LakeEffectKing

sorry, contrary to forum rules, I posted this graph without an explanation.

This is not good("I have a bad feeling about this.").

I'm thinking a couple of cows were hanging out by the monitor....but it's just a hypothesis....

Having read the back and forth in this thread, I think it's time for all parties to switch to decaf. Vergent, thank you for posting the link to the article. It is interesting and alarming - but it's just a news article. It's not peer-reviewed science . . . heck, it's not even non-peer-reviewed science. It is a news article which was written to grab the readers' attention. And I confess it did so.

I hope all parties can agree that before anybody can assess how significant and serious this methane release is we need real data. We don't know the extent of the venting, the amount of methane being released, or (worst case) whether this is an indication that the massive arctic methane deposits are becoming unstable. Hopefully the Russian researhers will publish their results soon. Until then it is largely pointless to speculate. Methane leaks are not new - you can search youtube and find lots of alarming videos. Here's the url to a video of

in the summer of 2007. If the newly discovered vents are reaching the surface I expect they look like a larger version of these vents. And here's a video on 'The Door to Hell', a methane leak that's been burning for over thirty years.

For those skeptical and denialist posters who keep singing "Don't worry, be happy!" - you might want to do some reading on Extinction Events and how methane releases have been implicated in several of them. Wikipedia has a good article on the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis which provides link for further reading. Here's an excerpt from that article:

One exception, however, may be in clathrates associated with the

Arctic ocean

, where clathrates can exist in shallower water stabilized by lower temperatures rather than higher pressures; these may potentially be marginally stable much closer to the surface of the sea-bed, stabilized by a frozen 'lid' of

permafrost

preventing methane escape. Recent research carried out in 2008 in the Siberian Arctic has shown millions of tons of methane being released, apparently through perforations in the seabed permafrost,

^[11]

with concentrations in some regions reaching up to 100 times normal.

^[12]

^[13]

The excess methane has been detected in localized hotspots in the outfall of the

Lena River

and the border between the

Laptev Sea

and the

East Siberian Sea

. Some melting may be the result of geological heating, but more thawing is believed to be due to the greatly increased volumes of meltwater being discharged from the Siberian rivers flowing north.

^[14]

Current methane release has previously been estimated at 0.5

Mt

per year.

^[15]

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400

Gt

of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open

taliks

. They conclude that "release of up to 50

Gt

of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve,

^[16]

^[17]

equivalent in

greenhouse effect

to a doubling in the current level of CO

₂

.

Remember, these methane vents are in addition to the warming caused by our fossil fuel use so if the article is true we could see a much larger rise in global temperatures over the next few decades.

So, for now, let's see what the researchers can tell us. I think we'll still have time for panic if it's warranted.

LMAO!! Classic!

LEK,

The magnitude of ocean oscillations is significantly greater short term than any greenhouse warming could be. Who knows what the next few decades will bring? In the longer run the greenhouse warming will prevail because it adds energy to the system while internal variability does not.

I know that does not meet your required test of AGW, but the physics is what it is.

You missed my question....Does this recent discovery of an "explosion" of methane that the OP is hyping, indicate a heightened fear or is this just part of the "normal" AGW apocalyptic fear? I'm getting the feeling from reading this thread that I should take shelter.....

Well, if anything, this "alarming" release should provide a further testing for global temperatures.

So does this mean that the thoughts recently opined by many AGW proponents (that we may have a 2 decade stall in global temps) are out the window??? Or is this explosive methane release already factored in? What's the prediction NOW for the next few decades....because as it sounds like right now, if we have stable temperatures over the next 2 decades, it would be consistent with AGW....or if we have rapid warming, it will be DUE to AGW.

All I have to say is wow.. A sub 970mb low tucked under LI is ideal for these parts. Lets hope the 12z euro holds firm with this.

If the Euro verifies as depicted, you guys get a once in 50 year or more storm! Sub 970, slowing down, originating from the GOM....30"+ amounts would be common....esp. in the hills.....let's all breathe!!!! Even in CNY, less qpf, but better ratios.....probably 18"