WinterWolf

At 11-15 days 500 miles isn’t surprising at all. I completely understand what you’re saying, and I agree. I think my idea is more that these looks aren’t even gonna be close to what they will be 7-8 days from now. So that’s where my mind is.

Confluence trending weaker…

No I get it…but I mean at these huge lead times, we really can’t know how these morph, or even if they are real. So I feel that needs to be kept in mind when we see a favorable, or unfavorable outcome at such long lead times.

Been saying this for a long time…but I’ve been told that isn’t really true. Yet time after time the 18z runs show crazy things more often than not. But yes, if 0z shows something similar it “may” be something.

Should we call something that is 15 days out a threat? I mean even at 10 days out things are gonna change so much as we progress toward that timeframe, that these depictions have less than a 1% chance of looking like that they do now.

He’s a Complete and utter Troll.

Well they’ve been all over the place imo…24 hrs ago the always crazy 18z GFS had a society ending storm lol. 12 hrs later it had nothing. That’s pretty much all over the place. But I get ya.

Ryan’s channel says 35-45 mph at most. Wind advisory. According to them it’s run of the mill no big deal.

Lots of uncertainty of how all this ultimately plays out over the next few weeks….modeling not helping and all over the map, so I think that’s lended to the thread grinding to a halt.

No, you’re correct. That was looking very bleak at the time. Pretty much The whole month of January sucked that year until the last 3-5 days.

That’s a dam black hole over the northeast..wow.

Besides the 80-90 mph winds..why not?

The one from Jan 18 was 950…but that was way outside the BM.

I guess the take away there is…there’s some power in that upper air set up. Good to see.

With him hanging on to it.

Here’s the thing Luke…it was a long duration storm for us Westies. It started here by 7am Friday morning, snowed light to moderate at times all day, no lulls, picked up about 4-5” by sunset. Then as the sun went down it ramped up and went absolutely bazurk all night, till about 4:30 am, when it finally tapered down. So for WOR, it was a long duration event. That’s what made it so good.

It was good here too. You did better in Jersey as far as accumulation than we did here in Jan 96, but it was a big one. Dam I wished you got to see Feb 13, that was a monster, and in a class all it’s own, and especially for WOR. Add another 6 plus on to that 28” amount, and big wind too.

See my post of Jan 96.

The irony with those things is, they almost never help you. When you wish you had one, they are nowhere to be found. When you wish they’d disappear, there’s shit all over the joint. Wretched entities they are.

Jan 96 had the blizzard…a big one. Ironically, that was slated for a SE/Mid Atlantic hit, and was thought not able to get up in here. But it trended as we got closer to go time into a hit up in to SNE as well.

Some areas have done fine in December, yours not so much unfortunately. Winters in SNE are very variable…never really truly wire to wire with deep cold or snow. Even the record breakers have had huge swings. Also, we are 9-10 days into Astro winter…I’d give it a few more weeks before you pass judgement on it. It’s the same as saying summer sucks on 6/30, which also is premature.

Lol…that’s funny cuz you’re still gonna lose another minute tomorrow morning on the SR. If of course that’s what you’re talking about?

Because that’s what happened 4 times in December. So you feel that at a week out, the solution is set? I’m sorry I don’t. We didn’t have a solution for 12/20 the morning of. But yet we know what a week out will bring now? And after that(10-12 days out), you feel that is pretty much set too? I’m not of that thinking. Sure, these can fail. They all can fail. I mean…there may never be another flake the rest of this winter, sitting here on 12/31. But I don’t feel the can has been kicked yet at all…the pattern has yet to change/set in. Give it a chance. If it’s 1/15-1/20, and we have nothing to show, I’ll be the first guy to say it blows, and it flopped. And I should have been more clear, I meant the whining thread for Ice1972.

Did you grow up in the 80’s? Cuz it would almost never snow until well into January then. This is nothing new. It’s just returned again. And also another thing…when you’re tracking potential threats that are 7-10-12 days out…the dates of those are gonna be in flux, and morph. Some of you people just don’t get it. Go live and die by every Op run. I don’t give a flying shit. Just Take your f’n whining to the cry baby thread.

Vodka?