NEOH

Great AFD from OHWeather this morning. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 14 inches, especially in the northern two-thirds of Geauga County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.* WHERE...Geauga County.

Looking forward to getting back to Winter after yesterday's rain and wind event. Winds were ripping last night. Hopefully we can cash in on the lake effect this week. The wind direction looks pretty good for the primary snowbelt at this point. The lake will likely build ice rapidly over the next week so this may be our last shot for a significant event prior to ice cover.

Just over 6" for the weekend event. Very fluffy LES which has quickly settled. Nice to have snow on the ground for a few days.

4.6" so far. The Huron band has been mostly just east of here. There will likely be a narrow corridor of 8+ totals in central Geauga.

At least we'll have a few wintry days prior to the warm up next week. Some locations may be able to pull off a white Christmas but it will be melting.

Wow. There were some very localized jackpot zones with the squalls.

Picked up close to 2" from the squalls last night. There were just some remaining snow piles around so good have the ground white again. Seems like we can't get a break from the WSW flow LES events. PA/WNY have cleaned up the past couple of years. Might actually start to see some ice form on the western basin soon with temps dropping into the teens. So much for the record breaking lake temps... we've lost a lot that quickly.

11.5" total IMBY. Great event and fairly high impact with the strong winds.

Snowing quite hard again after the morning lull. Roads are back to being covered. Radar is looking great.

Legit blizzard conditions out there this morning. Hard to measure with the winds but 5 - 6" has fallen already... most of which fell between 4am and 8am. Roads are absolutely terrible.

The one thing I'm concerned about are the strong winds limiting residence time and preventing band organization. Not sure how NW'erly the winds are forecast to come around but anywhere from 285 - 300 would be ideal for maximizing fetch.

Nice to finally see a snow map based on a WNW wind direction.

I remember Nov '96 very well. That event was earlier in the season and Chardon had 70+" of snow. There was a ton of thunder snow, and the snow was wet/heavy so there was a lot of tree damage. Also, the snow hit a much broader area than this event. This event was one of the more impressive but Nov '96 was unique.

Thought I would wake up to more snow this morning. Only an inch or so. Interesting that the snow weakened so much as the fetch was still long over the lake. We'll see what happens today but expectations are low.

The snow band looks great over the lake. Seems to be moving south a bit. There are going to some huge totals in lake county today. Not sure it will make it this far south.

Wheatcent must be buried by now. Crazy how much snow parts of Lake and Ashtabula counties have had. Bummed to miss out on the good stuff this far south but we'll have shot tomorrow as winds come around to the WNW.

Check out the hrrr. Targets the 322 corridor. It’s on its own compared to other models and shows less troughing over the lake. Hopefully a trend.

Woke to a coating of snow. Figured it would stay all rain but it changed over at some point. Surprised CLE issued a lake effect snow warning in this area for 6-14” between now and Saturday. Maybe they just have to include the entire county. The heavy snow should be well north of here.

Not much change with the 12z runs today. Amazing how they have locked in to a wind direction for days now. Just a 10 degree difference would be a game changer. Still looks good Sunday night through Tuesday but definitely in a weaker state.

The lake effect set-up is coming into better focus. Looks like a Rt. 6 North special to start before transitioning to the primary snowbelt Sunday night into Tuesday. Would really like to see the flow come around to 280 or 290, but there appears to be troughing over the lake keeping the fetch more westerly. Still a few days away so things may change.

Looking really good for an extended LES event. The models do show a trough over the lake which would likely keep winds more westerly and the heaviest snow north of here. Hoping that changes as we get closer. A solid WNW event is possible.

Certainly was an unusual event and snowfall distribution. Hopefully we'll get more NW flow LES events this season.

The heavy band never made it this far southeast. Everything was covered but nothing like North of here. A fried near Mulberry and Caves road had 5 inches. Overall the models did pretty well with showing the heaviest snow closer to the lake near metro CLE and the immediate east side.

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December. This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50- 50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8 to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week, with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS.