WinterWolf

All true Will. But take that stuff(Pretty colors and super refined resolution and such) away, and they’re all jumping all over more than they used to. GFS is total trash now..that’s not better than it was five years ago. And the Euro isn’t the same as it once was. But I get it...and Social media is certainly not helping and adding to the issues. Anyway, I’m glad we have this site, and you pros to explain and teach us less knowledgeable peeps what to look for and how it all works.

Yes sir...blizzard of 96 was slated to miss all of SNE to the south a few days before-was suppresses. Then a couple days before modeling started bringing it farther and farther north. And then bingo..it was game on up here too. Oops sorry guys..thought you were all talking about Jan 96 blizzard..?

All the METS say otherwise...I’m sure some verification scores proves they’re right. But the GFS is worse then it’s ever been(not that it was ever all that good to begin with). And the Euro..while still the best(and best by far now that the GFS is total dung), still isn’t as good as it was before it’s upgrade imo. Before it’s upgrade, the Euro would latch onto something, and stay on it like a bloodhound...now it’s all over the place on each run..at 3 days out. They ruined that model after the upgrade! So if you go by that...then they seem worse than they were. But the pros will argue to the cows come home otherwise. Overall(Taking all modeling as a whole) I’m sure things have improved some over the last five years...but it’s hard to see it in real time sensible weather forecasting. At least from what we discuss on here.

And early November at that.

Perfect climo system for Early November..a few flakes to an inch or two at most for SNE. And a lil more substantial for NNE and the elevated areas of the northern areas. Just what you’d expect for this early time period.

Well the model is a weak POS...so they kind of go hand in hand....

Wait, What happened to your “look at the trends not the snow maps,” from yesterday? The trends yesterday weren’t our friend either. Lol. But you wanted to play the old “Fool yourself game” yet again. And in early November on top of it? Rookie move Kev.

Yup.

Really Kev, It says afterward, right after how it’s being developed under the FV3, that it is inheriting the “GFS Moniker!!” I mean please, just admit for once, that you’re WRONG!!

Ya I get it...flatter is better for us with this. But this is going back and forth still, it’s 90 hours out, so lots to be determined with this. I’m not so sure it’s trending in a snowy direction for us, like you seem to think? But we’ll see soon enough. At least it’s something to track with the possibility of it being wintry. That alone is a nice thing.

Well 18z Euro has you at a half inch of snow and me at quarter inch of snow. Personally, that isn’t looking to snowy currently. Maybe it comes back again at 0z??

It’s definitely still the best. But I still say it’s not as good as it was before they upgraded it(or downgraded it lol) a few years back. Whatever they did to it...it’s not as good as it was before they did it.

Great post!! Laughed good reading that. Especially your number 4....it’s just too much work trying to figure It out most times.

In an hour the real model comes out...that should give us a decent clue.

But more amped than its previous run...heading towards the Euro....?

Yes sir...my brother in law was stuck by the tunnel for hours and hours that evening on his way home. Took him 6 hours to get from Weston back home to Meriden that night in the snow.

Ya I thought the same thing..way to early to maintain anything here in SNE. And T Day is late this year to boot..so it won’t be white from anything being modeled currently imo.

Hoth fighting the warm L.I. Sound at this early point in the season...but I agree with you that it’s a nice looking system for this point in the game, at least how it looks currently.

I’m sure it’ll be a wet snow at this early stage in the season...if it even happens at all. And four days from now you’ll trees will drop more of their leaves by then. I wouldn’t be worrying about that stuff yet though.

Let’s be real, It’s always a thread to be honest....

Actually, as nice as it would be to have our first flakes/snow event of the season, I would also be fine if it doesn’t work out too...don’t need the roads getting all slopped up in early November. I hate the chemicals they treat the roads with and what it does to our vehicles.

Lol exactly my thought too. What a POS that GFS is...that’s atrocious that our country in 2020 can’t produce a somewhat reliable and decent numerical model for meteorological purposes. Totally Embarrassing.

The Ukie.....or the Icon lol?

That line of storms/rain is just shredding to pieces as it’s approaching. Fascinating to see it just falling apart that fast. If I get a tenth of an inch out of this line....that’ll be a lot.

Line starting to fall apart/shred up. But it’s gusty out there currently. No power issues yet. No rain yet either. AC on tonight..Heat tomorrow night lol...