I wouldn’t be surprised to see this weekend storm trend a little further north over the next few days to get at least the LSV involved in some Winter weather.
The 6z GFS was close for the LSV this weekend. I think a low taking this track from NC to the DelMarVa would have more precip in general on the northwest side.
The 0z & 6z GFS did not back down on the Winter storm potential this weekend. Both runs have snow in the LSV, but the heaviest is to our south & east.
The 0z Euro was a whiff because the storm didn’t get its act together & has some light rain as the low scoots out to sea.
Still 5 days to watch this to see if we get lucky in a bad overall pattern.
Great to see the MJO rocketing through the warm phases back towards phase 8 by the 20th. The Euro MJO posted below agrees with the GEFS that you posted as well.
Hopefully late February & March bring us a few weeks of solid Winter storm potential.
That’s the spirit!
Hopefully in your scenario, the 11” of snow is topped by 1 inch of sleet/freezing rain in order to help retention and then it only gets to 47 the next day.
The Euro, to a lesser degree, had weekend snow at 12z as well.
Previous occasional GFS, Canadian & Euro runs on Friday & Saturday looked good as well for this weekend.
Maybe it’s our time to score?
The overnight models still do not show any consensus yet for next weekends storm.
The 6z GFS is disorganized, but shows a period of snow towards the end of the event as the low pulls away.
Here is part of CTP’s discussion for next weekend.
“Longer range guidance shows a trough translating towards the east coast by Fri into next weekend, with cooling temps and
the potential for some rain or wintry weather, but forecast uncertainty remains high in this period.”