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BlueRidgeFolklore

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Everything posted by BlueRidgeFolklore

  1. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Heck, the NAM just showed a thump here. There is no way that can be right. No way!
  2. BlueRidgeFolklore
    As it appears, the 18z is in fact correcting itself. Right on the money again HT! Are they drunk?
  3. BlueRidgeFolklore
    The escarpment in general is looking great. I say in terms of inhabited areas (not Mt. Pisgah, or Mitchell), high elevations along the escarpment are going to see a boat load. Highlands, Sapphire, Balsam Grove, Bearwallow Mtn, and obviously going up into the Spruce Pine and Blowing Rock areas.
  4. BlueRidgeFolklore
    I'd say somewhere between the 2. Fletcher or Skyland, maybe somewhere around the airport. I say that only because Asheville proper can sometimes be prone to getting snowholed if warmer air travels down the FB River Valley from the NW. Honestly, if you can find an AirBNB around Bearwallow Mountain. I think that will be the SweetSpot!
  5. BlueRidgeFolklore
    I use 'tiebreaker' loosely. Better wording would likely be if the Euro looks good, do we toss the NAM for now?
  6. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Thanks!
  7. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Ukie looks good too. So CMC, GFS, FV3, Ukie all look like good hits for WNC. NAM at the outer fringe of it's range does not. Euro will be the tiebreaker?
  8. BlueRidgeFolklore
    HT, quick question regarding the FV3. I know it's going to be operational in a few weeks and we'd might as well use it but how far do you trust it?
  9. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Look how JUICY!!!!
  10. BlueRidgeFolklore
    We're still dealing with a ton of moisture. I still like where we sit.
  11. BlueRidgeFolklore
    I'll agree if the QPF amounts continue to trend lower however one thing HT has stressed time and time again is not to hug snow totals on the models but rather look at QPF. If we're still dealing with 2-3" of moisture with any amount of CAD signature, after you factor in dynamic cooling, this is going to be a doozy. We also must factor in climo as well.
  12. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Freezing rain would definitely cut down accumulation totals in the Northern French Broad.
  13. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Mainly from the nortwest where CAD has little effect. That's the snowhole in Madison County, N Asheville that we usually see with these storms.
  14. BlueRidgeFolklore
    That's where I find solace right now. If it were one of the global models, I'd have one foot over Looking Glass. However, it was the NAM.
  15. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Me after the NAM run:
  16. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Generally with this setup, the French Broad River Valley only gets dry slotted around N AVL heading into Madison County. In Transylvania County heading into NW Henderson County, those people usually get hammered.
  17. BlueRidgeFolklore
    I'm going with 2000', right along the escarpment.
  18. BlueRidgeFolklore
    They were bullish for WNC in January 2016 storm but even then the totals crept up as we got closer. I don't think it's wishcasting to say these totals will go up when the Euro is showing 12" probabilities for KAVL at 100%. My gut just tells me based off experience, that these (for the Mountains only) are their conservative numbers.
  19. BlueRidgeFolklore
    I have never seen GSP put out a map this bullish 3-4 days out. Heck, I'm not even sure the wave has been properly sampled yet. Rest assured this is a warning shot. These totals WILL go up for the mountains.
  20. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Interesting start times now with it being bumped up to Saturday AM. That aligns with what HT alluded to yesterday.
  21. BlueRidgeFolklore
    I don't foresee it being an issue for the central mountains as much as it will be for southwestern mountains. This is usually a favorable setup for the AVL, HVL area.
  22. BlueRidgeFolklore
    15-18". HT said so.
  23. BlueRidgeFolklore
    HT, that was an incredible write up.
  24. BlueRidgeFolklore
    First, 'First Call' map I've seen.
  25. BlueRidgeFolklore
    Jason Boyer update is still sticking to 10-20+ for the majority of mountains outside the far southwestern portion.
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