Neblizzard

2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Anyone have the 6z nam and gfs maps?

Here’s the 6z NAM

Just now, Snow88 said:

And moving back west

Correct.  Nice front end thump that goes to rain.   The ULL takes it time on this run but eventually we get into the CCB

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Eventually some light-mod snow at 81 but wouldn't be a big deal. Surface temps in the upper 20s so at least a mood covering.

It’s heavy snow from hours 81-84 . Should be about the same precip as 12z

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I would be shocked if there isn’t a north movement with this storm on the models between now and Saturday’s runs. These secondary coastal transfers always tend to do that as you get close

Always ? That’s not true.  We all missed your posts the last year .  Glad to have you back.  

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs ended up colder and has a 10 spot for NYC  LOL

Less confluence Over southeastern Canada,  so the primary is able to move further north. Flips to snow as the coastal takes over.  1-2 inches for the city.  

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Your post is going to be great to bring back again next week. Lol. Talk about atrocious analysis, it’s your post. MJO has a lag so even if it went into “Phase 8” next week the effects aren’t immediate, read up. If you think this is a good setup for a snowstorm in the metro area I wish you God speed. This winter is going to end just like last year? Based on what? Wishes, hopes and prayers. There is nothing that even remotely matches the pattern progression of last year, like not even close, not even in the ballpark. But you go ahead with March, 2018

See you immediately think we all assume it’s a KU pattern when it clearly is not.  You can snow to the coast with a perfectly timed high to the north.   All the models have shown this trend today.  Once the MJO reaches phase 8 , there will be a 7-14 day lag in the pattern which will set up a potential major snowfall for the end of the month.  Hopefully the mods see your constant trolling posts and ban you again.  

Just now, snowman19 said:

That’s not even a classic EPO ridge, see Bluewave’s post. But you go ahead and forecast a snowstorm for next week with no North Atlantic blocking, no -NAO and a -PNA. I wish you luck

You don’t need a -NAO for a modest size snowfall genius.  If you have perfect timing with a high in Canada , that technically acts as your block.  I learned that a long time ago in college. 

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you

I remember when you were banned for 4 months last year.  Too bad it wasn’t permanent. Again your analysis is horrible, the models have trended east with the ridge over Alaska ( it’s more -EPO).  The confluence over Canada acts as your block.  So if that is right on the models this will not be a warm solution.  The MJO heading into a favorable phase 8-1 is going to take about another week before the models fully grasp onto the pattern.  I think this winter will end much like last years. 

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like more 60s possible post Xmas. Maybe some rain/showers Xmas Eve.

I really wonder if you’re snowman19 , but just under a different username. 

2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I know what you're saying is true but jeez you're pessimistic with everything for the winter already on every post. It's not even December and the area has already had a 6" snowstorm! maybe back off of the pessimistic hyperbole a bit

He does that every winter.  Hugs every single model run.  

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 5degs. BN.

Month to date is -1.8[47.6].      Should be -2.7[45.1] by the 29th.

Meanwhile it is 38 here at 6am.     Should be 20 this same time tomorrow.

Looks like all the wet periods the next 15 days have AN temps. and rain for us.    So the beautiful cold goes to waste.

You trust the models 15 days out ? We’ll see how that pans out going forward.  I always liked after New Years and beyond for this upcoming winter 

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I heard the weeklies look very good moving forward

They do .  Overall a -EPO/-AO/-NAO thru Christmas with a small  break in between 

45”-55” inches of snow for NYC/EWR

December  A/N temps - 3 inches of snow 

January N temps- 13 inches of snow

February B/N temps- 30 inches of snow with a KU storm mid-month 

March N temps -5 inches of snow 

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks similar to the 1933 hurricane track that was mentioned "the Chesapeake Bay" hurricane that killed 47 people, hit DC and went through interior PA.  FYI this is similar to the EPS, which are more accurate than the OP Euro at this time range (Euro OP was going too far to the south over Myrtle Beach.)  So the two models are sort of meeting in the middle as they usually do, but closer to the EPS than anything else.

It’s still too early to know where   Florence will track , but the odds are increasing for an east coast hit.  The massive WAR will give her plenty of fuel and runway.  06z GFS verbatim shows 10-12 inches of rain for the area.  The next few days will be telling on the models 

20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like the 06z GFS is starting to get a better clue. 

GFS is a nightmare scenario for the mid Atlantic up thru our area.  It’s trended more towards EURO. 

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It still gets kicked out by the trough in the end.

Yes but a very close call none the less , there's still plenty of time for the models to figure out the upper air pattern. The trend today is for a slowing moving Maria up the coast and  a much weaker Jose...

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro trended stronger with the SE ridge. Let's see if that makes a difference with the trough.

Hour 174 200 miles east of Norfolk moving WNW, and she's a monster 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS SOS!

That's the second solution in a row the GFS has shown a slow moving soaker for the Mid Atlantic up thru New England.   Hopefully the Euro and UKMET continue to remain on board.  The UKIE trended towards the EPS ensembles last night which is a great sign.