Neblizzard

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That is extremely ugly

When it shows warm you’ll believe it. When it shows cold? You’ll deny it…

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No, you really don’t lol and 10-11 was a 1st year Niña coming off a Niño and it was +QBO lol 

Where did I say it was a -QBO in 2010-2011? Let’s get those 5 posts in quickly today. 

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You have no idea what you’re even talking about, literally none. 11-12 was -QBO also

Oh I do. How about the strong  La Niña of 2010-2011 with a strong -PDO?  The atmospheric blocking overwhelmed the pattern most of that winter.  You disappear all year long and start posting every fall  being a troll.   There’s a reason why you’re limited to 5 posts per day.  You do absolutely nothing to contribute to this board. Sorry Mods I speak the truth.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Is it  winter yet ? Good thing this is happening in October.

He doesn’t understand the effects a easterly QBO can have on the stratosphere. Being primarily focused on the ENSO state and PDO is bad forecasting.  We’ll have good chances at periodic blocking this year.  Some extreme -NAO situations are possible. 

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Looking pretty lame on winds for us 

Who wants wind with all that rain?

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Those super warm SSTs are positively feeding back into the SE ridge/WAR. Given the La Niña/-PDO and those SSTs off the east coast, I think the SE ridge is going to be a big player this winter 

And if there’s enough blocking in the higher latitudes the SE ridge will be muted . Much like last winter. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming 

Just like your winter forecast last year .  We know how horrible that was . Once again you’re putting all the emphasis on the La Niña when other factors may come into play similiar to last year. 

49 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A very warm winter is a lock but blocking could still create snowfall opportunities. 

I don't think we'll ever see a cold winter again.

Nothing is a lock … 

4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Don't think it's time to call disaster for NYC just yet. The best stuff is still west and radar movement is more N than E.

There's another dyslot in S NJ headed for the city.

That’s pivoting east, NYC will not dry slot 

Forky is right about the UKMET.   We’re in for an assault the next 6-8 hours 

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM is still quite nasty for just about everyone with 3-6" of rain everywhere. UKMET stayed sold on big rain everywhere. Even the 3k NAM has more rain tot he south than the 12k. Can't sleep on this just yet for the coastal areas. 

The disagreement in models up to this point is a forecast nightmare . So it’s now to now casting . We’ll have to follow the shore range HI RES data 

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like overall a trend back north here. RGEM shifted quite a bit. GFS has the heaviest rain along I-84. 

The overnight part of the storm still slams the metro area 

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not yet 

Gfs time 

It’s going to be further south than the 18z EURO and 0z NAM. An absolute soaker for the metro. 

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ewr is probably getting blasted

Yup. Some of the worst lightning I’ve seen in years 

Storms exploding here in Elizabeth NJ.  Few bolts from the blue in the last 5 minutes 

Kenilworth NJ getting rocked for the 3rd time today . I haven’t seen lightning this bad in years 

On 2/26/2021 at 5:00 PM, Allsnow said:

He has! Which is why we shouldn’t even bother to read or react to what he is doing. He has lost all credibility in this forum and is just a troll. 
 

Yup. His La Niña obsession this winter failed. 

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

problem is the deep cold went into Texas and we're alot warmer than progged a week ago and the SE ridge is flexing   

We have almost 40 inches for the winter where some people were calling for La Niña to torch our region.  We won.

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m sure he will be back to try and spin it but we all know he was wrong. 

Exactly.  Usually in a typical La Niña the pattern flips late January into early February.    The fact that it’s almost mid month and we’ve had 3 snowstorms just shows La Niña didn’t win the battle this year. 

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That’s actually not a good look. The EPO is raging positive, the PAC floodgates are going to be wide open and you’re going to have Pacific maritime air flooding Canada, all that -NAO would do is trap PAC garbage

The damage has been done.  Over 28 inches of snow this month and the weeklies look good for the next 3-4 weeks.  

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yeah, that’s about as good as it gets. Far NW is still fringed but that’s a crusher for 90-95% of us. 

I think it’s fair to say the “graze” solutions are less likely now. The north trend is real and the ridging out west is robust. 

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes but the 12z Ukie missed everyone 

Let him get his 5 PDD day in now, it’s nice and early in the morning. 

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Allsnow“La Niña is dead” - over a month ago from you lol another good one. Reality:

It’s far from a typical  La Niña Pattern, despite what you say.   Remember the big “failed call” from you in December?  The GFS is gonna be right with that confluence.  This isn’t coming north..  boy that worked out well 

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is not confluence, it’s a full fledged west-based -NAO block. The storm will only go so far north then hit a brick wall, the block is real, suppression is definitely a very real possibility. Good luck getting a SE ridge press with a -NAO block like that

It’s a west based -NAO which is helping the strong confluent flow over the northeast.  In this instance a -PNA can help us by building a stronger SE ridge.  This will become a squeeze play , the EPS and its members keep coming north but only so far north.  I like where we are 5 1/2 days out.

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This setup is nothing at all like the last several winters where a storm was modeled south, then had a last minute north trend to give us snow. The only reason why that was happening was because there was no NAO blocking whatsoever, the +NAO was allowing the SE ridge to pump and that caused the last minute correction north. We have a 180 degree opposite setup now. There will be a legit west based -NAO block pressing down, this storm will only get so far north and that’s it. The block is not going to allow the last minute SE ridge pump this time. Suppression is absolutely believable and the most likely scenario 

You said the same thing about the December storm.  How the GFS couldn’t be wrong with the strength of the confluence up north.  We know how that turned out.  This has room to come north some especially if the SE ridge can expand a bit.