yotaman

Stalling off the coast and slowly moving down it is much better than slamming onshore. Worst of the winds stay off shore and between land interaction and upwelling, the storm will weaken quickly. This is the best scenario for much of us, especially my area. 

6 minutes ago, wake4est said:

The new nhc cone seems like the best choice given model data.

Much slower now. Calling for a 2 pm landfall on Friday instead of a Thursday night/early Friday morning landfall. Also looks to be a tick southwest than at 2 pm.

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Is it me or has the path shifted more NW and east once on shore?

Not you, I see it too. Much closer to MHC now. Not good for us at all.

10 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Governor ordered mandatory evac effective noon tomorrow.

Ok, that explains it.

24 minutes ago, sctvman said:

All of the Walmarts in the Charleston area are closing at midnight tonight and are not opening till the storm passes. 

12 minutes ago, MaryB said:

A friend in Myrtle Beach posted on Facebook that the Walmarts there are closing at 11:30 tonight and not reopening for an unspecified time.

That is ridiculous. That's 2 whole days of sales they will lose not to mention those who still want to go out and supplement what they have. 

12 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

 

I bought one off of Amazon and expect it Wednesday.

3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

I am likely in the market for a generator tomorrow too.  Point of clarification on the above post and based on local media, Carteret is just maditory on the barrier islands starting in the AM.  Tomorrow is the action day for the coast, Wednesday would be for prone interior.  Indland counties will likely put out voluntaries as Beaufort is already doing

According to WCTI it is for the entire county. For some reason I cannot attach the link.

Just saw that Carteret County NC is under Mandatory evacuation for all cities and towns in the county. This starts tomorrow morning

Pamlico county is under Mandatory evacuation beginning tomorrow at 3pm.

3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

HWRF is terrible for us.......6 hrs after landfall solidly in the north eyewall.....

 

That is horrible for me. I am in the eastern eyewall. See where 35N and 77W meet. That is approximately where I live.

Found this on another forum. Super closeup of the eye. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25

Finally broke down and bought a Inverter Generator for $385 from Amazon with delivery Wednesday. The wind from this has me worried especially since models seem to be moving this slowly northward along the coast. But we will see.

6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

FV3 has actuaslly been crazy consistent the last 5 runs 

Did you pull the trigger on your generator yet? I am still debating.

18 minutes ago, weatherbubba said:

Hello, I'm a long time lurker and infrequent poster here and I've been following the discussion here

on Florence.  I will be very interested to see if the newest Euro model run follows what seems to be

the trend on some of the other models, in particular, the GFS which has stalled Florence near the

Outer Banks for its last two runs.  The last Euro run showed a Fran type track which would spell

disaster for the Raleigh area where I live.  I am still hoping is that Florence will turn more north and

further out to sea but unless it strengthens more rapidily than forecast or the high pressure ridge

is weaker, it looks like North Carolina is in for a hard time later this week.  I know today's forecast

models aren't gospel, especially four to five days out, but it looks like NC will not be able to dodge

Hurricane Florence and its effects.

Welcome. I don't buy the GFS. Not because it stalls it out but because it stalls it out and actually strengthens it to a cat 5 while sitting there. No way can those waters maintain that strong of a storm with all the upwelling and land interaction that would happen with a big and strong storm.

18 minutes ago, ander420 said:

Funny I hit home depot this morning to get more charcoal, a new grill grate, couple more extension cords and a gas can.  They still had about 8 generators and no real sense of urgency there.  It was early (8 am) but I figured there would be more concern.  I swung by Target afterwards to get some more water and a few essentials just to beat the rush and...there wasnt one.  Maybe it will change tomorrow but as of this morning all quiet.

 

 

I went to Lowes to see what generators they had and all they had was 1 type at $750 so I left. I don't need nor want a 200lb generator. The store was packed and I have heard that our local Walmarts were selling water like there was no tomorrow. People are actually scared of this one and several people on my street are already planning on leaving. I am staying put, hard to find a hotel that will allow 3 dogs with 2 of them being large.

10 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

So the main thread needs a mod or two badly....time to go scorched earth over there......

GFS smokin crack crazy loop and dumps a insane amount of rain.....that plus the constant onshore flow would back the rivers up with surge and just make this friggen terrible....good thing this is a pretty unlikely scenario...at least the OBX wouldnt need to worry about flooding from the 3 ft of rain they get since surge would already be taking care of the flooding....

That is just unreal. 35.3" for me and almost 50" for Hatteras!! That model also has it hanging around as a cat 4 for 3 to 4 days. Very unlikely.

18 minutes ago, JoshM said:

I just can't even imagine what 20"+ rain and gale to hurricane force winds would do to the trees and power lines in our area if that were to happen!!

48 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Never fear i am about to order a generator off Amazon for Wed delivery this will all but assure the storm will not hit eastern NC....

I as going to do the same but since you are I guess I no longer need it. Thanks.

On ‎9‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 12:29 PM, franklin NCwx said:

Why not just live above 4000ft in nc? 

Both sides of the family tried to convince her that but she likes living far away from everyone for some odd reason. All relatives are here in NC.

My stepdaughter just moved up to Watertown NY cause she hates heat and humidity so much and now she is complaining that it is too hot and humid up there. It's been in the mid to upper 80's there recently. They have no A/C.

Ughhhh. Almost a whole week with temps at or below freezing during the DAY and not even a chance of a flurry. I hate this area. Ughhhhh

Alight icing is ok and very beautiful in the morning sunlight but major ice storms, absolutely not. Lots of tree and power line damage.