WinterWolf

Curious, How does the Canadian look for the rest of SNE …other than Worcester and Taunton?

Was just gonna say CMC has been consistent and making decent sense of the set up.

Yes..agreed.

The NAM has been doing half way decent imo, and making more sense than most.

I’m not buying the fast occlusions either…that to seems off..

Can anybody else get in on the fun other than E Mass? God it was old 5 yrs ago, it’s downright ridiculous now.

This is what I mean. And something is very off with modeling today....things don’t make sense.

Yes, absolutely. This is why I brought this up…real meteorology is needed now, not just model watching…cuz they’re obviously lost the last two days.

This is what I mean…I agree with you. So I think this is where your knowledge and experience has to carry on, despite what a model is or isn’t showing. Real meteorology needs to be applied. Walt Dragg agrees with you, and so does Tip.

Not.

Oh for sure Steve, and that was part of my point. Obviously these things need to come together precisely, but some(a lot) of these runs are insanely messed up. And I guess my point was, sometimes common sense and relying on what you’ve learned, and asking yourself(METS/knowledgeable hobbyists like yourself) what actually makes the most sense here? Since modeling is just off on a bender so far…and not providing any clear solutions yet.

Maybe the NAM has the right idea, but this occluding at light speed idea seems spurious to me. It’s in a perfect spot for a whole SNE crushing, but it only hammers one small area, cuz it’s dying as fast as it got going…c’mon that just seems outlandish.

Everyone of these models is jumping around every single cycle. Everyone of them is drastically different, and the same models are drastically different each run. So, a question for the pros and very knowledgeable hobbyists, what actually makes sense here, with the ingredients we have coming together? Tip eluded to this possibly coming together more cohesively and becoming much more of a problem(colder and snowier) than many models are showing currently for alot of the area. A lot of these runs don’t make sense. So maybe as Tip put it, we need to use some old fashioned meteorology to actually figure this out. A more cohesive storm that’s not chasing convection out to the Flemish cap that stalls near the cape does make more sense than these outlandish solutions we’ve been seeing. Just thinking out loud here.

I’m far western Hartford county..I’ll take 6-8

It’s over Johnny…perfect end to the winter that never was.

GFS is a nothing burger. RGEM is an inch or two(nothing burger), but ya that model sucks. Euro wasn’t very good for most today. Duel lows and way east lows aren’t gonna do much for us. Things have devolved for CT outside of NW corner. Sure a 2-4 inch/3-5” for most areas away from the water is doable..::::::but we’ll see what 0z says.

Tip agrees with you…maybe 0z comes roaring back like last night…Ray was so pumped, and everybody was, but then it all fell apart today for the most part(except for CMC and NAM).

That GEFS is a great look imo. That would kick ass.

Don’t bother. 10 plus you blow.

Ya it was sounding like they think it’s gonna be a major storm. Sounds good anyway.

Dam..I know. Some maps have me at 8-10(Euro), some at a foot, some at 14-18+(NAM’s)…, NWS (BOX) has me at 4”. Take my pick right.

Oh ok….I don’t know what to think anymore?

That shows a foot here…that’s more than an hour of snow…? Lol.

Lol you just said it’s a massive hit. If its a big step back, then 12z must have been Armageddon.

And this is where I have my issues with the Euro now. After 2 am when the Euro showed a monster…the old Euro would have held that solution, and you’d be able to take the big solution to the bank, and right into go time two days later. Now at barely two days out…it’s Jumping around like it never used to before..this is what is sad.