now (which is several degrees too cool) which is where that low comes from. Cincinnati is pushing 60, so I wonder if we can get like 57 or 58 as a pre-dawn high tomorrow.

I'm stuck at 47 degrees. Temps will probably surge prior to the frontal passage. The bad thing is that temps have been in the mid-30's all day in western OH. That's the place that warm temps and heavy precip would have been helpful for LES purposes... but not the case unfortunately. West of Sandusky seems to be the line between warm/cold.

What an awful January day... steady rain and 39 degrees. Can't wait to get rid of this weather.

OHWeather - Great detail on next week. It's going to seem like Winter for a change. Big differences between the GFS and NAM on wind direction (looking at the bufkit output). GFS has the winds coming around to anywhere between 300-280 tomorrow night/Monday so that should be good enough for those between 322 and 422. NAM keeps a due west flow at 270. Behind the clipper we should be good.

Things still look good on the models for next week. Looks like this weekends storm heads for Toledo... Almost the same track as the last storm. Fine details aside... Moisture looks to be the key ingredient in the les mix.

Even the euro had over 1.5" of rain this weekend and temps getting into the low 50s. That ice will be toast, but rapidly forming again next week.

I'm just hoping that winds are WNW enough next week. I don't want to see a Lake County and points NE event.

Yeah, that ice will have no problem melting. Still a long ways out but the flow looks solidly WNW to NW. The west side on east should be in the game unless things change significantly.

Wow... didn't take long for ice cover to increase. Hopefully this melts with the warmer temps and rain. Strong winds should disperse the ice as well. Everything still seems to be on track for a decent LES event next week.

Just glancing on my phone, the GFS and Euro appear to get cold enough for some lake enhanced by Sunday evening with a NW flow too before true LES starts on Monday.

Just read cle's disco... Almost unreadable. But yeah, thing should gets going Sunday night. Just gotta hope that the flow is favorable.

CLE is being quite conservative with temperatures this weekend. Both the NAM and GFS have highs approaching 50, with CLE calling for 42. With these warm air intrusions always over performing, I'd bet on a 50 degree high. This is one time where I want to see a full on torch in January. It would be nice to have a completely ice free lake before the cold shot. 

Exactly. Throw a couple inches of rain on top of 50 degree temps and I wouldn't complain. The strong winds the last few days have prevented ice forming on the western basin. Had there been calm nights I'm sure there would be a lot of ice by now. Bring the torch and rain... we should all benefit from it next week. Looking at the models now... there appears to be a 12-18 hour window for LES on Monday/Tuesday, then again after the clipper passes. It will certainly look and feel a lot more like Winter.

Nice timing on the warm-up. Slush trails just starting to form by Toledo...

The 12z Euro would be a long duration W-NW flow event starting Monday through Thursday with a clipper thrown in Tuesday. The airmass is bitterly cold with 850mb temps below -20C except for Tuesday when the clipper goes by. As long as there's some moisture which there should be with any little shortwaves that go by it'd be a great setup. The rain this weekend should ensure the western basin is open.

Great to hear. When does your snow map come out . But seriously, it does look like a great set-up... one that we haven't seen in quite some time, especially in January. And seeing the glass half-full the rain and mild temps this weekend are a plus for open water.

I saw that, but every model appears to show NW at some point, maybe SW for brief periods ahead of any clippers. Euro was especially fun looking in terms of possible lake effect.

Another SW wind event would be awful... Next weeks probably our last shot with open water. As you mentioned, we'll probably see the flow shift quite a bit next week but overall there looks to be periods with a favorable direction. The period after the clipper looks ideal.

Enjoy the snow. Big warmup coming this weekend. Temperatures look to climb well into the 40s by Saturday night.

What are your thoughts on the storm? What model has a better handle on things? Gotta wonder if this storm trends east like the last storm. Not that it will matter precip wise as it will be a rainer locally.

It looks like the Chardon cam shows maybe 3" on the ground. Looking at the long radar loop on COD's website, the bands just took too long to get their act together last night. It looks like northern Geauga, parts of Lake and Ashtabula will end up with around 3" give or take due to a brief period of decent snows this morning, but probably not quite as much as I thought. Got 0.2" here.

 

All three models get really cold by the middle of next week at the latest. With the PV sitting just to our north and Lake Erie not frozen, this could be our best opportunity yet. It has almost a week to change though so I'll reserve my excitement until we get to the weekend at least.

Hopefully we can get a decent set-up next week. Lots of potential as you mentioned.

Today's model runs should provide a good idea of the storm track for the weekend. Regardless, we'll probably have an hour or two of mixed precip turning to rain.

Looks like the band stayed just north of this area last night. Only .4" or so. Winds turn SW'erly today and another WNY special on the way. I wonder how long it will take to ice the western basin over. Not sure how long it will last with temps in the teens.

Nice to see the snow flying again. On and off snowshowers here in Chagrin... huge flakes coming down.

This area will probably be a little too far south for any appreciable snows tonight... hopefully the winds can maintain a more NW'erly flow. The 322 corridor on north should do ok.

Temp dropped to 16 IMBY last night. Hopefully we'll see some snow develop later today. Pretty bold call from CLE this far out. While it is certainly a plausible scenario, the models have been a little off to say the least.

MODELS DID NOT AGREE ON THE SOLUTION OF THIS STORM TRACK ABOUT 36 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THEY APPEAR TO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT AND HOPEFULLY WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE DURATION. TRACK BRINGS SURFACE LOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY NIGHT FORCING WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW SATURDAY MORNING CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO ALL RAIN. I CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS A MIX BUT WILL LEAVE IT AS A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN DURING THE DAY SO WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE.

Hey NEOH, what's your Dec snowfall so far? I've only got .5" Want to make sure I didn't miss anything lol.

We are about the same... give or take .1 . A disappointing December to say the least. Can't remember a worse December... although the great November we had has probably made things feels worse.

The good news is that there are storm chances on the horizon... although you won't find any optimism in the storm thread for us folks on OH. Despite what the models currently show. Any way, something to keep us interested in this lack luster winter.

What a day out there... 46 and full sun. Feels like Spring. If it's not going to snow I will take this weather any day.

Hopefully everyone had a nice Christmas.

Didn't realize quite how bad this December has been historically.

Merry Christmas all. Have a great day. Next week Winter returns..

Nothing exciting locally. Temps is down to 38. Winds haven't been that bad at all.

54 Imby with very little wind, if any. I guess winds will start cranking later. Pattern sounds/looks much better next week.

I'm dreaming of a power outage for Christmas, just like the ones I used to know.

Santa's and Snowmen will be flying around. Just glad I'm not wasting time worrying about a trace or 3" of wet snow at this point. Looking forward to next week.