LakeEffectKing

Even heavier now probably close to 3" per hour. Beautiful dendrites. 

Current situation..1-2"/hr.

Woke up to 9.25" of new. Still rippin'.

13" for event. 120" for season.

3" total here.   Poundtown right now!!

So as many of you guys know, I grew up 4.5 miles east of Parish for most of my first 40 years.

Great LES location, averages around 180".  Just north and east by 5-8 miles up through Happy Valley, averages go up quickly to above 200"

Snowing nicely in Caz. currently. Nice fatties falling.

So far, storm total is: 12"

5" Friday night +

3" Yesterday+

4" Last night.

107" on season.

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Incredible photo, was this the EF4 that hit winterset? 

Yes....

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

About 3" here.  Precip has barely made it into Eastern NY it looks, slow moving front i guess.  Now that the sun is up, guessing the accum is about over since rates aren't impressive.  KALY and KBGM forecasts could be way overdone at this point with just a weak wave riding up thr front.

 Hammering pretty good still here in Caz.. up to about 5" now.. Roads are pretty much all snow covered.

Buddy of mine who transplanted to Iowa, snapped this pic from his yard.  Tornado missed his house by a few miles.

3.5" in Caz. with moderate snow currently. 

3 minutes ago, vortmax said:

More amped? 

Maybe...moreover vs NAM output...but just nowcasting/obseving.

Radar versus the 18Z nam at the same time.  

A little more of a bend in the radar presentation vs 18z Nam output down in AK, MO and IL.

Looking at the forecasted soundings, I think ratios should be decent 12-14:1 for WNY by 1am, and similar ratios around 6-9am for CNY.  

It'll be interesting to see what the 12Z runs do with that northern piece of energy.   It originated from the Arctic Circle and is now in the upper air observation network of northern Canada.  We shouldn't see too much of a change in the Southern stream, as it has been in the network of the Western US for a run or 2 too now.

FWIW, Looks like 6z GEM shifted precip a touch west.  However, it could be a slight timing change in speed of wave.

00z

6z

4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

18z Euro. Axis near identical to 12z but snow amounts cut down a bit in some areas.

 

Tonight's runs hopefully deliver the goods.

Keeping expectations a bit low, knowing that nothing will change the progressive aspect of the event. But hopefully some super 6-10 hr. dynamic fun.

4" in Caz.

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

GFS

 I approve!

47 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Haha, I don't think LEK knows he quad-posted...

Lol...I only wanted to post it 3 times...for the slow ones here!

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ok, I think we get it. 

Lol....stupid phone.

1 hour ago, vortmax said:

The Euro is very positively tilted. Yuk. Really hoping for a big one. When does the energy get onshore?

Well, one piece is coming from the arctic, the other from near the Bering sea.

If the threat becomes larger for Wednesday's event, someone should start a thread for that as well.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

This would be our first and only thread, on the C Pa forum, on fake snow :-) 

Lol!

I haven't started one of these in a long time.  Trying to change it up.

New thread. 

Models increasing threat.