Orangeburgwx

I'm going to get hammered... Keep in mind I live in the southern CSRA

I'm thinking they are too quick on the intensity drop... It is going to stay a hurricane longer than they have forecasted imo, stadium effect looks to be starting in the eyewall so we might be on the way to Cat. 5

Look at the recon eye points... NNE

It is never too late... Ask Florence Look at the radar loop posted by LithiaWx... It is already turning

I think Florence got down to 930ish as well... Micheal might go 5 or at least 150 near landfall

Damn... Looks to still be intensifying

Look at the topical tidbits recon... They are doing eyewall laps and finding it is still strengthening

We are all in for a long two days

124kt (150mph) winds found by the aircraft at flight level... Is this b**** going to go Cat 5?

An EWC would make things a hell of a lot worse... Would widen the windfield and with over 24 hours of open water left it could really ramp up

Yep I'm in it

Hey now don't laugh, even the FV3 had some mountain snow in that frame...

Suites and the NHC track shifted south in South Carolina by 50 miles... Went from North of Columbia to about 15miles outside Orangeburg

0z GFS and FV3 both ticked slower and a hair Eastward... But stronger storm at landfall

Pressure down to 967.8 Damn...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The longer term issues remain centered around the eventual track and speed of Hurricane Michael after it makes landfall somewhere along the Florida Gulf coast. Current NHC track brings the system towards the cwa Wednesday night, then across the area on Thursday, exiting the northeastern counties by Thursday evening. The center of circulation right now is forecast to come through the central CSRA and Midlands. Areas east of the center will have an isolated tornado threat as the system moves through. Winds will be on the increase Wednesday night as the system approaches, and should be rather gusty on Thursday, especially over the central and eastern counties, based on current track. Sustained winds may remain below Tropical Storm criteria, but wind gusts may approach or exceed the criteria. Can not rule out the need for Tropical Storm watches at some point in the future, but confidence remains low at this time for meeting criteria. Heavy rainfall will also be an issue as Michael moves through Wednesday night through Thursday, and some flooding/flash flooding may occur. In other words "we don't know yet"... I seriously think they should at least put up Tropical Storm Watches just to be on the safe side.

Would if I could, but only can upload .02MB...

I think Micheal is going to come in further east... Models aren't seeing that mini disturbance in the Bahamas that is going to tug on the hurricane imo

CAE NWS just added "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" to our forecast Wednesday Night into Thursday

Pressure is down to 978

Am I the only one who thinks the models are over estimating the weaking after it makes landfall?

Irma hit the Carribian, Cuba, then came up through Florida

@Solaktime to change the thread name Nope, Maria was Caribbean then OTS

Michael now a Hurricane

Euro has the eye moving directly over me