NEOH

Check out the hrrr. Targets the 322 corridor. It’s on its own compared to other models and shows less troughing over the lake. Hopefully a trend.

Woke to a coating of snow. Figured it would stay all rain but it changed over at some point. Surprised CLE issued a lake effect snow warning in this area for 6-14” between now and Saturday. Maybe they just have to include the entire county. The heavy snow should be well north of here.

Not much change with the 12z runs today. Amazing how they have locked in to a wind direction for days now. Just a 10 degree difference would be a game changer. Still looks good Sunday night through Tuesday but definitely in a weaker state.

The lake effect set-up is coming into better focus. Looks like a Rt. 6 North special to start before transitioning to the primary snowbelt Sunday night into Tuesday. Would really like to see the flow come around to 280 or 290, but there appears to be troughing over the lake keeping the fetch more westerly. Still a few days away so things may change.

Looking really good for an extended LES event. The models do show a trough over the lake which would likely keep winds more westerly and the heaviest snow north of here. Hoping that changes as we get closer. A solid WNW event is possible.

Certainly was an unusual event and snowfall distribution. Hopefully we'll get more NW flow LES events this season.

The heavy band never made it this far southeast. Everything was covered but nothing like North of here. A fried near Mulberry and Caves road had 5 inches. Overall the models did pretty well with showing the heaviest snow closer to the lake near metro CLE and the immediate east side.

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December. This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50- 50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8 to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week, with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS.

We've had such a nice Fall but I'm ready to move on to snow season. This will be an interesting storm to track. Good thing the leaves are down should the heavy/wet snow solution happen.

This would make for an interesting Browns/Steelers Thursday night game in CLE.

It has been an amazing stretch. Leaves seem to be past peak at this point. Lots of leaves coming down with the breeze today. I thought the dry Summer might mute colors but they are vibrant.

Hopefully we can get a similar set-up when its cold enough for snow. Perfect wind direction. Looking forward to the mild temps again later this week.

Lake effect season is here. Rainy and cold couple of days upcoming. Already close to 1.5" since the weekend.

Finished September with 3.26" of precip. Quite a turnaround from the dry weather earlier in the month.

What an incredible stretch of weather we've had. Picked up over an 1" of rain back on the 9/7, but not a drop since. Just sunny skies and comfortable temps. Lots of red and purple showing up in the maples already.

Turned out to be a stormy and wet weekend. Picked up 2.10" of rain. Nice to have everything green again.

Nice soaker last night. Picked up just over 2". Much needed.

Sorry to hear that. I wonder if it was a large downburst. Many roads were still closed last night. I was detoured to Auburn Rd. and Cedar yesterday... that area was particularly hard hit. I took Cedar Rd. west to Rockhaven and it looked like a war zone.

Best storm of the Summer so far. The winds on the backside were definitely the strongest. Lots of limbs down IMBY. Looks like Chesterland, Munson and Newbury took the worst of it locally. Lakeshore areas near Bratenahl were hard hit.

This image from yesterday's storms has been a consistent representation of where the heaviest rain has been the past week. I'm just a few miles south. Have to imagine you've had quite a bit of rain the past week. I've had 2" IMBY.

Yep. Picked up just .25" of rain here. Everything has been going around this area.

The trend is definitely not our friend. Hoping for a few showers/storms late this afternoon. We've had a just enough rain locally to keep the grass green but we need a good soaker.

.15” of rain yesterday. Lake/Ashtabula cashed in again. Another bust for severe storms.

CLE seems fairly bullish for tomorrow. Most of the area is dry and could use the rain. We'll see what happens. The Saturday forecast continues to be a very active weather day across the region with appreciable threats with both severe weather and flash flooding. A strong southwest to northeast oriented 850 mb low level jet with southwest flow parallel to a surface cold front moving southeast will be the main culprits for both threats. For the severe weather threat, the main 850 mb jet will be departing to the northeast by the late afternoon and early evening hours. The right entrance region will be over the eastern half of the forecast area during this time and could offer great support for severe storm development in this region. The wind shear values across the area on Saturday afternoon are rather impressive for late June with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50 to 55 kt and 0-3 km SRH over 200 m2/s2 in the entrance region of this low level jet. Therefore, storms have a great chance to become organized for all severe weather hazards, especially if some supercell thunderstorms can form. A 5% tornado probability has been introduced in the Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook, as that threat is beginning to look more intriguing with some convective model output showing the sig tor parameter over 1 in the eastern portion of the forecast area. However, there is one big concern for the entire severe weather setup - instability. Showers and storms are likely to be ongoing across the region on Saturday morning and with the low level jet overhead offering support, these will likely persist through the day. Any break in shower and storm activity and especially any breaks in the clouds could spell trouble as there will be opportunity for larger amounts of surface based instability to form in the region. Surface dew points will be trending upward during the day on Saturday into the 70s with the efficient moisture advecting into the region, so it won`t take much warming to get appreciable CAPE. However, instability is the limiting factor for the severe threat and why a Day 2 Slight Risk for severe weather is appropriate at this time. The hail threat on Saturday will also be limited to just supercell development at this time. Wet bulb zero values are at 13k ft and higher and will allow for melting hail (and flooding, more next!) vs. observed severe hail. The Slight Risk now incorporates almost the entire forecast area as there is enough shear to be concerned everywhere. However, the eastern counties have the greatest concern at this time with the highest shear and best chance at getting a late morning break in rain and could be a candidate for future upgrades, depending on convective trends tonight into Saturday.