Blizzard of 93

The latest GEFS extended & Euro Weeklies both say that all of us are not done yet with snow this season.

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS has it below freezing in Florida for the first full day of Spring. Ouch.   47 all the way down in Ft. Myers.  Impressive though just models right now. 

Good thing that I’ll miss the potential cold snap down there. Mrs. Blizz & my daughters would not have enjoyed cold temperatures in Florida.

6z GFS has a storm along the Mid Atlantic coast on St. Patty’s Day evening.

This would be a nice welcome back to PA for me!

34 with patchy frost in Marysville.

8 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I don’t usually post snapshots of ops in the long range but might as well throw this one in here with the other maps. 

This is the new AI generated Euro model. I saw the Mid-Atlantic folks sharing this occasionally down there and now WB has put it on their site in the last day or so. So there’s that.. it is nice that it goes all the way out to 360 on all 4 daily runs. Also noteworthy is that it has been very cold in the D10-15, with major negative departures in Canada getting into the northern US. So will be interesting to monitor how this does. Perhaps the AI Euro has “learned” that the 3 out of last 4 winters being garbage winters all produced garbage springs too haha. With two of them (19-20 & 22-23) producing snows in some portion of PA in May and the other one (21-22) with a snow event in the central counties in late April. 

At any rate, ensembles have been clearly showing a major nosedive of the EPO during roughly the 3/13-3/17 period and staying solidly negative for at least several days beyond that. So that period around St Patty’s thru about the 23rd is likely one to watch. This transition of the EPO is pretty well within the ensemble range where there would be some skill in forecasting, so barring any major changes in the near term (possible of course) it would appear this pattern shift will occur despite what the MJO is doing. I think the question will be how much cold air gets involved and how long the -EPO regime lasts. That will have implications on how cold/warm the rest of month into early April is. The MJO pulse is a pretty strong one, but is forecast to move quite rapidly from 4 to 7 pretty much in the next 10 days. So I wonder if it’s influence on our pattern might be tempered a bit by its rapid progression. 

As you mentioned, the EPO looks to dive negative according to the EPS, which should help with cold air delivery to our region.

The other teleconnections also are forecast to be favorable for the 17th to 23rd period. Hopefully the teleconnections will minimize the impacts of the MJO.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Each of the 12z ensembles still look have a workable pattern for day 10 to 15.

Yes, @mitchnick temperatures look to be solidly below normal for the day 10 to 15 period on each of the 12z global ensembles as well.

Each of the 12z ensembles still look have a workable pattern for day 10 to 15.

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s good that we have 1 more model available on WB, but I’m sad it it doesn’t offer snow maps!

The 12z Euro AI still has the strong storm on Mid Atlantic coast on the morning of the 19th.

Let’s see how this model performs.

7 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I don’t usually post snapshots of ops in the long range but might as well throw this one in here with the other maps. 

This is the new AI generated Euro model. I saw the Mid-Atlantic folks sharing this occasionally down there and now WB has put it on their site in the last day or so. So there’s that.. it is nice that it goes all the way out to 360 on all 4 daily runs. Also noteworthy is that it has been very cold in the D10-15, with major negative departures in Canada getting into the northern US. So will be interesting to monitor how this does. Perhaps the AI Euro has “learned” that the 3 out of last 4 winters being garbage winters all produced garbage springs too haha. With two of them (19-20 & 22-23) producing snows in some portion of PA in May and the other one (21-22) with a snow event in the central counties in late April. 

At any rate, ensembles have been clearly showing a major nosedive of the EPO during roughly the 3/13-3/17 period and staying solidly negative for at least several days beyond that. So that period around St Patty’s thru about the 23rd is likely one to watch. This transition of the EPO is pretty well within the ensemble range where there would be some skill in forecasting, so barring any major changes in the near term (possible of course) it would appear this pattern shift will occur despite what the MJO is doing. I think the question will be how much cold air gets involved and how long the -EPO regime lasts. That will have implications on how cold/warm the rest of month into early April is. The MJO pulse is a pretty strong one, but is forecast to move quite rapidly from 4 to 7 pretty much in the next 10 days. So I wonder if it’s influence on our pattern might be tempered a bit by its rapid progression. 

It’s good that we have 1 more model available on WB, but I’m sad it it doesn’t offer snow maps!

The 12z Euro AI still has the strong storm on Mid Atlantic coast on the morning of the 19th.

Let’s see how this model performs.

6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did you move to Perry county? 

Hey now…much of the county is very nice…

Every county has its good & bad.

6 hours ago, Ji said:

We need to get psu on board. It’s just you and me right now

I’m on board too, especially with these 5 day means on the 3 major ensembles for the period of the 18th to the 23rd.

Frankly, I’d be surprised if we don’t at least have the chance to track a Winter storm chance for some places near our region with the advertised look on the 3 main ensembles for period of the 18th to the 23rd.

These are the 5 day ensemble means for the pattern….very consistent.

The 6z GFS still has a lesser snow chance later in its run as well.

This period from March 18th on certainly bears watching for a late season chance.

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Blizzard of 93 you should have woken earlier so you could post the 0Z GFS before the 6Z came out.  Both look much colder MR but 0Z was "better."

Oh you had better believe that I’m still posting the 0z GFS, Lol!

This storm chance shown on this run would fit the pattern that the GEFS extended & Euro Weeklies have been advertising for a couple of weeks now.

The run ends cold with maybe another chance behind it this this run.

The end of the 18z GFS shows the Winter weather potential that the long range models have been advertising for a long while.

I like the incoming set up on day 16. Temps leading in would be cold enough if this were to happen this way. 

Where the heck is @paweather ?  Hopefully he is ok. I know that he would be interested in the chance of Easter snow!

The end of the 15 day ensembles have held the better look beginning around St. Patty’s Day & continuing through the end of the month.

The Weeklies are trending colder each run as the lead time decreases.

This is the type of pattern that has the potential to produce late season Winter weather opportunities.

Here are the latest Euro Weeklies for the last 2 weeks of March.

18z GFS run ends with another storm in the middle of the country that could take aim at us a few days later if the run extended.

18z GFS is picking up on the mid month pattern change potential.

The global ensembles all look interesting on Day 14, just in time for St. Patty’s Day. 
Green beer & tracking something would be entertaining!

1 hour ago, canderson said:

I follow a guy on YouTube (he does amazing hikes) and he got caught up in the blizzard. In Truckee, to be exact. His video is epic - 

. 

That was epic!

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the temps under those coldest anomalies at our latitude...

this is what's incoming on that control run, and it matches the anomalies on the ensembles also...and is colder than the GEFS and GEPS frankly...

This is JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH... I wish it was.  This isn't what I want.  You know I get excited when I think its going to snow...I was giving this period a chance, at least some chance...until maybe 3 days ago when it got into range to start seeing what the temp anomalies realistically looked like and its just not good enough.  Not shocking given its been the warmest winter ever across the continent.  Actually was silly to think there was much chance suddenly real legit cold was going to show up in late March.  The only chance for significant snow I can see now would be some crazy once a century type event, some phased bomb that stalls and destroys us, and even then I don't know if it would be cold enough in that airmass...it's just very unlikely. 

I see your point & I know that you want it  snow as much, if not more, than most of us.

We would need to get lucky & time something right during the last 2 weeks of March, but that is the case in just about every year.

The end of the Control run incoming temperatures at hour 360 could give a well timed & near perfect track storm a chance, especially for the north & west crew in both of our forums.

The 12z Control then rides another low up the coast on day 15, but colder air doesn’t move in until after the storm departs.

The 12z Euro Control on day 14 actually tracks a low to Buffalo that torches everyone up to Maine.

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

63 in Hagerstown 

Same in Marysville 

6z GFS has front end snow next Saturday am for most of us.