TSG

DAMN it's cold out there. Walking at lunch was not very fun.

We're currently running about 6-7 degrees below the forecast down this way. Seems unlikely we get even close to the forecast high of 54(??) with it being 40 at 1:30pm. What guidance was Sterling looking at?? Jumping back through the NAM runs from yesterday, none had Cville above about 46-47 for this afternoon.

40/5

Some impressive temp anomalies on the GFS for next week. Charlottesville looks to be below 40F from late Monday night through sunrise Thursday. Most of Tuesday we sit around freezing 

30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

First thunder of the year down in Charlottesville.

And lots of it. I've heard 5+ strikes in the past 30min, some within a mile or two

On 3/14/2022 at 2:09 PM, mattie g said:

I haven't seen a signature on this site since I first signed up and set my settings to ignore all signatures. They're the worst.

Says the guy rocking an 8 year old signature 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

just took the dog out to the backyard...looks like 4 inches or so...

awful, send it back

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

HRRR has it snowing until 4pm? 

Check out what's happening down here near Cville on radar. Lots of lift coming through in the next few hours. These bands are the real deal.

edit: Culpeper is about to get smoked

SN/SN+ in Charlottesville ahead of this band coming in from the West, all but paved surfaces have caved. Wind picking up finally.

32/31

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m calling this a blizzard and nobody can stop
me. Howling winds, snow blowing off the rooftops.

you made the right choice heading back to Arlington, so far pretty boring down this way. No real wind to speak of yet.

I do like that the HRRR has some back-building that keeps the snow on until early afternoon

Seems to be all snow in Cville. Ratios not great in-between bands. Fatties mixing in

32/31

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just because there’s no cold pattern on the horizon after Sunday doesn’t mean it won’t hit freezing again! Last freeze even in the cities is usually at least late March? 

March 29 for CHO

CHO hit 81 off and on for ~20 mins starting around 1:15 today. Beautiful breeze out there. I love windy days like this.

Cold is holding strong down this way. Only 45F at CHO at 1pm after a low of 29.

56 minutes ago, George BM said:

IAD has reached 76F as of a few minutes ago.

78 in Charlottesville! Busting way high

Is this what we're doing now? Winter is over? Fine with me, I'm ready to get some sun.

A+ January in Charlottesville, we averaged 3.0F below average from Jan 3rd-31st and depending on what measurements you look at it was somewhere in the top 5-10 range for Jan snowfall since 1920.  I measured ~18.5" at my place. Hadn't seen an epic pattern like that since living in DC in 2015. We also got REALLY lucky with the mid-month storm. Never got above freezing here during that event so we maintained the snowpack for about 4 weeks straight. Would've been nice to have another 1-2 storms to track, but I broke my thumb skiing late Jan so the season ended for me then and there... bring on severe season!

Overall winter rating: B, short but sweet for western-central VA

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Very slowly but surely winter is becoming JFM more than DJF.

I do agree things seem to be shifting a bit if looking at the last 5-10 years, but winter in the Mid-Atlantic has always been much better predicted by astronomical winter (Dec 21 - Mar 20) than meteorological winter (Dec 1 - Feb 28). 

17 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

ONE YEAR AGO: The "Spring Snowstorm of 2018" (wmar2news.com) The more I'm researching it the more conflicting info I see. Some places report warning criteria, others not. Guess it varied backyard to backyard. My backyard probably didn't actually break warning criteria based on these totals, though other parts of the city did. Which would mean I haven't seen a warning snowfall since moving to Baltimore a month before that storm, and Baltimore hasn't gotten a flush verified warning criteria snowfall since 2016 I think.

I remember that storm well. Huge disappointment in DC proper, warm layer ended up pushing north way faster than projected (classic). We got like 3" of sleet after a half inch of snow

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Snowing in CHO.

Big fat fluffy dendrites! Immediately sticking

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Ground a little white and cars a little topped in Charlottesville. Doubt we’re moving beyond a trace but I guess you never know

HRRR shows a strong band moving through around 12-1. I think a quick inch is still doable

Congrats to the Northern crew, y'all deserved this one. White rain in Cville since I got up at 7. Hoping those heavier bands to our SW come through and give us a quick coating-1"

00z HRRR is running 

One more hour until the long range HRRR 

Someone with Euro access, want to post some boundary layer temp maps from start of precip?

I'm curious what it's predicting vs the GFS

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya ain't wrong. Albeit even medication can only go so far...gotta get to the root of the obsession. When ya got folks that actually have lives still get hung up over snow...ya know it goes deep, lol If some of us don't learn to just let go, it will indeed emotional energy wasted. But it doesn't start with the weather models it starts in the mind. I know I for one can feel the addictive part of this coming as soon as there's a threat. But the key is what happens after that.

When it comes...can you let go? Can you just let the weather do what it does? When the models honk at a threat, what are the steps to take to not...get too attached? So that if the threat trends unfavorably, or goes poof, there's not that emotional hangover, nor angst on the Zs? All questions I'm certain not all of us have mastered yet. Going from needing it to snow to wanting it to snow could be part of it.

I'd be willing to bet we could do an untrained group therapy on here, lol Ain't nobody else experienced it like some of us...why not talk about it sometime?

you might get the "most improved" award for any regular poster on here. It takes a while but you learn to roll with the punches. I certainly was waaaay more emotionally tied to chasing when I started in college. Bob Chill is the best example of what we should all strive for, he knows when it's time to care and model watch and when it isn't

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Snow is serious bidness evidently.

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

so you're saying a good indica (or part of a gummy) can help?

asking for a friend.

it definitely takes the edge off bad model runs