NEOH

Getting a few decent bursts of snow off of the lake. These dry arctic air masses are never good for LES. Been awhile since we've had a lake huron connection this far west so that will help. Looks like the lake huron band is currently coming through Ashtabula county and headed west.

High res models are showing a lake huron band through the eastern suburbs... and even back west to CLE. Will be interesting to see if that develops. Not expecting much with the dry air though. Hopefully the clipper train can bury the picnic table.

Looking at CLE's snowfall map the NAM seemed to have a good handle on snowfall totals.

Storm total of 18.5" here. Picked up an additional 4.5" after 6am yesterday. The snow did compact a bit with the strong winds yesterday.

Its still coming down nicely but definitely starting to lighten up on radar. I measured just over 14" at 6am. No idea how much has come down since then but 19" probably isn't too far off.

This will likely be a top 10 storm IMBY for synoptic snow. The flake size with the lake enhanced band has increased and its dumping. Drove into the office and it seems the plows have given up for the time being. Buried deck earlier this morning...

I measured just over 14” at 6am. Looking at the radar we could push 18-20”. Awesome storm with the winds picking up.

Wow. Wasn’t expecting to wake up to this much snow. Looking at the radar loop we got smoked overnight. Eyeballing 12+ already.

Snow started around 5:45… couple hours earlier than expected. Snowing nicely, everything is covered and the radar looks great. Stopped looking at the models after 12z today. Going to be a nice storm for much of the area.

06z models with another nudge west which give a little more breathing room. Shaping up to be nice storm. Erie PA looks like the jackpot zone. We should do well in the northeast counties as well.

Just noticed that. Maybe they don’t buy the higher amounts. Today’s runs have increased a bit with most showing 8-12+ across lake and Geauga. 18z nam bumped a bit as well.

Nice to see no major changes in the models. Watch out now for 8+ in Geauga county. Definitely a sharp cut off to the west. Another bump west today would certainly ease any concerns.

Seems like most models took a slight shift back west today... would feel a lot more comfortable with more room but all good trends today.

The last couple of runs have been consistent which is good to see. Hopefully it stays that way. We'll be riding a fine line either way.

Nice. Thanks for posting it. Back and forth it seems with the euro.

Latest AFD - hopefully OHWeather didn't author this. Let's hope the northern stream is faster and stronger. If the northern stream shortwave is a bit faster coming out of the Mississippi Valley Saturday night and/or the associated upper trough is slightlymore negatively tilted, then a farther west track is still possible. At this time, brought chance PoPs for snow into southern and eastern areas Sunday afternoon followed by likely PoPs east of I-71 Sunday night. My gut feeling is that this will be an advisory level snowfall, and if warning amounts are reached, they will occur from about Youngstown to Erie, PA.

I believe the new sampling was incorporated in the 12z model runs. Saw that on one of the other regional discussions. If this can go negative west or along the Mississippi river you would think Central OH on east would be in good shape.

Yep, feel much better on the NW side not sweating p-type issues. Sharp cut off on the NW side though so hopefully we can get a bit of a NW trend with this. Still a long way to go... A 50-75 mile shift either way makes a big difference.

Should have a much better idea with the 12z runs today.

Here's the top CIPS analog. Haven't looked at these in quite sometime but this was definitely good for Ohio - http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F108&rundt=2022011212&dt=2012122618&HH=0&map=COSN24

In reading some of other regional discussions the ensembles have been correcting west with the OP runs. All good trends with the 12z runs today. Took this from the NE forum. This is the 12z euro... quite a few are west -

The CMC and GFS both have decent tracks. Lake enhancement would certainly boost totals near the lakeshore as well. Hopefully the euro will come west as well. Lots of details which have a big impact still tbd. Long shot but its all we have .

It going to be an interesting few days of model watching for sure. Let's go for a track over PIT or State College.

Ice definitely expanded. Anything west of the Islands is probably fully covered. The "good news" is that it is thin and will be pushed around quite a bit with the wind this week. Crazy to think with how warm December was the lake is quickly building ice. Here's the view from Middle Bass Island -

Let's go all in for a November 1950 track.