NEOH
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NAM only goes out to 84 hours. Much of the snow falls well after that. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the NAM at 84 hours anyway.
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Picked up just over an inch last night. Looks like 2-3" fell around around the Geauga/Cuyahoga border. Solid snow in the secondary snowbelt with the NNW'erly flow -- which none of the high res models showed. Should pick-up a little later this morning out here but not expecting much. Great to be on the northern edge of guidance at this point for the weekend storm (on the Euro/CMC/Ukie at least). Optimism definitely growing for a nice event.
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With the cold temps the remainder of the week it looks like the western basin will likely freeze up. Looked at some webcams and ice is forming around the islands and around Toledo. The Sunday/Monday storm is looking interesting. Nice track for Northern OH... no reason to get caught up snow maps at this point, but most of the models have a trough lingering back over the area well after the low transfers to the coast.
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Congrats on the move down south. Hopefully your last Winter "up north" will finish strong. This weekend is looking more and more interesting... good to have the Euro, Ukie and CMC on board with a track south of here. Still a long ways out though but something to track at least.
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We have had solid snow cover here in Geauga county for awhile. Not disappointed about missing a 5-8" snowfall at all. Imagine tracking this storm for a week for that. As we get into Feb my enthusiasm for winter tends to go away. Its pretty remarkable we've had as much snow as we've had without the lake freezing. Right around 60" for the season now... and the two December storms really made the winter for me.
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Looks like another couple of inches of snow tonight -- 2-3" possibly. Nice to have snow cover again. Next week is looking more interesting. A low tracking along the Ohio River is usually good for the northern third of Ohio. Still a long ways out but a blend of the model suite would be ideal.
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I'll assume you had a few beers before writing this :). We had 2 of the largest synoptic storms we've had in years in December. Snowcover didn't hang around that long in your area near the lakeshore but that's the way it goes with marginal temps. You actually don't want sustained cold if you want lake erie to remain ice free. A west wind is really ideal for lake county -- but the past couple of days have favored northern Erie county in PA with a west southwest flow.
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After the last couple of seasons no reason to complain on this end. Tonight is interesting... lots of moisture to work with a favorable flow albeit short duration. Wouldn't be surprised to see 3-5".
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Good to have snow cover again. That was quite a long and boring stretch of weather. Pretty rare to have the lake wide open in mid-January. Hopefully we can get a decent lake effect event in at some point.
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Winter doldrums coming to an end it looks like... although nothing that exciting on the horizon. Outside of the limited sun over the weekend it seems like we've had perpetual overcast with temps in the 30's for weeks now.
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Picked up a quick 1.5" this morning. This is definitely one of the best December's I can remember for snowfall... right around 50" on the season now. Hard to believe CLE is only at 23" but they've always had snowfall measuring issues.
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Merry Christmas! What an awesome morning with over 10” now. Lake effect is starting to pick up. Hopefully we can cash in for awhile before the wind direction changes.
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Welcome back. Good to see the models tick back west. Things are lined up pretty well at this point.
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Do you only look at the GFS? It has been on its own with the storm. Trends over night were a little further east but eastern Ohio is still in a good spot.
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Nice. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible with locally higher amounts. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula Inland and Ashtabula Lakeshore counties. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning.
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12z runs have improved a bit for Northern Ohio. Euro was interesting as the low passes it moves to the NE (instead of due North) and keeps the winds WNW'erly for a longer period time.
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Morning runs definitely came west. Here are the CMC, GFS and Euro ensemble's. Pretty good consensus at this point. Timing couldn't be any better.
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Looks like the winds start wnw'erly then veer westerly/wsw'erly. We may be able to cash in on a brief period but northeast of here looks to do well... just based on current model runs of course.
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No big trends in the models today. If any big changes come they would likely start to show up tonight. CLE calling for 2-4" in the higher terrain tonight. Still have snow on the ground but patchy at this point so it will be nice to freshen things up.
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CLE’s disco was odd yesterday. Whoever wrote that seemed angry :). Models should have a much better handle tomorrow night. Still a long ways out.
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Christmas Eve/day continues to look interesting. Too far out to pay attention to the op runs but definitely a good signal for the eastern lakes.
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Another picturesque snowfall last night. The Christmas time frame definitely looks interesting. Nice to have some action to track.
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Steady snow falling... large flakes. Looks like 1-3" likely tonight as the trough sits over the region.
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Snow has started. Actually coming down pretty steady. Not expecting much but 1-3" looks likely.
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12z WRF - has some type of inverted trough feature all the way back through the south lakeshore counties.
