NEOH

Tough model trends for those of us in Ohio. Everyone's favorite met LC thinks this goes south and east... There are two influencing factors that most of the numerical forecast models are missing. That would be the strong Baffin Island ridging and the energy-laden subtropical jet stream. The lower latitude feature is a boundary that a developing low pressure could realign with. And the Rex signature that is drifting westward from the mouth of the Davis Strait blocks the "into Quebec" route that predictive guidance is suggesting. Plain and simple, it makes sense to go with the scheme that shows a farther south and east track.

Will there be full sampling today? Pretty much worst case scenario currently on the models. -- low cuts well west, winds behind the storm stay WSW'erly so any lake effect/enhanced snow would be along the immediate lakeshore up to WNY. Fits seasonal trends I guess .

Typical model windshield wiper effect this far out. Didn't the 00z GFS you posted have 15"+ across Northern Ohio ? We always ride a fine line in OH with storms so this is no different. The lake enhanced snow on the backside should be great regardless.

Well the worries of a late phase are gone . Just a WAG but a track from PIT to ROC wouldn’t surprise me… less amped than was is currently shown.

Definitely a frustrating start with these WSW'erly lake effect set-ups. Just a couple of cold snaps and there will be ice on the lake . At the very least the lake effect set-up looks good next week.

Euro has been remarkably consistent with next weeks storm threat. GFS is all over the map, the CMC is fairly close to the Euro. Only 6 more days of model watching

Not sure about the visibility... maybe because it has been cloudy and dreary for weeks it seemed more clear :)? But seriously, we had dry air with a due easterly wind direction yesterday.

Anything but a WSW'erly lake effect event and I will be pleased. A low spinning to the Northeast of us with a WNW wind and plenty of moisture would be nice for a change.

Euro ends with a somewhat similar solution. Different way to get there with the initial primary low to the NW. Just nice to have a storm to track for a change.

Back to back CMC weenie runs. Lets hope it is on to something. Will revisit this image next week.

Trends aren't good for any LES this coming weekend unless there are significant changes. With the low spinning near Western lake superior winds will not be in favorable direction... another congrats Western New York event. Shame to waste more of the lake warmth on a bad wind direction. Tough start to the season.

Yeah, feels like we live in London with all of the fog lately. Hopefully on to better times soon.

Just under 3" IMBY last night/this morning. Most of that fell in a short period as the band came south... the band pushed north rather quickly after making it down to around 422.

Your forecast looks good. Really hoping for the ridging to take its time moving in. Enjoy the game... that's a long way to go to watch the Browns

Surprised to see lake effect warnings for 6-12”. The models do look good for those of us on the southern fringe. A blend would be good for eastern cuyahoga into geauga county.

They are working. Congrats... looks awesome.

Noticed that this morning. Looks like a pretty short window. You are in a good spot as the band should be very strong near the lake as it pushes inland. Hopefully not a replica of yesterday morning where the band quickly falls apart after pushing inland.

Yeah... hate to waste such great parameters with a WSW wind direction. Maybe a few inches as the winds come back around Saturday night/Sunday.

Wow. Razors edge right there. More opportunities to come though.

Nice brief whiteout this morning as the band pushed inland. Didn't last long though as the band broke apart. Looks like one more brief shot as the winds come back around from the WSW. Wheatcent must have done well last night?

With a warm fall and warm lake its not surprising CLE has not hit freezing (looks like 33 was the lowest temp). CLE is only 7 or so miles inland and temps are taken a few hundred feet from a runway -- not exactly ideal for radiational cooling.

WWA issued by CLE - looks like the window for snow down this way is overnight into the early morning. Hopefully the band can make it this far south. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO10 PM EST THURSDAY...* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake effect snows,with the highest accumulations in the northern half of the county. * WHERE...Geauga County

Yes, its in a good spot for LES. It has elevation and close proximity to the lake.

Looks like our window is Wednesday night through Thursday morning. After that things looks to quickly shift up the lakeshore.

Enjoy the event. We will be watching from the sidelines in the Ohio snowbelt. The cold air will be going over some toasty water in the eastern basin -