LakeEffectKing

It's trying.

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, @LakeEffectKing, we got an honorable mention from BGM in their discussion!  

 

A short window of lake effect
snow looks somewhat favorable Monday night, and may produce a
couple inches of snow from around Baldwinsville to Cazenovia.

Yeah....after being outside all day today, it's hard to give it up...happens every time around this time of year. But I wouldn't turn down a biggie, anytime.

Couple gusts near 50 up here at 1200'...still 66° in Caz.

Was in Fayetteville about 20 min. ago. Car thermometer was 70°.

Pivitol has their pay items for the public until further notice...ie euro kuchie etc...

13 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I’m all for anything over 6”+ at this time of the year. Anything less than that is just an annoyance that melts within a day anyways. 

4.5" in Caz. overnight. Quite the nice surprise!!

1 hour ago, vortmax said:

 I'm still in! 

Me too...even at my aging 54 y.o. body...I can still out shovel any Jeb wannabe..

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Miss Dave schwartz. He passed to young.

Yep...a little goofy...a little annoying...a little over the top....

..a combination that just made you want to watch him....

RIP....

Looks like several areas of convergence will be moving through all of central New York area...

Nice ending here too..7.5" total. 5" overnight. 2.5" during the day...still mood flakes falling....kinda what I was expecting around here. 

Heavy sleet here last hr. or so.

Pounding right now and it looks like I'm right on the edge of a sleet pocket. 

5" in Cazanovia since 12:30 AM. 

Keep all toasters away in SNE....

This looks like a region wide 5 to 9" event  for Western and Central New York.   I would expect some 10 to 12" amounts in higher elevations of the northern Catskills and Southern Adirondacks.... Maybe near 10" around Wolfie....

16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So I take umbrage with the Euro. It’s south of the other models which means the warm air tongue isn’t in play which means a colder overall solution .4 at KBUF but 4”? 10-1? Toss. It would equate with ratios of 15-1 to 7”. 

How do you toss a rip and read 10:1 ratio???  I get that you think ratios might be higher deeper in the cold air, but a 10:1 ratio map is ALWAYS going to be wrong for some...no matter what an independent model outputs for qpf....it's just essentially a first guesstimate...

And I honestly think ratios don't do any better than 12:1 no matter where you are within the airmass...the DGZ is shallow with weak lift (omega)....

39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Kuchera looks like 20:1 ratios over Southern Ontario and 15ish:1 in CNY. With this being a SWFE, I fully expect snowflake size to suck and for us to be closer to 10:1 ratios. Once the lake gets involved on the backside, those ratios will increase.

Yuuuup...

9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Anyone else having issues with tropical tidbits?

Yep

11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

18z runs were awful for any chance. It was already very slim and this just shut the door. 

18z Gem???

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

H5 was a big improvement from 6z run, but yeah still too little too late verbatim.

Need to sample the northern stream wave....extrapolating Rgem and Nam would have to have lp further west....and euro ensembles earlier hinted at a stronger wave... just interesting att...

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You think this will trend way further west ?

Yep....

Don't give up on Sunday/Monday...

.

1.5 in Caz....slightly surprised when I came home.