thunderbolt

That’s fair, but when all said, and done this year’s gonna be known as a strong El Niño, not super no ifs or butts about it

You shouldn’t call people names that’s not nice Ben Noll always uses OISST not CRW. With weeks and weeks of warming (WWBs/DWKWs) yet to go, it's obvious at this point that it's going to exceed +2.0C. @roardog He used the CRW SST map yes, but he uses OFFICIAL readings (OISST). The last OISST on cyclonicwx was in the verge of going above +1.8C. Nice troll

022-1.0-0.9-1.0-1.1-1.0-0.9-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.82023-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.50.81.11.31.61.81.9

Did you see November came in at 1.9 ME 2023-2024 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9

Not with all that cold water coming up I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think it’s over you need three months of 2.0 to clarify as a super not gonna happen

Thanks I’ll try my best. Maybe you and I could sit down and have a beer and we can talk about next year

For those who were picking the super not happening, maybe next year -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 WL 2017-2018 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 WE 2018-2019 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2019-2020 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 ML 2020-2021 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 ML 2021-2022 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 WL 2022-2023 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.8 ME 2023-2024 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 ENSO Type Season JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ

How’s your 2.3 working out for you? And you’re super El Niño not gonna happen when all said and done you’re gonna lose anyway, I hope you have a great new year

Bye-bye

Lol

That won’t last long it will be below 2 in let’s say two weeks at max

Relax buddy I didn’t mention your name

No, it’s not I guess for those who were predicting a super El Niño now I guess they will just have to wait for the next El Niño for those who were predicting a strong El Niño Congratulations.

https://x.com/chris88808568/status/1735098825801433259?s=42&t=9oYN55kJQkQ18l6qbtT9mw It’s over for those who are predicting a super El Niño

Nice work there GA

By chance do you have a composite that shows a warm look with a .5 or greater with El Niño

That also goes for number two

One is not a warm phase for December

Did you post your outlook ?

Phase1 when El Niño is greater than .5

Lol

As we've discussed extensively in our recent client reports and Webinars, while ocean temperatures are suggestive of a strong El Nino event, the atmospheric response in the central/eastern tropical Pacific looks nothing like other recent strong El Nino events. Here, you can see the tropical atmospheric response, illustrated by the 200 mb velocity potential, from the month of October for 1982, 1997, 2015, and 2023. You don't have to completely comprehend what the heck velocity potential is to see that the 2023 event has a much weaker, more smeared signal in the central/eastern tropical Pacific than the other events did. The previous events were characterized by strong rising motion (blues/purples) east of the dateline, while the current event is characterized by weaker rising motion closer to the dateline. tweet from Todd Crawford

Yes, I don’t know how far west it’s going to be from there, but regardless, it should be on a dirty side of the storm storm surge should be pretty intense with definitely some heavy rains and very strong winds

David Birch ocean, data analyst