NEOH

Hey, I was hoping for better news from you ! What a LES season for WNY... really couldn't draw it up and better for that area this year. Its going to be a little frustrating when we will finally get a favorable set-up and a NW wind direction when the lake has ice.

The CMC was a small step in the right direction. A tightly wound low due North would not be good. We need the low to move more easterly to bring the winds around to a more favorable direction.

The solution he was forecasting is likely not even close to being correct... That would be the 18z GFS series, which develops a surface low pressure over the Carolinas and takes the impulse straight north into the QC Eastern Townships, then into the Laurentian Shield. As you can tell by the packed isobar configuration on all of the mapped depictions, high winds and piercing chill factors are a given in association with this storm. The freezing air at one point may reach central Mexico. But rain and snow boundaries, and intensities, are not as easy to outline. Because of the lack of surety in the trajectory, even parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England could see substantial snow. Accumulations of snowfall, along with icing, could reach farther south due to the broad upper low and mesoscale impulses rotating around the core. The 954MB pressure forecast on Saturday morning in QC is probably correct; this system has the word "bombogenesis" written all over it!

Long shot unfortunately. If today's 12z runs stay well west we are likely done.

Tough model trends for those of us in Ohio. Everyone's favorite met LC thinks this goes south and east... There are two influencing factors that most of the numerical forecast models are missing. That would be the strong Baffin Island ridging and the energy-laden subtropical jet stream. The lower latitude feature is a boundary that a developing low pressure could realign with. And the Rex signature that is drifting westward from the mouth of the Davis Strait blocks the "into Quebec" route that predictive guidance is suggesting. Plain and simple, it makes sense to go with the scheme that shows a farther south and east track.

Will there be full sampling today? Pretty much worst case scenario currently on the models. -- low cuts well west, winds behind the storm stay WSW'erly so any lake effect/enhanced snow would be along the immediate lakeshore up to WNY. Fits seasonal trends I guess .

Typical model windshield wiper effect this far out. Didn't the 00z GFS you posted have 15"+ across Northern Ohio ? We always ride a fine line in OH with storms so this is no different. The lake enhanced snow on the backside should be great regardless.

Well the worries of a late phase are gone . Just a WAG but a track from PIT to ROC wouldn’t surprise me… less amped than was is currently shown.

Definitely a frustrating start with these WSW'erly lake effect set-ups. Just a couple of cold snaps and there will be ice on the lake . At the very least the lake effect set-up looks good next week.

Euro has been remarkably consistent with next weeks storm threat. GFS is all over the map, the CMC is fairly close to the Euro. Only 6 more days of model watching

Not sure about the visibility... maybe because it has been cloudy and dreary for weeks it seemed more clear :)? But seriously, we had dry air with a due easterly wind direction yesterday.

Anything but a WSW'erly lake effect event and I will be pleased. A low spinning to the Northeast of us with a WNW wind and plenty of moisture would be nice for a change.

Euro ends with a somewhat similar solution. Different way to get there with the initial primary low to the NW. Just nice to have a storm to track for a change.

Back to back CMC weenie runs. Lets hope it is on to something. Will revisit this image next week.

Trends aren't good for any LES this coming weekend unless there are significant changes. With the low spinning near Western lake superior winds will not be in favorable direction... another congrats Western New York event. Shame to waste more of the lake warmth on a bad wind direction. Tough start to the season.

Yeah, feels like we live in London with all of the fog lately. Hopefully on to better times soon.

Just under 3" IMBY last night/this morning. Most of that fell in a short period as the band came south... the band pushed north rather quickly after making it down to around 422.

Your forecast looks good. Really hoping for the ridging to take its time moving in. Enjoy the game... that's a long way to go to watch the Browns

Surprised to see lake effect warnings for 6-12”. The models do look good for those of us on the southern fringe. A blend would be good for eastern cuyahoga into geauga county.

They are working. Congrats... looks awesome.

Noticed that this morning. Looks like a pretty short window. You are in a good spot as the band should be very strong near the lake as it pushes inland. Hopefully not a replica of yesterday morning where the band quickly falls apart after pushing inland.

Yeah... hate to waste such great parameters with a WSW wind direction. Maybe a few inches as the winds come back around Saturday night/Sunday.

Wow. Razors edge right there. More opportunities to come though.

Nice brief whiteout this morning as the band pushed inland. Didn't last long though as the band broke apart. Looks like one more brief shot as the winds come back around from the WSW. Wheatcent must have done well last night?

With a warm fall and warm lake its not surprising CLE has not hit freezing (looks like 33 was the lowest temp). CLE is only 7 or so miles inland and temps are taken a few hundred feet from a runway -- not exactly ideal for radiational cooling.